Dublin, OH - As a new DCWS year prepares to unfold beginning June 29, the Dublin Coffman Weather Service's Winter Storm Center, Storm Forecasting Center, and Hurricane Center have put out their seasonal forecasts for the remainder of hurricane season from summer through the end of fall, the second half of the tornado season in the fall, and the winter storm season which begins in the very late fall and continues until early spring.
Hurricane Season - Near average hurricane numbers with a total, including Alberto and Beryl, of...
*9-13 Named Storms
*5-8 Hurricanes
*2-4 Major Hurricanes
Tornado Season - Near average second half of season following the significantly below average first half in the spring. Specific numbers are not available for tornado seasonal forecasts.
Winter Storm Season - Near average winter storm numbers. Probably somewhere along the lines of...
*25-30 Named Storms
*4-7 Ice Storms
*5-10 Blizzards
*1-3 Sleet Storms
*10-15 Major (At or above Lv.3) Storms
*Additionally, specifically to the Dublin City Schools school district, a forecast of a Near average total of 2-3 calamity days has been declared. These, however, are not purely based on climatological factors. City response times, plowing efficiency, stocks of grit and snowplows, and decision-making and judgement on the part of the mayor and superintendent all have an impact on this forecast. As a result, it has been known to be less accurate than other seasonal forecasts.
All DCWS forecast centers wish to remind the public that these seasonal forecasts cannot and do not predict if, when, and where an individual storm strikes or makes landfall. It only takes one bad storm to make for the worst season your area has ever had.
Additionally, The DCWS Storm Forecasting Center has another urgent message for the public in Central Ohio. For the remainder of the summer, a drought is expected to continue to tighten its grip on the area. The conditions for a drought were first set in motion when the lack of activity in the last winter storm season caused very little meltwater from the final snowpack. A only moderately rain spring ensued, followed by a stoppage of rain in mid may. Since the stoppage, only a quarter to a half inch of rain has fallen per isolated storm, and the storms are occurring only every 1-2 weeks. Drought has spread rapidly into the region over the past 2 weeks, and a D0 minor drought has set up camp over the region. As conditions deteriorate up until fall, the drought will likely intensify to at least D1 or D2 conditions.
