JohnnyParker's Blog

Tropical Depression Eleven forms, watching Caribbean Sea, more rain later this week

By: JohnnyParker, 12:24 PM GMT on September 30, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 64 and it feels like 64. Highs will continue to range between 69 and 85 with lows between 50 and 63. There is a 30% chance of AM showers today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, a slight chance of rain on Friday, and a 40% chance of showers on Saturday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 65 and it feels like 65. Todays high is 75 and a low of 63 with a 50% chance of AM showers. Tuesdays high is 84 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around October 4th-15th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eleven has winds of 35mph with a pressure of 1010mbars. Movement is East at 5mph. Is expected to become a tropical storm by later today, and is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles South-Southwest of Jamaica is accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance remains disorganized, and development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves slowly Northwestward. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development when the system moves over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Haiti and Jamaica today, and will likely spread across the Cayman Islands and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Monday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Watching areas in Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, slight rain chance over next few days

By: JohnnyParker, 11:49 AM GMT on September 27, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 60 and it feels like 60. Highs will continue to range between 78 and 86 with lows between 53 and 62. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Northeast MS until 9am this morning. There is a slight chance of rain on Sunday, a 40% chance of showers on Monday, a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, and a slight chance of rain on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 69 and it feels like 69. Todays high is 85 with a low of 61. Fridays high is 85.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 30th-October 12th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, a large area of cloudiness and showers located over the tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles East of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. Significant development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves Northwestward and then Northward at about 15 to 20mph. After that time, conditions will be only marginally conducive for development, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Southwestern Coast of Mexico. Some slow development is possible over the next couple of days while the low moves Westward at 5 to 10mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for development by early next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are still possible near the Southwestern Mexico for another day or two.

Hope yall are having a great Friday and I'll have another post Monday morning.

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No rain over next few days, Atlantic quiet, development in Eastern Pacific possible

By: JohnnyParker, 11:26 AM GMT on September 26, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Highs will continue to range between 77 and 85 with lows between 51 and 60. There is a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, a 30% chance of a few showers on Monday, a slight chance of rain on Tuesday, a slight chance of rain on Wednesday, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 69 and it feels like 69. Todays high is 85 with a low of 61. Fridays high is 85.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 30th-October 11th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days. In the Eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico. Development does not appear likely during the next couple of days, and The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves West-Northwestward at about 10mph. The low is expected to turn Westward by the weekend, and some development is possible before upper-level winds become less conducive early next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Thursday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Development in Eastern Pacific later this week, dry for a few days

By: JohnnyParker, 12:13 PM GMT on September 25, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 77 and 85 with lows between 56 and 60. There is a slight chance of rain today, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, a slight chance of rain on Monday, a slight chance of rain on Tuesday, a slight chance of rain on Wednesday, and a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Thursday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Todays high is 82 and a low of 62 with a slight chance of rain. Thursdays high is 85.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 30th-October 10th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days. In the Eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located near the Coast of South-Central Mexico. Shower activity associated with the low remains disorganized, and development is not likely during the next couple of days due to its proximity to land. When the low moves away from the Coast of Mexico late this week, environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Southern and Southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Hope yall are having a great Wednesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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More rain today, and quiet now in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific

By: JohnnyParker, 12:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 77 and 84 with lows between 53 and 65. There is a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms today, and a slight chance of rain tomorrow. Some storms could be strong to severe with isolated wind gusts of 40-50mph being the main threat. Secondary threats will be for heavy rain of 1-2 inches with locally 2+ inches, and flash flooding. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 72 and it feels like 72. Todays high is 78 and a low of 65 with a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Wednesdays high is 84 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 27th-October 9th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Tuesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Atlantic/Eastern Pacific quiet, more rain/storms tomorrow

By: JohnnyParker, 12:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 53 and it feels like 53. Highs will continue to range between 77 and 85 with lows between 51 and 64. There is a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds of 50-60mph being the main threat. Secondary threats will be for heavy rain of 1-2 inches with locally 2+ inches, and flash flooding. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Todays high is 75 and a low of 53 with a 50% chance of AM showers. Sundays high is 79.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 27th-October 8th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure is located a couple hundred miles East of Brownsville, Texas. Shower activity has diminished due to unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air, and development of this low is not expected. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it begins to drift Northeastward. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Monday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Nice rains across the Southeast, two areas in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific quiet

By: JohnnyParker, 11:29 AM GMT on September 21, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 68 and it feels like 68. Highs will continue to range between 74 and 84 with lows between 52 and 63. There is an 80% chance of AM rain today, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Todays high is 75 and a low of 53 with a 50% chance of AM showers. Sundays high is 79.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 27th-October 6th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, the low pressure area over the extreme Western Gulf of Mexico, located about 50 miles South of Brownsville, Texas, is moving North at 10 to 15mph. Since the low continues to become less defined and producing only minimal shower and thunderstorm activity, no significant development is expected. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. After that time, the low is forecast to merge with a cold front in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure centered about 400 miles South-Southeast of Bermuda is producing a large, but disorganized area of cloudiness, showers, and a few thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds not conducive, some development is possible before the system merges with a cold front in a couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Saturday and I'll have another post Monday morning.

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Humberto and Manuel dissipate, development in Gulf looking unlikely

By: JohnnyParker, 11:56 AM GMT on September 20, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 67 and it feels like 67. Highs will continue to range between 76 and 91 with lows between 57 and 67. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms today, a 80% chance of AM thunderstorms tomorrow, a slight chance of rain on Sunday, and a slight chance of rain on Monday. Few storms could be strong to severe today and Saturday with small hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Secondary threats will be for heavy rain of 1-3 inches with locally 3+ inches possible and flash flooding. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Todays high is 88 and a low of 69 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Saturdays high is 78 with an 80% chance of AM thunderstorms.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 26th-October 5th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico centered about 100 miles East of Tuxpan, Mexico is producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and significant development of this system is becoming less likely. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves to the West-Northwest or Northwest at 5 to 10mph, and a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This disturbance will continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of Eastern and Southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Also, in the Atlantic, disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles South of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low pressure. Although upper-level winds do not appear conducive for significant tropical development, this disturbance could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves Northeastward and then Northward over the Western Atlantic through early next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Friday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Manuel becomes a hurricane, Humberto now a depression, and watching Gulf

By: JohnnyParker, 12:47 PM GMT on September 19, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 67 and it feels like 67. Highs will continue to range between 76 and 91 with lows between 57 and 67. There is a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a 70% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, a slight chance of rain on Sunday, and a slight chance of rain on Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe Saturday with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Secondary threats will be for heavy rain of 1-3 inches with locally 3+ inches possible and flash flooding. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 69 and it feels like 69. Todays high is 91 with a low of 66. Fridays high is 88 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 27th-October 4th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Humberto is weakening now and should dissipate within the next few days. Winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1009mbars. Movement is North at 8mph. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, an area of low pressure located over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the Coast of the Bay of Campeche. Conditions still appear conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or two, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours while it moves to the West-Northwestward to Northwestward at 5 to 10mph, and a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This disturbance will likely spread heavy rain over portions of Eastern and Southern Mexico and could cause life-threatening floods and mudslides over areas already impacted by torrential rain during the past several days. Also, in the Atlantic, cloudiness and showers located about midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda are associated with a frontal trough. Although upper-level winds do not appear conducive for significant tropical development, an area of low pressure is forecast to form in this area during the next couple of days. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves generally Northeastward over the Western Atlantic through early next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Manuel is located between the Coast of Mexico and the Southern Baja California Peninsula. Winds are at 75mph with a pressure of 987mbars. Movement is stationary. Is expected to make landfall late this evening in Mexico and will remain a slow mover. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Topolobampo, Mexico down to La Cruz, Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect form Topolobampo, Mexico to just North of there.

Hope yall are having a great Thursday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Humberto a weak tropical storm, Manuel returns, and development likely in Gulf

By: JohnnyParker, 11:34 AM GMT on September 18, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 76 and 92 with lows between 57 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday, a 70% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Todays high is 90 and a low of 66 with a slight chance of rain. Thursdays high is 91 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 22nd-October 3rd.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Humberto is expected to head up into the North Atlantic and dissipate by Saturday. Winds are at 40mph with a pressure of 1007mbars. Movement is North-Northwest at 8mph. Is not expected to become a hurricane and is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, satellite images and radar data from Mexico indicate that cloudiness and showers have become more concentrated near the center of an area of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move West-Northwestward and emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next day or two. Conditions should remain conducive for additional development through the weekend while the low meanders over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely spread heavy rains over portions of Eastern Mexico and could cause life-threatening floods and mudslides over areas already impacted by torrential rains during the past few days. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Manuel redeveloped yesterday afternoon. Winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1002mbars. Movement is Northwest at 5mph. Is expected to regain tropical storm intensity by late today and impact the Southern Baja California Peninsula by late Thursday night. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Altata, Mexico down to Mazatlan, Mexico, and from San Evaristo down to Cabo San Lucas on the Baja California Peninsula.

Hope yall are having a great Wednesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Ingrid dissipates over Mexico, Humberto weak, new development possible late week

By: JohnnyParker, 12:28 PM GMT on September 17, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 62 and it feels like 62. Highs will continue to range between 76 and 92 with lows between 57 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain today, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Saturday, a slight chance of rain on Sunday, and a slight chance of rain on Monday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 65 and it feels like 65. Todays high is 92 and a low of 68 with a slight chance of rain. Wednesdays high is 90 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 22nd-October 2nd.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Humberto is back. Winds are at 40mph with a pressure of 1007mbars. Movement is North-Northeast at 5mph. Is not expected to become a hurricane and is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure is accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to move slowly toward the West-Northwest and emerge over the Bay of Campeche tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be a little more favorable for development during the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low is likely to drift toward the West-Northwest over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the week and environmental conditions should continue to be generally conducive for some additional development during that time. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, a broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Manuel, is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms along the West-Central Coast of Mexico and adjacent waters. There are currently no signs of a well-defined surface circulation. However, environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some redevelopment of this system. This disturbance is forecast to move slowly Northwestward at about 5mph, and become nearly stationary close to the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula in a couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.

Hope yall are having a great Tuesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Hurricane Ingrid nearing landfall, Humberto expected to reform, and Manuel dissipates

By: JohnnyParker, 11:42 AM GMT on September 16, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 58 and it feels like 58. Highs will continue to range between 79 and 92 with lows between 60 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a slight chance of rain on Thursday, a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Saturday, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 59 and it feels like 59. Todays high is 92 with a low of 64. Tuesdays high is 92 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 22nd-October 1st.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Post-Tropical Storm Humberto is located about 1100 miles Southwest of the Azores Islands and is moving Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has changed little over the past several hours, but environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for regeneration into a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 90%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it turns Northward and Northeastward over the open Atlantic. Also, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Ingrid is nearing the Mexican Coastline. Winds are at 75mph with a pressure of 989mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 7mph. Ingrid is expected to make landfall in Mexico late this morning or by this afternoon. Primary threats from Ingrid will be life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches are possible with locally 25+ inches. Additional threats will be for gusty winds and rip currents. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from La Pesca, Mexico down to Cabo Rojo, Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from San Fernando, Mexico down to La Pesca, Mexico, and from Cabo Rojo, Mexico down to Tuxpan, Mexico. Also, in the Atlantic, a large area of disturbed weather is located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is expected to move generally Westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days where a broad area of low pressure could form by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development of this low. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet as Tropical Storm Manuel has dissipated.

Hope yall are having a great Monday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Gabrielle dissipates again, Humberto weak, Ingrid forms, and Manuel in East Pacific

By: JohnnyParker, 12:38 PM GMT on September 14, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 54 and it feels like 54. Highs will continue to range between 82 and 91 with lows between 52 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain on Tuesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 54 and it feels like 54. Todays high is 81 with a low of 52. Sundays high is 88.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-29th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Post-Tropical Storm Humberto has winds of 40mph with a pressure of 1004mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 13mph. Is expected to reform into a tropical storm by Monday and a hurricane by Thursday. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ingrid formed yesterday and is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday afternoon. Winds are at 65mph with a pressure of 989mbars. Movement is North-Northeast at 5mph. Current forecast track has Ingrid making landfall in mainland Mexico between late Sunday/early Monday. Either way, primary threats from Ingrid will be life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches are possible with locally 25+ inches. Additional threats will be for gusty winds and rip currents. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cabo Rojo, Mexico to Veracruz, Mexico down to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from La Pesca, Mexico down to Cabo Rojo, Mexico. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Manuel has winds of 45mph with a pressure of 996mbars. Movement is North at 6mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Manzanillo, Mexico down to Acapulco, Mexico. Is expected to make landfall on Sunday afternoon.

Hope yall are having a great Saturday and I'll have another post Monday morning.

Updated: 2:57 PM GMT on September 14, 2013

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Gabrielle weakens back to a depression, Humberto weakens, T.D. 10 major flood threat

By: JohnnyParker, 12:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 73 and it feels like 73. Highs will continue to range between 81 and 93 with lows between 53 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain today, and a slight chance of rain next Tuesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 72 and it feels like 72. Todays high is 84 and a low of 54 with a slight chance of rain. Saturdays high is 81.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-28th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Gabrielle has winds of 35mph with a pressure of 1007mbars. Movement is North-Northeast at 17mph. Gabrielle is expected to weaken and could dissipate by late tomorrow. Also, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto has winds of 75mph with a pressure of 984mbars. Movement is North-Northwest at 12mph. Is expected to weaken over the weekend. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Ten formed late yesterday. Winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1002mbars. Movement is West at 3mph. Is expected to become Tropical Storm Ingrid by later today and is expected to move very slowly. Current forecast track has Ingrid making landfall in mainland Mexico, but due to the slow, erratic movement of this storm, this track could change. Also, due to the very favorable environment this system is in, there is a possibility that this system could become a hurricane if it stays far enough from land. Either way, primary threats from Tropical Depression Ten will be life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches are possible with locally 25+ inches. Additional threats will be for gusty winds and rip currents. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Barra de Nautla, Mexico down to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Also, in the Atlantic, an area of low pressure located about 350 miles East of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Although surface pressures are low are lower than normal in this area, upper-level winds are not favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves toward the West-Northwest around 10mph. In the Eastern Pacific, a broad area of low pressure located near the coast of Mexico to the Southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the Northwest or North. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, this low, in combination with Tropical Depression Ten in the Bay of Campeche, will likely bring heavy rains to portions of Southern and Eastern Mexico during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Hope yall are having a great Friday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

Updated: 12:19 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

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Gabrielle weakens to a depression, Humberto intensifies, and Ingrid soon?

By: JohnnyParker, 12:02 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Highs will continue to range between 83 and 94 with lows between 53 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Todays high is 93 with a low of 70. Fridays high is 88.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-27th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Gabrielle has winds of 35mph with a pressure of 1010mbars. Movement is Northwest at 7mph. Gabrielle is expected to remain weak as it heads up toward Newfoundland, Canada by Saturday. Also, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto has winds of 85mph with a pressure of 982mbars. Movement is North at 14mph. Is expected to maintain hurricane intensity over the next two days, but is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Friday afternoon. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, satellite and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure has moved over the Southern Bay of Campeche where the shower activity has increased during the past few hours. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 80%, of becoming during the next 5 days. This system is forecast to move very slowly across the Southern Gulf of Mexico producing locally heavy rains over a large part of Eastern Mexico during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A reconnaissance plane is ready to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Also, in the Atlantic, the shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 500 miles East of the Leeward Islands remains limited. Although surface pressures are falling significantly in this area, environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable in several days, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves toward the West-Northwest. In the Eastern Pacific, a broad area of low pressure located just South and Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds and close proximity to land are expected to inhibit significant development during the next few days while this disturbance drifts Northward toward the Coast of Southern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, this system, in combination with another disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, will bring heavy rains to portions of Eastern Mexico for the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Hope yall are having a great Thursday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Gabrielle weakening, Humberto becomes first hurricane of season, watching Gulf

By: JohnnyParker, 11:49 AM GMT on September 11, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 68 and it feels like 68. Highs will continue to range between 80 and 93 with lows between 56 and 65. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Todays high is 92 with a low of 69. Thursdays high is 94.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-26th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has winds of 50mph with a pressure of 1008mbars. Movement is Northwest at 8mph. Gabrielle is expected to weaken as it heads up toward Newfoundland, Canada by Saturday. Also, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto has winds of 75mph with a pressure of 992mbars. Movement is -North-Northwest at 8mph. Is expected to intensify some over the next few days. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, a trough of low pressure along the Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough should move over land today and enter the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Some development is possible after the system emerges over water, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Assuming the system remains offshore, upper-level winds should be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the week, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 70%, of becoming during the next 5 days. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope you are having a great Wednesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Humberto intensifies, Gabrielle redevelops, development in Gulf possible by weekend

By: JohnnyParker, 11:43 AM GMT on September 10, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 73 and it feels like 73. Highs will continue to range between 83 and 94 with lows between 59 and 68. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 75 and it feels like 75. Todays high is 91 and a low of 70 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Wednesdays high is 91 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-25th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has redeveloped and has winds of 40mph with a pressure of 1008mbars. Movement is North at 14mph. Gabrielle is expected to make landfall in Bermuda early Wednesday morning and head up toward Newfoundland, Canada by Saturday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. Also, in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Humberto has intensified and should become a hurricane later today. Winds are at 65mph with a pressure of 998mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 9mph. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea is moving Westward at about 10mph. This disturbance is forecast to move across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche by late Thursday where an area of low pressure is expected to form. Environmental conditions should gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression by the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 60%, of becoming during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, all is quiet with no development expected over the next couple of days.

Hope yall are having a great Tuesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

Updated: 12:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013

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Humberto forms in Atlantic, could become our first hurricane by midweek

By: JohnnyParker, 12:01 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Highs will continue to range between 84 and 94 with lows between 59 and 70. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 72 and it feels like 72. Todays high is 94 and a low of 72 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. Tuesdays high is 93 with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 17th-24th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, an elongated area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Gabrielle, is located about 500 miles South-Southwest of Bermuda. Strong upper-level Westerly winds are displacing shower and thunderstorm activity to the East of the low, and no significant development is expected during the next few days while the low moves Northeastward or North-Northeastward. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Humberto has intensified a little. Winds are at 40mph with a pressure of 1005mbars. Movement is West at 12mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cape-Verde Islands. Is expected to become our first hurricane of the season by early Wednesday morning. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche or the extreme Southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions should be conducive for some development of this low around that time if it remains over water. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 30%, of becoming during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Eastern Mexico later this week. In the Eastern Pacific, a low pressure area could form South of the Coast of Mexico in a few days, and conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this disturbance by the end of the week while the low remains nearly stationary. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Southern Mexico and Guatemala later this week.

Hope yall are having a great Monday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

Updated: 12:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Lorena weakens, watching two disturbances in Atlantic

By: JohnnyParker, 12:30 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 65 and it feels like 65. Highs will continue to range between 81 and 95 with lows between 59 and 68. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Todays high is 94 with a low of 68. Sundays high is 96.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-22nd.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, satellite and surface data suggest that the low-level circulation associated with the remnants of Gabrielle has become better defined this morning. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains poorly organized due to strong-upper level winds. Environmental conditions could become more conducive while it moves Northward or Northeastward ahead of a cold front over the Western Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave over Western Africa is expected to move over the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday, and conditions appear favorable for development after that time. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, but a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This disturbance is expected to move Westward at around 10mph near the Cape-Verde Islands in the next couple of days, and then West-Northwestward over the open Eastern Atlantic. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Lorena has winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1007mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 8mph. Tropical Depression Lorena should dissipate later today.

Hope yall are having a great Saturday and I'll have another post Monday morning.

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Gabrielle dissipates in Atlantic, Lorena headed toward the Baja California Peninsula

By: JohnnyParker, 12:20 PM GMT on September 06, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 62 and it feels like 62. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 94 with lows between 63 and 68. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, and a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 65 and it feels like 65. Todays high is 92 with a low of 66. Saturdays high is 93.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-21st.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, a complex area of disturbed weather, which includes the remnants of Gabrielle, extends from the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles. Any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds and the proximity to dry air. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. Some development of this system is possible in a few days when the disturbance moves Northeastward ahead of a cold front over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico is approaching the Coast of Mexico near Tampico accompanied by a large, but disorganized area of cloudiness and a few squalls of winds to near tropical storm force. This system is expected to move inland before significant development can occur. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be spreading along the Coast of the Mexican States of Veracruz and Tamaulipas today. Also, in the Atlantic, a broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located about 600 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. However, development of this system is not likely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days while it moves to the West-Northwest at about 10mph. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave over Africa is expected to move over the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean in a day or two, and development of this system is possible late this weekend into early next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Lorena has intensified some. Winds are at 40mph with a pressure of 1005mbars. Movement is Northwest at 14mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Aqua Blanca up to Santa Fe, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Aqua Blanca down to Cabo San Lucas up to Buenavista. Tropical Storm Lorena is expected to make landfall on the Southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula late today.

Hope yall are having a great Friday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms in Atlantic, T.D. Twelve forms in Eastern Pacific

By: JohnnyParker, 11:33 AM GMT on September 05, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 62 and it feels like 62. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 94 with lows between 63 and 68. No rain is expected over the next couple of days. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 64 and it feels like 64. Todays high is 89 with a low of 64. Fridays high is 91.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-20th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed last night. Winds are at 40 with a pressure of 1008mbars. Movement is Northwest at 8mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for part of Southern Dominican Republic, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for part of the Northern Dominican Republic and all of Puerto Rico. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is forecasted to intensify over the next couple of days as it moves North toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Is not a threat to the United States, but could be a threat to Bermuda as it passes near the island late Monday/early Tuesday. Also, in the Atlantic, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough, extend from the Northeast Leeward Islands Northeastward over the Atlantic waters for several hundred miles. Any development of this system is expected to be limited due to its proximity to Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. Development is not expected after 48 hours, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, disorganized cloudiness and showers over the Eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche with a trough of low pressure that is moving Westward at 10 to 15mph. Development, if any, will be slow to occur before this system moves inland along the Coast of Mainland Mexico on Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave over Africa is expected to move over the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean in a couple of days, and some development of this system is possible over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Twelve-E has formed. Winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1006mbars. Movement is Northwest at 6mph. Tropical Depression Twelve-E is expected to intensify into a tropical storm later today and head up toward the Southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula.

Hope yall are having a great Thursday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Watching two disturbances in Atlantic, development likely in Eastern Pacific

By: JohnnyParker, 11:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 62 and it feels like 62. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 93 with lows between 62 and 67. No rain is expected over the next couple of days. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 64 and it feels like 64. Todays high is 88 with a low of 63. Thursdays high is 88.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-19th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, the broad area of low pressure over the Northeastern Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization over the past several hours. Upper-level winds appear favorable for some development over the next few days, but land interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico could inhibit tropical cyclone formation as the system moves West-Northwestward to Northwestward at around 10mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to affect portions of the Northern Lesser Antilles over the next day or so and spread over Puerto Rico by late Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave over the Eastern Bay of Campeche is moving Westward at 5 to 10mph. There is some potential for development, and The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system is centered about 150 miles South of Manzanillo have become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this low, and the formation of a tropical depression is likely during the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days while it moves West-Northwestward to Northwestward at around 10mph. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible along the Southwestern Coast of Mexico during the next day or two.

Hope yall are having a great Wednesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Three areas in the Atlantic to watch, watching Eastern Pacific

By: JohnnyParker, 11:45 AM GMT on September 03, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 92 with lows between 61 and 66. There is a slight chance of rain today, and a slight chance of rain on Saturday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 73 and it feels like 73. Todays high is 89 with a low of 65. Wednesdays high is 88.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-18th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, an elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the Eastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles and into the tropical Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are favorable, the broad nature of this disturbance and the proximity to dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere have been inhibiting development. Conditions could gradually become more conducive for development while the system moves West-Northwestward at around 10mph near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next several days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles over the next day or two. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave located over the Yucatan Peninsula is moving Westward at about 10mph. There is some potential for development when the wave moves into the Bay of Campeche in a day or so. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave with an associated area of low pressure is located near the West Coast of Africa, several hundred miles Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for development over the next few days while the disturbance moves West-Northwestward to Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Southwestern Coast of Mexico Southward for several hundred miles is associated with a tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance while it moves West-Northwestward at about 10mph, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days while it moves West-Northwestward around 10mph.

Hope yall are having a great Tuesday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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Kiko weakens, watching an area near Lesser Antilles

By: JohnnyParker, 1:41 PM GMT on September 02, 2013

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 74 and it feels like 74. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 93 with lows between 60 and 70. There is a 80% chance of scattered thunderstorms today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, and a slight chance of rain on Saturday. Few storms could be strong to severe today with main threats being for heavy rain, flash flooding, quarter size hail, and damaging winds up to 60mph. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 78 and it feels like 78. Todays high is 93 and a low of 74 with an 80% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Tuesdays high is 89 with a slight chance of rain.

Now, for your severe weather update for the Southeast Region. Could see severe weather potential around September 10th-17th.

Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, disorganized cloudiness and showers in association with an elongated area of low pressure extend from the Eastern Caribbean Sea across the Lesser Antilles and into the Tropical Atlantic. Although upper-level winds are favorable, the proximity to dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere is inhibiting development of this disturbance. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days while it moves Westward to West-Northwestward at 10 to 15mph over the Caribbean Sea, and near or over Hispaniola. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so. Also, in the Atlantic, a tropical wave located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea is moving West-Northwestward at about 10mph. This system is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche Tuesday through Thursday, where some development is possible later in the week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves West-Northwestward at 10mph. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Kiko has weakened and should dissipate later today. Winds are at 35mph with a pressure of 1005mbars. Movement is North-Northwest at 5mph. Is not a threat to land. Also, in the Eastern Pacific, a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the South-Central Coast of Mexico South-Southwestward for several hundred miles is associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the wave off of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico by midweek, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development of the low at that time. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days while it moves West-Northwestward around 10mph.

Hope yall are having a great Monday and I'll have another post tomorrow morning.

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About JohnnyParker

I am Johnny Parker and I am 20. I have studied the weather since I was 5. I have cerebral palsy and my goal is to become a meteorologist.