JohnnyParker's Blog

Major Tornado outbreak occurring today across the South

By: JohnnyParker, 12:17 PM GMT on April 27, 2011

I'll have the forecasted high and low temperatures in my next post later today. A major and very dangerous tornado outbreak will occur across the South today. The greatest threat for Tornadoes will be from Northeast MS, most of Alabama, Southern parts of Tennessee, and parts of Georgia. Dr. Greg Forbes is still giving a 9 out of 10 chance of a tornado for Northeast and central MS today. This is a 90% chance of seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius. A flash flood watch continues until the evening. Rainfall will be between 2 and 4 with areas having locally 5 inches. A wind advisory continues until midnight tonight. Winds will be between 20 and 30mph with gusts to 40mph. A PDS Tornado Watch could again be issued later today. Here are the threats: strong tornadoes, large hail (up to baseball size), damaging winds up to 80mph, heavy rain, and flash flooding. The timing of this will be from 9pm to 5pm with the worse occurring between 1 and 5pm. The Storm Prediction Center has put up a high risk area over Northeast MS, Central and Northern Alabama, and Southern Tennessee. So, in other words, be extremely weather cautious today and I'll have a new post later today, too. Be safe!

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Major and Dangerous Tornado Outbreak tonight into tomorrow across South

By: JohnnyParker, 12:29 AM GMT on April 27, 2011

Here are your forecasted highs and lows for the rest of the week and into next week. Your highs will range between 75 and 85 with lows between 50 and 61. A chance of rain next Monday, but no severe weather is anticipated. Now, for the severe weather part. The timing of this will be from 12am tonight to 8pm Wednesday. The worst of the storms will occur between 3am tonight and 5pm Wednesday. Threats will be large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding.
The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch in effect until Wednesday evening. Rainfall will be between 3 and 5 inches. A wind advisory is in effect until midnight Wednesday. Winds will be between 20 and 30mph with gusts to 40mph. The Storm Prediction has given out a large moderate risk for tomorrow. An upgrade to a high risk is still possible. A PDS Tornado Watch could be issued later tonight for parts of Northern MS. In fact, two PDS Tornado Watches are already in effect for Louisiana and back into Texas. The other one is in effect for portions of Western MS and Memphis.
Dr. Greg Forbes, the severe weather expert at The Weather Channel, has given North MS a 9 out of 10 chance of seeing a tornado on his Tor:Con Index. This is a 90% chance of seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius. So far, this is the highest Tor:Con value that I have seen him give for Northern MS. This will be a very dangerous situation. This Tor:Con value is for tomorrow.
Flooding continues along the Mississippi River and will continue to do so into next month. I hope everyone is having a great Tuesday and I'll have a new post tomorrow. Be extremely weather cautious tonight and tomorrow!

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Major Severe Weather Outbreak Begins

By: JohnnyParker, 12:09 AM GMT on April 26, 2011

Major severe weather and tornado outbreak has begun across the Midwest and South. This will be a 4-day event, which will be today through Thursday. By thursday, the threat will be for the East Coast. Before we go any further, here are your forecasted highs for the week and into next week. Your highs will range between 75 and 87 with lows between 49 and 67. Now, for the severe weather outbreak. Here are your threats: large hail, tornadoes (a few of which could be strong), damaging winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for the Northern most counties of Mississippi. This watch is in effect until 7pm Wednesday. Neither Tupelo nor Smithville, MS is included in this watch, yet. As for our rainfall, it will be in between 4 and 7 inches. This is not just for one day. The severe weather and flash flood threat will stay with us through Wednesday. The rain will not start to come in till 9pm tonight. As for our Tor:Con values (Tornado Condition Index), it will be 30 to 40% chance tonight for North MS. For Tuesday, it is 50 to 60% chance of a seeing a tornado in North MS. On Wednesday, Dr. Greg Forbes is giving a 40% chance of seeing a tornado in North MS. The Storm Prediction Center has already posted a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow into Wednesday. It is possible that they could upgrade it to high risk. On Wednesday, winds will be out of the south at 20 to 30mph with gusts up to 50mph. A wind advisory could become necessary later on. After this outbreak, sunny weather will be with us from Thursday to Saturday. A 30 to 40% chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be in the forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. As of right now, no severe weather is anticipated. I hope that everyone is having a good Monday and I'll be back with a new post in the morning or afternoon. Be safe and be very weather cautious this week. I also want to make mention that the Mississippi River is rising and it is now nearing its highest level since 1937. A PDS Tornado Watch has now been issue for Memphis and Western portions of Mississippi. This watch will expire at 12 tonight. A PDS stands for particularly dangerous situation. And finally, I will be turning 17 years old on Thursday.

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Major Severe Weather Outbreak occurring Monday through Thursday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:43 AM GMT on April 25, 2011

This severe weather season just does not want to take a break. More severe weather occurring Monday through Thursday. After this outbreak is over with, we probably will have seen over 100 reports of tornadoes. Before we get any further into the severe weather, here are your forecasted highs for this week. Your highs will range between 73 and 87 with lows between 49 and 68. Alright, now for the severe weather aspect. We will be dealing with two systems, both will produce significant severe weather. Both will not move very fast, so very heavy rainfall across the same areas is likely. A flash flood watch has been issued for Memphis and Northern counties of Mississippi. Smithville, Mississippi is not included in this watch, yet. I believe we will though by in the morning. North of Memphis, you will see between 5 and 8 inches of rainfall. South of Memphis, 2 to 5 inches. The flash flood watch could extend further South with time. The flash flood watch is in effect until Wednesday evening. Threats will be: large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has put out a moderate risk of severe weather for tomorrow for Arkansas, Texas, and parts of Louisiana. This could be updated to a high risk by in the morning. Another moderate risk could be put up for Tuesday and on into Wednesday. Dr. Greg Forbes has given a 7 out of 10 chance of seeing a tornado for Arkansas, Norheast Texas, and South Missouri tomorrow. This is a 70% chance of seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius. His Tor:Con values for Tuesday is between a 30 and 60% chance. He has put out a 50% chance of North MS seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius on Tuesday. The rain will not begin to come into our area of Northeast Mississippi until late Monday night. These numbers will probably be revised. A wind advisory may become necessary on Wednesday as winds will be out of the South at 20 to 30mph with gusts to near 50mph. I'll have another post tomorrow on the severe threat. I hope everyone is having a great Easter and be safe!

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Windy today, sunny tomorrow, and severe weather outbreak next week

By: JohnnyParker, 7:40 PM GMT on April 23, 2011

It is very warm and windy today. The current temperature is 81 with winds out of the SSW at 16mph with gusts to 25mph. Today's high is 86 here in Smithville, MS. Your highs will continue to range between 74 and 87 with lows between 50 and 67. Severe weather returns Monday through Wednesday. It will not effect Northeast Mississippi until Monday night. Tuesday's and Wednesday's chance of precipitation is only a 40% of scattered thunderstorms. I expect that this will increase to a 70 to 80% chance. The cold front that will be producing the severe weather will move to the east very slowly. Multiple rounds of severe weather are possible Monday through Wednesday. Large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding will all be possible. A flash flood watch could be issued in later forecasts. Rainfall will probably be between 1 to 3 inches. I expect the Storm Prediction Center will have to issue a Moderate to High risk at some point in time. This could be a very dangerous, widespread, massive, and major outbreak of severe weather. Not to mention, this could produce over 100 tornadoes when this is over with. There will be two strong systems that will be coming through to help set off this outbreak. I still do not know the timing of this yet. According to the National Weather Service, the worse day for severe weather that will occur over the South will probably be Wednesday. Wednesday is when we will have the greatest threat for long tracked and violent tornadoes. After that, your weather turns back to sunny and warm. Our next threat of severe weather will come next weekend. Hope everyone is having a great Saturday and have a wonderful Easter! I'll have more on the severe weather threat tomorrow.

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Warm and sunny weekend, but more rain and severe weather next week

By: JohnnyParker, 3:08 AM GMT on April 23, 2011

It was a warm and sunny day across the South. It was very humid, too. The temperature got up to near 90 today. Highs will continue to range between 77 and 87 with lows between 54 and 66. Rain will return Monday through Wednesday. This will include severe weather, too. This severe weather outbreak looks to be massive, major, and widespread going into next week. The threats will be as of the following: large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding. I do not know the timing or when this will come into our area of Northeast Mississippi. This could also be a very dangerous outbreak. Rainfall will probably be between 1 and 3 inches. I would not be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center put out a Moderate or High risk of severe weather for parts of the South by Sunday or Monday. I believe that this outbreak could possibly surpass the one that we saw on the weekend of the 15th through the 17th. A flash flood watch could be issue by Sunday for parts of the South. After this outbreak, it will be calm for a while. In fact, the pattern will change a little. This pattern change will mean that we will not see outbreaks of severe weather every 3 to 5 days. It will be spread out a little. Finally, it seems that both the Midwest and South will see a well-earned break from the severe weather for a little bit. As for our disturbance in the Atlantic, it is not doing too well. It is under lots of wind shear and I do not think it will become anything. We will still have to watch it though. This disturbance will provide beneficial rains to Florida later on next week. I'll have another post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast and more on next weeks' threat. I hope everyone is having a good Friday and hope yall have a good weekend.

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Cloudy and windy tomorrow, and then more severe weather next week

By: JohnnyParker, 1:28 AM GMT on April 22, 2011

Tomorrow's forecast calls for it to be cloudy and windy. A wind advisory may be needed for tomorrow. Winds will be out of the south at 19mph with gusts to near 35mph. Your highs will range between 78 and 87 with lows between 55 and 66. The forecast for Easter Sunday looks great and very warm. Every week, we seem to get hit by more severe weather. Well, it looks like another round of severe weather will be with us next week and this looks to be a major outbreak. So far this month, we have seen over 4500 reports of severe weather and over 200 tornadoes. This looks to be the highest number of tornadoes in history for the month of April. All kinds of severe weather are possible including the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding. This will begin on Monday and last into Wednesday, although I do not know the timing of this yet. As for our tropical disturbance, we won't have to worry about it anymore. I'll have more on the severe weather threat tomorrow. I hope that everyone had a great Thursday!

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Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, and a Tropical Disturbance in the Atlantic

By: JohnnyParker, 11:24 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

We have a wide variety of weather on our hands. Before we get to that, your highs will continue to range between 80 and 88 with lows ranging between 54 and 66. First, heavy rain and severe weather is affecting the South right now as we speak. Main threats will be heavy rain, flash flooding, large hail, and high winds. This will last into tomorrow, too. A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 6:15pm for Northern Chickasaw County, Southern Itawamba County, Southern Lee County, Northern Monroe County, and Southeastern Pontotoc County. These counties are in Northeast Mississippi. A flash flood watch in effect until Thursday morning for East Arkansas and Northern Mississippi. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8pm for Calhoun County, Chickasaw County, Itawamba County, Lee County, Monroe County, and Pontotoc County. Already, we have had over one inch of rainfall from last night. The squall line that came through last night produced very high wind and caused a lot of damage. It knocked town power poles, roofs came off of buildings, and several trees were blown down. I estimate that these winds were probably in the range of 65 to near 80mph. Many homes and businesses were without power for several hours across North Mississippi. I have not heard of any deaths or injuries from this storm, yet. Many more significant to major severe weather and tornado outbreaks will be happening over the next two weeks. In fact, one of these outbreaks could occur by next Tuesday. The rain and storms that will got today is associated with a stalled out front. This is what will give us more rain tomorrow. Typically, when you have big and major severe weather outbreaks, you tend to get a very active hurricane season. Well, we may be getting off to an early start for the 2011 season. Yes, thats right. A tropical disturbance is in the Atlantic. It is located to the north of Puerto Rico. As of now, no development is anticipated. Although, there is a 10% chance of it becoming a subtropical storm. It is under high wind shear now, but it is located over warm waters that are favorable for development. I'll have another post tomorrow and I hope that everyone has had a good Wednesday. Keep safe!

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Severe weather late tonight and Wednesday, warm weather continues

By: JohnnyParker, 12:59 AM GMT on April 20, 2011

Your highs will continue to range between 80 and 88 with lows between 54 and 68. You will see rain late tonight and Wednesday. More rain on Thursday. Main severe weather threats will be large hail and winds tonight and Wednesday. Secondary threat is isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible, too. The timing of this will be 12am tonight to 4pm Thursday. The reason that we are going to have so much rain is because of a cold front that will come through the area and stall out over North and Central Mississippi. Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather will be possible during this period. Next possible outbreak of severe weather will be next Tuesday or Wednesday. This April has been very active in terms of severe weather. The weather pattern is not going to change that much. That means that we could be have multiple rounds of severe weather into the month of May and possibly even into June. I hope that everyone is having a great Tuesday and I'll be back with a new post on any changes to the forecast tomorrow.

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Temperatures continue to be warm, a severe weather outbreak wednesday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:18 AM GMT on April 19, 2011

It was a very warm day across much of the South. Temperatures got up to near 83 here in Smithville,MS. Your highs will continue to range between 81 and 89 with lows between 55 and 68. Overall, it will continue to feel like summertime instead of springtime. It will be windy tomorrow will winds out of the South at 15 to 25mph with gusts between 35 and 45mph. A severe weather outbreak will be possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Main threats are: large hail, wind, heavy rain, and flash flooding. Secondary threat is isolated tornadoes. The worse of the severe weather and tornadoes will be in the midwest states. The Storm Prediction Center has already put out a moderate risk of severe weather. I expect that they will put out a high risk by in the morning. For those of you who are tired and weary of all the severe outbreaks that we have seen, I have some bad news. The weather pattern that we are in now does not look to change that much as we go into next month. That means that the Midwest, Great Plains, and the South will be in for more severe weather outbreaks in May and possibly on into June. So far, this month has shown severe weather in full force. In fact, another severe weather outbreak is possible this weekend and into next week. Hope everyone is having a great Monday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast.

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Warm weather all this week, more severe weather for the South

By: JohnnyParker, 11:53 PM GMT on April 17, 2011

It has been a nice day across the South. The current temperatures in Smithville,MS is 70 and tonight's low is 49. As we go into this week, your highs will range between 77 and 88 with lows between 54 and 67. Next rain chance will be Tuesday night through Thursday. The rain on Tuesday night will be from a cold front that will pass through the area and then stall out. This will cause little disturbances to form and ride along the front. This will cause strong to severe storms and heavy rain on Wednesday. I do not expect a big and major outbreak like we saw this past Friday. I believe your main threats going into Tuesday night and Wednesday will be large hail and high winds. I cannot rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado. Heavy rain and flash flooding will also be possible. High winds will also be possible Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will probably be between 20 and 30mph with wind gusts between 40 and 45mph. This past major tornado outbreak will probably go in the record books for producing a preliminary number of 241 tornadoes within a 3-day period. If confirmed, this will be the biggest tornado outbreak in history, surpassing the super outbreak of 1974. That outbreak produced 148 tornadoes. I hope everyone is having a great Sunday and pray for the people in North/South Carolina and Alabama as they recover from this past outbreak. I'll have another post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast.

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A bit chilly today, but warm weather returns, and rain returns Wednesday

By: JohnnyParker, 8:40 PM GMT on April 16, 2011

It is quiet chilly today across the South. The current temperature here in Smithville,MS is 55 and tonights low is 40. It will be a windy day also. Winds will be out of the west at 19mph. Your highs will continue to range between 77 and 87 with lows between 50 and 67. No more rain until Wednesday and Thursday. There could be couple of strong storms on Wednesday, but nothing major. Threats will be small hail and winds up to 50mph on Wednesday. On Thursday, it is possible that a more sustantial outbreak could happen across the South. No weather computer models have picked up on that yet, but it will be possible. Just this past Thursday and into today, the midwest and south has had near or over 100 reports of tornadoes, hail, and wind. The National Weather Service will be sending teams out today across the South to survey the damage. These reports are just preliminary as of now. So far this month, we have seen severe weather outbreaks nearly every week. This past outbreak is our biggest outbreak that we have seen so far in 2011 for the South. I am ready for a break from all this. Well, I hope everyone is having a great Saturday and I'll have a new post tomorrow on any changes in the forecast.

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Extremely Dangerous Outbreak in progress across the South

By: JohnnyParker, 12:28 PM GMT on April 15, 2011

Your highs will continue to range between 70 and 88 with lows between 42 and 66. No rain until next week. I'll have more on this later. A line of thunderstorms is in progress this morning. A tornado watch is in effect until 10am this morning, too. Dr. Greg Forbes is still giving East MS a 7 out of 10 chance of seeing a tornado. Threats today will be as of the following: Tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, large hail up to baseball size, winds up to 80mph, heavy rain between 1 and 3 inches, and flash flooding. A wind advisory is in effect until 7pm tonight. Winds will be between 20 and 30mph with gusts between 40 and 45. This excludes the thunderstorms. More storms are likely to form in the afternoon and early evening. Timing will be between 12pm and 5pm. This will be the worse of it. I'll have another post later today, if needed. If not, I'll have one tomorrow. Keep safe!

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Very significant and major severe weather outbreak across the South Friday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:52 AM GMT on April 14, 2011

It was a nice and warm day again across much of the South. This will continue into tomorrow, but this will change drastically as we head into Friday. Before we get to that, your high temperatures will range between 69 and 86 with lows between 44 and 64. Okay, now for Friday. A very significant to major severe weather outbreak is likely across the South. Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and flash flooding will all be possible. The timing of this, as of right now, is from 12pm to 4 pm Friday. This is when the worse of it will be. The timing is likely to change, though. Dr. Greg Forbes has already put a 7 out of 10 chance of a tornado within a 50 mile radius for North Mississippi. This is 70% chance of having a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center is likely to put out a Moderate Risk by tomorrow evening or Friday morning for parts of the South. If the moisture return is stronger from out of the Gulf of Mexico, we will see a big tornado outbreak. As of right now, the greatest threat is wind. I'll have more on this tomorrow and any changes to the forecast. I hope that everyone is having a great Wednesday!

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Warm weather continues, significant severe weather outbreak Friday

By: JohnnyParker, 3:18 AM GMT on April 13, 2011

It was nice warm day across the South with highs ranging anywhere between 72 and near 90. Most of the 90s were found in deep south Texas and into South Florida. Going into Wednesday and next week, your high temperatures will range between 69 and 84 with lows between 45 and 62. No frost or freezes are in the near future. Now, for the very significant to major severe outbreak potential for Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. This includes all of the following: Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding. Rainfall amounts, as of right now, could be in the half inch to 1 inch range. I would not be surprised if some places got higher amounts. This could also be a widespread outbreak. At this time, I do not know the timing or the evolution of the storms. The Storm Prediction Center already has there eye on the situation. I hope that everyone had a good Tuesday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow on new information on the upcoming severe weather outbreak.

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Warm weather Tuesday through Thursday, severe weather again on Friday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:06 AM GMT on April 12, 2011

Well, our severe weather did not quite work out as I had thought it would. It was warm and moist all day, but the storms did not form rapidly and our squall line was not that strong as I had feared it would. In fact, we barely got any rain out of it here in Smithvile, MS. Although, we did get a good bit of wind out of the storms that moved through. O well, I guess that is a good thing. Our tornado watch has been discontinued and the storms are moving into Alabama. Now, let us talk about temperatures. Your highs will range between 65 and 82 with lows between 39 and 60. Next rain chance will be Thursday night into Friday. There is potential for another severe weather outbreak on Friday. I'll have more on that later on. I hope that everyone had a good Monday and I'll be back with new post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast.

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Severe Weather tomorrow, then warms back up, and storms return Friday

By: JohnnyParker, 1:26 AM GMT on April 11, 2011

First off, your highs this week and into next weekend will be ranging between 67 and 80 with lows between 44 and 58. Now, let us discuss the severe weather threat tomorrow. You will see some isolated thunderstorms in the morning, but the worse of it will come in at 12pm to 5pm. The timing of this will be from 9am to 11pm tomorrow. Main threats will be wind and large hail. Winds could be up to 60mph with some strong storms. I still cannot rule out the threat of a isolated tornado. According to Dr. Greg Forbes' Tor:Con values, he is giving North Mississippi a 2 to 3 chance of seeing a tornado. That is 20 to 30% chance of a seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius. So in other words, a very low chance of seeing a tornado. Still, though, the National Weather Service could issue a tornado watch for parts of the South tomorrow. Rainfall will probably be between half and 3 quarters of an inch. I do not expect 1 inch of rain in my town of Smithville, MS. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall. Next potential severe weather threat will be on Thursday night into Friday. I'll have more on that in later forecasts. There will be squall line that will move through between 12 and 5 tomorrow. I hope that everyone had a great Sunday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast. Keep safe tomorrow!

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Very warm today and severe weather returns Sunday night into Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 5:32 PM GMT on April 09, 2011

It will be very warm and humid across the South today. The current temperature is 76 in Smithville,MS. The forecasted high is 90. Your forecasted highs and lows for the rest of this weekend and into next week will range between 74 and 88 with lows between 46 and 65. Rain will return Sunday night into Monday. Next rain chance after that will be Friday through next Monday. It is possible that there could be severe weather on Friday, but I'll have more on that in later forecasts. As for your severe weather threat, the worse of it will be in Kansas and across the Midwest. For Northern Mississippi and the rest of the South, the main threat will be wind and the secondary threat will be large hail. Although, I cannot rule out the threat of a isolated tornado. This will be from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Rainfall will be between a quarter to half an inch. I am not expecting a major outbreak with this across the South, although there will be a squall line that will move through during this time. I hope that everyone is having a great Saturday! I'll be back tomorrow to discuss any new information on the severe threat and any changes in the forecast.

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Warm weekend, severe weather Sunday night into Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 9:21 PM GMT on April 08, 2011

It is very warm today across most of the South. The current temperature is 83 and it is humid. This warm weather will last this weekend and into most of next week. Your high temperatures will range between 75 and 91 with lows between 50 and 66. Rain chances will be Sunday night into Monday. The chance on Monday is a 60%. Other rain chances will be Next Thursday through Saturday. Severe weather will be a possibility with this also. A major and extremely dangerous severe weather outbreak will occur Sunday into Monday. The worse of the severe weather will be mainly in the Midwest. This is where you could have large hail, strong and violent tornadoes, and winds at 60mph or higher. As for Northern Mississippi, I do not expect much severe weather with this. We could have some storms that may become severe, but it does not look as bad as I first feared it might. Main threat will be wind. Secondary threats will be large hail and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain and flash flooding is also possible. As of right now, rainfall will be in the range of .10 to .25 inches. I'll have more information on the severe weather threat tomorrow and any changes to the forecast. Hope everyone is having a great Friday!

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Widespread and major severe weather outbreak likely Sunday into Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 1:40 AM GMT on April 08, 2011

Yep, that's right. Another major severe weather outbreak. Just what we needed, right. No, it is not what we need. Although, we do need the rain, but not all the severe weather. Before I go into any details about the severe weather, here is your forecasted highs and lows for this weekend into next week. Highs between 75 and 90 with lows between 54 and 64. Next rain chance, of course, will be on Sunday evening into Monday morning. The next rain chance after that will come in next Thursday through next Saturday with precipitation chances between 30% and 60%. Yes, there will be the potential for severe weather. It is too early to tell if we will see any severe weather, but it will be possible. Since April is the prime month for severe weather and tornadoes across the South, almost all of the cold fronts that come through this month will have the potential to produce severe weather. As of now, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. I cannot rule out the possibility of a isolated tornado. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible, too. This is for Sunday evening into Monday. The squall line will not move into our area of Northeast Mississippi until around midnight Sunday. I do not believe that the Storm Prediction Center will issue a Moderate Risk area for parts of Mississippi or the South. I do not know how much rain we will get, but maybe it will be less than 1 inch. It depends on how fast the cold front moves. I hope that everyone is having a great Thursday and I'll be back with more details tomorrow on the severe weather threat and any changes in the forecast.

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Warm weather this weekend, significant severe weather possible Sunday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:29 AM GMT on April 07, 2011

Warm weather ahead this weekend. Your highs will range between 76 and 88 with lows between 47 and 64. Next rain chance will be Friday morning, but less than half an inch is expected. As we go into Sunday and Monday, we have the potential for another large, dangerous, and major severe weather outbreak. As of now, it looks like the squall line will not affect Northeast Mississippi until midnight Sunday night. Also, the threats look to be heavy rain, flash flooding, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. According to Accuweather, this could be another large outbreak. I will not know the full details until Friday or Saturday. CSU has came out with their second forecast for the upcoming 2011 hurricane season. You can find the full story at either Accuweather.com, Weather.com, Weatherbug.com, and WTVA.com. I have another post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast and maybe some more information on the severe weather outbreak Sunday into Monday. I hope everyone is having a great Wednesday!

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Warm weather ahead, more severe weather possible Sunday or Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 12:49 AM GMT on April 06, 2011

After a stormy start to the week, warm weather and sunshine will dominate the South the rest of the week and into the weekend. In total, there were over 1,000 reports of severe weather yesterday. This could be a record. The main reports came from wind damage. This morning, I went out to check my rain gauge and we had 2.93 inches just from yesterday afternoon through the evening. Okay, your highs will continue to range between 74 and 89 with lows between 38 and 66. There is a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms on Friday, but rainfall will be less than half an inch. Next Monday, you have a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. At this time, I do not expect much rain with this either. We do have the possibility of another large, dangerous, and major severe weather outbreak. This will occur either on Sunday or Monday. At this time, Sunday's forecast is sunshine and only calls for a 20% chance of rainfall. I believe as we go onward into the month of April, we will continue to see multiple rounds of severe weather outbreaks. I'll have more on this potential severe weather on either Thursday or Friday. I may have a some details on it tomorrow, but the greater details won't come in unitl Thursday and Friday. Hope everyone is having a great Tuesday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow on any changes in the forecast.

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Still raining, but nice and warm weather return by Wednesday!

By: JohnnyParker, 10:44 PM GMT on April 04, 2011

The main squall line has moved through earlier today. It is still raining heavy here in Smithville, MS and parts of Northeast Mississippi. Severe weather has faded rapidly during the last few hours. Heavy rain, thunder, and lightning will continue till about 8 or 9pm tonight. Now, for your temperatures. Highs will continue to range between 64 and 88 with lows between 37 and 64. You will have a very nice weekend in store with sunshine and highs between 84 and 88, although there is a 40% chance of showers on Friday. There will be nothing major on Friday and rainfall will be less than half an inch. Next possible severe weather outbreak might be next Monday, again. The CSU and TSR will be coming out with their next hurricane forecasts tomorrow and Wednesday for the upcoming 2011 season. I hope everyone is having a safe and good Monday. I'll have a new post tomorrow on how many inches of rain we got today and any changes in the forecast.

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Major Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak likely Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 8:21 PM GMT on April 03, 2011

Major severe weather and tornado outbreak tomorrow across Northern Mississippi and most of the South. Before we get into discussing the outbreak tomorrow, here is the forecasted highs and lows for Monday through next Tuesday. Highs will be between 64 and 88 with lows between 40 and 61. There will be rain next Friday and next Monday. No severe weather is expected any of these two days. Okay, now for the major severe weather outbreak. The timing of the storms will be between 10am and 8pm Monday night. The squall line will move through between 3pm in the afternoon and 8pm at night. Large hail, up to golf ball size, winds, up to 70mph or more, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, heavy rains, and flash flooding. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain is expected. I do not think that the National Weather Service will issue a Flash Flood Watch. The Storm Prediction Center could issue either a Moderate or High Risk for parts of the South by in the morning. The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, has already given North Mississippi a 7 out of 10 chance of seeing a tornado within a 50 mile radius. To put this in perspective, there is a 70% chance of seeing a tornado in North Mississippi. This could be a dangerous, widespread tornado outbreak. Also, this is the largest, widespread, and dangerous outbreak so far in the 2011 severe weather season. I would not be surprised if the National Weather Service put out a Tornado Watch or a PDS Tornado Watch before 12 or 3 tomorrow. A PDS stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation. So, be extremely weather cautious tomorrow. I hope everyone is having a wonderful Sunday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow on any changes in the forecast. Stay safe tomorrow.

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Warm today and Sunday, Major severe weather outbreak likely Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 9:26 PM GMT on April 02, 2011

It is a very nice day across Northern Mississippi and the rest of the South. The current temperature is 50 with temperatures getting up to near 75. Tomorrow to next Monday, your highs will range between 63 and 84 with lows between 40 and 63. Rain chances will be Monday and then next Friday through Monday. We could be dealing with yet another severe weather outbreak next weekend, but no computer models are showing that yet. It is just something we will have to watch out for. Okay, now for the major severe weather and tornado outbreak on Monday. It seems now that North Mississippi will see the best chance of seeing severe storms on Monday. There will be a very intense squall line forming at noon and then coming in between 3 and 6pm to North Mississippi and across the state. The threats will be: large hail, possibly up to golf ball size, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, winds up to 60mph or more, very heavy rainfall, and flash flooding. I would not be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk area for some parts of the South for Monday. A Flash Flood Watch could be issued later today or tomorrow. I hope that everyone is having a great Saturday and I'll have a new post tomorrow on the severe weather for Monday and any changes to the forecast. The month of April is the main time to see major tornado and severe weather outbreaks across the South, so keep that in mind. Also, this could be the first of many outbreaks. So this is the time to prepare for outbreaks like these. Have a great day! A wind advisory is now in effect until 8 or 9pm tomorrow night. Winds will be between 20 and 30 with gusts between 35 and 45. I now have information on the timing of when the storms will come in the our area. Storms will begin to come in at 1pm Monday and continue on. The worse of the severe weather and our squall line will start push into the area by 3pm through 5pm Monday. This timing is liable to change by tomorrow, but this is what they now have.

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Warm weekend, but very significant to major severe weather outbreak Monday

By: JohnnyParker, 3:42 AM GMT on April 02, 2011

It was a rather chilly day again across Northern Mississippi. Temperatures got to near 70, but it did not feel like because the sun was not out much. Later on, the sun did come out and it warm up somewhat. It will definitely be warm tomorrow with temperatures getting up to near 80. From tomorrow to next Sunday, your highs will range between 63 and 84 with lows between 44 and 65. We could see some more severe weather possible next weekend, but it is too early to tell. I'll let yall know if we do end up having one, though. Now, let us discuss the widespread and major tornado outbreak that will be occurring across the South on Monday. As far as I know, this is likely to be the biggest tornado outbreak that we have seen in the 2011 severe weather season, so far. The threats will be: very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, tornadoes, large hail, and winds up to 60 mph or higher. I am not sure on the timing of the storms yet, but now I know that it will not be affecting North Mississippi at nighttime. That will be big help because at night we will not be able to see the storms or a tornado. During the daytime, you will be able to see the storm and a tornado. I am also not sure on the chances of seeing a tornado. I hope to have more information tomorrow on the timing and the tornado risk. A Flash Flood Watch could be issued at some point tomorrow. Rainfall on Monday could be between 2-4 inches or more. I hope that everyone had a good Friday and keep praying for the people over in Japan. I will have a new post tomorrow on any changes to the forecast and more on Monday's outbreak of severe storms.

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Warm this weekend, threat of severe weather on Sunday night into Tuesday

By: JohnnyParker, 1:58 AM GMT on April 01, 2011

It was another chilly day across the South, but the sun was out. I have good news for those who are sick and tired of it being in the fifties to low sixties. This weekend, you will see high temperatures between 70 and 84 with plenty of sunshine. That said, your highs will range between 68 and 85 with lows between 41 and 65. This temperature forecast goes through next Saturday. Tonight, rain will be coming through parts of Northern Mississippi. No severe weather is expected and rain will be less than half an inch. On Friday night, the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Again, no severe weather is anticipated. On Sunday night through Tuesday morning, a very significant to major severe weather outbreak is possible. Also, there is the potential that this storm system could produce a major tornado outbreak across the South. Here are the threats: large hail, winds, tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are all possible. The heavy rainfall and flash flooding are probably likely because the cold front and low pressure system will be moving to the east very slowly.I also expect that the National Weather Service will issue a Flash Flood Watch or a Flood Warning as early as Saturday. I will have a new update tomorrow on any changes to the forecast and more on the potential severe weather outbreak. I hope everyone had a good Thursday! Continue to pray for the country of Japan.

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About JohnnyParker

I am Johnny Parker and I am 20. I have studied the weather since I was 5. I have cerebral palsy and my goal is to become a meteorologist.

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