I am Johnny Parker and I am 21. I have studied the weather since I was 5. I have cerebral palsy and my goal is to become a meteorologist.
By: JohnnyParker, 11:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2011
Significant severe weather outbreak is possible tomorrow, as well as heavy rainfall between one and three inches. This will be our first severe weather event in 2011. The forecast for tomorrow calls for a one hundred percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with winds out of the southeast at 15-25mph with wind gusts to near 35 or 40. Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Tornado Watches could be issued between 12pm and 3pm tomorrow. The National Weather Service could also issue a Flash Flood Watch for some parts of the South. Tuesday's high temperature will be between 62 and 65, so the threat for severe weather is there. The winds tomorrow will not be associated with the thunderstorms, so that could help the thunderstorms winds to increase when they come through to help bring down power lines and tree limbs. The threat for tornadoes will be low, about a 30%. That does not mean that you should let your guard down. I will have a new post tomorrow that will be on the forecast for wednesday and the rest of the week and next week. Hope everyone had a good monday and remember to be extremely weather cautious tomorrow.
By: JohnnyParker, 11:07 PM GMT on January 30, 2011
Severe Weather and Flash Flooding are still in the forecast for Tuesday. It still looks like that the main threat will be heavy rain and flash flooding, but I still cannot rule out a severe storm or two. The low pressure that will be producing all of this is still in California and the West. Computer Models still do not have a clear picture of where this thing will head. If it heads north, our severe weather potential increases. If it heads further south, the threat of severe weather decreases. One fact is that either way the low pressure system tracks the threat for flash flooding and heavy rainfall is still there. Also on Tuesday, the winds will be out of the Southeast at 20mph and the chance of precipitation is 80%. After the cold front moves through on Tuesday night, it will get a whole lot colder. Wednesday through next Tuesday's high temperature will range between 41 and 57 with lows between 27 and 34. Both this monday and tuesday's high temperature will be sixty one with monday's low at 53 and tuesday's low at 31. I hope everyone had a great sunday and I'll have a new post tomorrow in which I will have a better understanding of what will happen on Tuesday.
By: JohnnyParker, 10:56 PM GMT on January 29, 2011
There is the potential for a potent severe weather outbreak and flash flood threat for the South on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The chance of rain for tuesday is a seventy percent chance. Now, it looks like that the main threat will be flash flooding, but I cannot rule out the severe weather outbreak. I say that by Wednesday morning that parts of the south could have between 2-5 inches depending on where the heaviest rain will be located. Let me say that this is not a final forecast. All this could change by tomorrow, as it all depends on the track of this low pressure system that is still off the west coast. The temperature on Tuesday will be between sixty one and sixty five, so the threat of severe weather is there. It also depends on the amount of wind shear that the storms have to work with. After this low pressure moves through, it will get cold again, but not as cold. Next Wednesday through Monday, the temperatures will range between forty six and fifty five. Also on Wednesday, the winds will be out of the west-northwest at 22mph. I hope everyone has had a wonderful saturday, which has been very warm. I'll have a new post tomorrow concerning the potential severe weather outbreak on tuesday, which hopefully I will have new information.
By: JohnnyParker, 11:34 PM GMT on January 28, 2011
There are several computer models and forecasts that are saying winter weather potential for the South and Midwest. Now saying that, there has been no official forecast that I have seen that says anything about it, except the National Weather Service. They say that winter weather is possible. All of the others say that rain is possible. The National Weather Service down in Jackson, MS said that flash flooding and severe weather is possible. Now what the South gets will depend on how much cold air is in place with this cold, arctic high pressure that is moving out of Canada. It also depends on the path of our next system that could bring a big variety of weather to the Midwest and South. The Weather Channel has their forecast for Tuesday that says a forty percent chance of showers. This possible wintry mix or severe weather will come in on Tuesday through Wednesday of next week. I hope that all we get is rain, but I cannot rule out any severe weather until we know the path of our low pressure system associated with the cold front. I hope that everyone had a good Friday and I'll be back with a post tomorrow which I will discuss any changes in next weeks forecast.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:08 AM GMT on January 28, 2011
Next week's forecast looks to be cold and rainy. Sunday through Tuesday looks to have rain, but monday's chance is only a twenty percent, but there could be a slight drizzle. The rest of the week looks to be sunny, but cold. Highs will be between 38 and 59 and that is monday through saturday of next week. Now, I want to make mention that yet again the South could be dealing with yet another round of wintry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. As far as I know, the National Weather Service says that some accumulation is possible as a arctic high pressure system comes down out of Canada. Now I say no accumulation, but that could change, too. It will depend on how much cold air is in place and how much moisture the storm has to work with. Hopefully, we will see no accumulation. I hope everyone had a good Thursday. My post tomorrow will be on this potential winter weather for the South, in which I hope to have more information on it tomorrow morning.
By: JohnnyParker, 2:08 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
There has been lots of discussion about the "ark storm" for California. I have read an article about it from the USGS and it is a very interesting theory. Dr. Greg Forbes, who is the severe weather expert at The Weather Channel, posted his own blog about it and what he thinks would happen. You can go to their website and read about it. He says that it is possible that it could happen, but the question is when will it happen. The article poses some interesting questions.
Okay, as for this weekend, the forecast calls for a slight warm up. Highs friday through monday will be between 56 and 59. Hope everyone had a good wednesday. I'll be back with a new post tomorrow to talk about next week's weather.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:19 AM GMT on January 26, 2011
No snow accumulation tonight, but if it does accumulate it will be mainly on grassy surfaces. I don't see how it will manage to accumulate because of the rain that we got today. Hopefully, it will not. Okay as the forecast stands now, the temperatures will still be below average, but a slight warming trend is in store for the South this weekend. Thursday through sundays high temperatures will range between 52-62. Next week's highs will be in the low fifties to high forties. Our next chance of rain will be next Tuesday, but as of now the chance of precipitation is only at a forty percent. This winter has been full of surprises for the South. Hopefully, next month will not be as cold and bad. Hope everyone had a good tuesday and I'll be back with a new post tomorrow which I will discuss the "ark storm" that these scientists have came up with that could hit California with nonstop rains for forty days and forty nights.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:50 AM GMT on January 25, 2011
Winter weather is possible in the South once again. Tomorrow evening is when the changeover from rain to snow is suppose to occur. That depends on if the cold air gets in quicker than expected. If the cold air takes a while to come in, we will just get a slight dusting of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces. The second and worse case scenario would be if the cold air comes in much quicker than anticipated, which would cause us to have snow accumulation possibly between 1-3 inches. That is what the National Weather Service is saying right now. Let me point out that 4-5 inches will not be out of the question, if it does so. I don't see how, though, that snow will accumulate if it rains. The ground will be wet that it won't stick. The National Weather Service says that if they say 4-5 inches will occur, then they would issue either a winter storm watch or warning. All I am going to say is stay tuned to the forecasts and I'll have another update tomorrow on what I think it will do and how much will accumulate if any. Hope everyone had a good monday.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:06 AM GMT on January 24, 2011
We will see rain come into the South on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a slight chance of rain for Northern Mississippi tonight. Some of this rain will be very beneficial as parts of the South are in a minor to severe drought. We may pick up between half an inch to near one inch. Other places in the South may pick up between one and three inches. As for the cold temperatures, they will still be in control over much of the South. High temperatures will be between forty-three and fifty-five degrees this week, with lows between twenty-six and forty. After this cold front moves through, another blast of cold air will come in. On tuesday night, some parts of the South may have a slight chance for a wintry mix, but no accumulations will be possible unless you are farther north like in Gatlinburg, Tenn. or Memphis. I hope everyone has a good start to the week and I'll have a new post tomorrow which I will talk about how long the drought may last for the South and what it could mean.
By: JohnnyParker, 5:34 PM GMT on January 22, 2011
I have been listening to Long-range weather expert Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com on the Earth's temperature decreasing and what it could mean for winters of the future. I concur with him that it is on the decrease and there is lots of evidence that it is. One thing that has caught my attention is the winters of 2012-2016. According to Bastardi, he says that those winters will be some of the coldest and most brutal winters that we have ever seen. Another thing that is strange that has occured in the La Nina pattern this year, is the below average temperatures in the South. Usually, during a La Nina, the south is mild and warm. According to Bastardi, he states that this is not global warming, but the cycle that the Earth is going through. I also concur with him on this. I agree with him also on the forecast for winters of 2012-2016 because there are lots of things in the cycle that are going on now that could mean very frigid winters through that time period.
Now as for me, all I can say is that I think that weather from now on into the future will keep getting more unusual and weird. If you want to find out more on Bastardi and what else he has to say, just go to Accuweather. com and go to expert blogs or winter expert videos and you will see his video on La Nina and more cold. The video is very interesting. I hope everyone has a good saturday and sunday. I'll have a new post tomorrow which will discuss next week's weather and what the temperatures will do.
By: JohnnyParker, 12:34 AM GMT on January 22, 2011
Okay, the forecast for the rest of the winter looks like more snowstorms from Kansas to New York and very cold there too. The south will still have below normal temperatures with more possible winter weather, southwest dry and warm, and montana plus the northwest will still have snow and rain. I suspect that the south will still have some winter weather going into next month. Hopefully, it will not be as bad as this month. As for the severe weather threat going in the month of March, I believe that the south will have a high threat of tornadoes, large hail, and wind. I say that because usually during a La Nina year the south tends to have more severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Which some of the outbreaks could be major ones. It depends, though, on how long this cold weather lasts in the south. Northern Mississippi has a chance for scattered snow flurries tonight and a chance for a mix on monday. No accumulations expected tonight or monday. I hope everyone has a wonderful and safe weekend. I'll be back with a post tomorrow on the Global Temperatures decreasing and what that could mean for the winters of 2012-2016.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:03 AM GMT on January 21, 2011
As I said in my blog yesterday, no accumulation for the south tonight. The accumulation will be north of us, like in Memphis and on North. Now as for the forecast, it will turn cold friday and this weekend as another cold blast comes in behind the cold front that is bringing the wintry mix to the south tonight. After that, everything looks sunny and still the temperatures will be below normal except for monday. Monday is when we could have yet another winter mix. I have yet to know how much accumulation and what type of precipitation we will have, but I will know soon. Hopefully, we will not have any snow, ice, or sleet accumulation with this next one. I believe that it will be only in the form of rain for monday. I hope everyone has a good friday and a good weekend. I'll be back tomorrow with a new post to discuss the rest of the winter and our severe weather outlook for spring.
By: JohnnyParker, 12:47 AM GMT on January 20, 2011
The answer is no. The reason that I say that is because it will rain before the snow even comes in. So in that case the ground will be wet and it will not stick, unless the ground freezes before it comes in. We will still see some flakes drop, but no accumulation. Speaking of accumulation, it will fall and stick once you get up into Memphis and on up North. In my opinion, the South has had its fairshare of snowfall this season. Plus, my school is having to make up days for the snow we had last week. So we do not need any more snow. I'm sorry that the forecast is not what yall wanted, but I also know that some people are sick and tired of the snow and winter storms. The rain will be less than half an inch. After this moves through, another blast of cold air will move in. I'll have another post tomorrow.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:39 AM GMT on January 19, 2011
It seems the south cannot get any breaks in the cold and winter weather. This thursday night and friday morning we could have a mix of snow and rain. As of now, it looks like all we will see is less than half an inch of snow. No ice or sleet accumulation is expected. This year's La Nina has been quite strong and unusual in many different ways. A typical La Nina usually brings warm and above average temperatures and less rain to the South. So far, the South has been hammered by winter storms and cold blasts of artic air. Now it looks like we could have some more winter weather, but one thing's for sure is that it will not be as much as last week. We will just have to wait and see what happens down the road in the near future with the weather. I hope everyone had a good day and I'll have a new post tomorrow.
By: JohnnyParker, 1:31 AM GMT on January 18, 2011
There is a chance of rain tonight and tomorrow for the South. The rain will be very light and I expect us to get only in between point fifteen and point twenty hundredths of an inch. This week, the temperatures will range in between the 41 and 54. I know that is not very warm, but it is definitely better than last week. Also on thursday, we will have a cold front that will come through and bring a cold blast with it. Saying that, friday's high will only be forty-one. As we go into next week, highs for the south will range somewhat in what we are going to see this week. Now, the temperatures will still be below average and I expect that they will stay that way into next month. I hope everyone has a wonderful and safe week. I'll have a new post tomorrow.
By: JohnnyParker, 7:55 PM GMT on January 16, 2011
After last weeks' unexpected six inches plus of snowfall, the entire south finally has some rain coming in that will help get rid of the snow. The rain will come in tonight and monday. We could see a decent amount of it too. Now I want to point some things out that I predict that will happen as we go into the middle of January and early February. Okay, first of all we will still see below average temperatures. The second thing is that we may still see some winter weather come through, but I am not entirely certain of that yet. Thankfully, I do not believe that we will see another six inch plus winter storm come through again this winter. The third thing that I expect is severe weather and rain to come through during next month or the later part of this month. This week we will gradually warm up into the low to mid-fifties, but we will still see some pockets of cold air coming out of Canada. I hope everyone has had a safe weekend
Updated: 1:31 AM GMT on January 18, 2011
By: JohnnyParker, 2:14 AM GMT on January 14, 2011
In all the snow we had in the south, my town of Smithville,MS picked up six inches. That is the best and highest snow that we have had since 1996 or 1993. It is so rare to see that much snow here in the south because the climate here is typically humid and hot. The fact of the matter is that the south is not as prepared to handle that much snow. The northeast is more prepared than we are, but I believe next time we will be prepared.
I listen to these scientists and experts talk about Global Warming and think "If we are having global warming, the south should not be having this much snow or any snow for that matter". It is hard to believe for many people across the south that we had this much snowfall. One long-range weather expert, Joe Bastardi says, "that it is the cooling cycle of the earth". I agree with him and he predicts that the winters of 2012-2016 will be brutal winters for the nation. We will just have to wait and see if he is right or not. One thing for sure is that this past snow will take days to melt and some of it could still be with us as we go into next week.
By: JohnnyParker, 3:38 PM GMT on January 12, 2011
The first rare winter storm this year happened on December 25, 2010. I had learned that this was going to happen even before thanksgiving. I was a little skeptical at the time I first learned of it. I had first heard that we could have one to two inches of snow accumulation on christmas day, I was looking at forecasts for several different websites. Also the National Weather Service had issued a Special Weather Statement concerning that we could have a white christmas.
After I learned that, I told all of my friends and family the information on this rare accumulation. Forecasting this winter storm was very confusing because you had one weather website saying no accumulation and another one saying one to three inches. I was still telling everyone that we could have accumulation. Even though these weather websites were telling different information, something was telling me that we would see accumulation. On christmas morning, I woke up and I could see white light coming through my window. I got up and peeked out the window and the snow had accumulated and it was still coming down big. After I saw that, I turned my phone on and as soon as it turned on text messages began to come in. Most of them saying "you were correct on your prediction".
The second rare and major winter storm for the south came in the first weekend of 2011. Now this storm was different because before it came in, there was already cold air in place over the south. The first day that I heard of this winter storm coming was last wednesday. I went to the National Weather Services website and noticed that they had North Mississippi in for significant snow accumulation. After I saw that, I began to ponder what would happen and look at all of my weather resources. The next day, I began telling everyone of this rare winter storm that we could have. Later that day, the National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement concerning the winter storm saying that we could have between 2 and 8 inches or more of snow. When I saw that I was very surprised because usually the south does not get that much snowfall. Then Friday came around and I began to tell people that this could be a major winter storm. Meanwhile when I got home, I looked at it again and this time they had issued a Winter Storm Watch. By now, I was pretty sure that the south was in for a major storm.
Saturday came around and before three o'clock the National Weather Service upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. I was now one hundred percent certain that we were in for a big one. Today I am still out of school because of the winter storm.
By: JohnnyParker, 6:59 PM GMT on January 11, 2011
The first thing that got me interested in the weather is when a big apple tree fell and nearly hit the side of our house in 1999. I was five years old. My mom told me and my sister to come outside the next morning and I was astounded by what had occurred. When I saw how close the tree was to hitting our house, I decided from that day forward that I would become a meteorologist.
I had a computer that I checked everyday to see what the weather would be and tracked hurricanes and warned people of impending storms. I remember telling my mom that "kids just don't understand the danger of weather." She thought I was pretty cute..a 2nd grader trying to be a meteorologist, but she was also proud of me. By the 3rd grade, the kids all called me "Weather Man" and would always ask me questions about the weather. I visited our local TV station, WTVA in Tupelo, MS and helped their Weatherman, Dick Rice, put together a forecast for the 5:00 news. Anytime I got to choose a topic to write about in school, I always chose something about the weather. I still do. My favorite topic is hurricanes. But, it wasn't until the year 2005 that I would really get a taste of what hurricane seasons can do.That year was really destructive for the United States and it killed many people and broke lots of old records. Hurricane Katrina was devastating to my state of MS.
In the summer of 2007, I started working on my very own hurricane book, which consists of hurricanes that have happened all over the world, some dating back to the time of Christopher Columbus. After that I started putting all of the storms on microsoft excel and I'm still working on them today. The websites that I use for tracking storms and hurricanes are weather.com, weatherunderground.com, national weather service, national hurricane center, stormpulse.com, and accuweather.com.
I am also a certified weather spotter for the national weather service and I am a precipitation reporter for the CoCo RaHS - Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network. My motto for weather is "Always Be Prepared".
Updated: 12:17 AM GMT on January 12, 2011