Upgraded HWRF and GFDL Hurricane Models Excelled During Hurricane Arthur

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2014

Today's guest post is by Dr. Morris Bender of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey, and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada of NOAA's National Center of Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC), with help from GFDL's Timothy Marchok. They outline some very encouraging news on the ability of the latest versions of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models to significantly improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts.


Updated: 12:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri Hits Japan; NOAA Holds Summer El Niño Odds at 70%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri made landfall near the city of Akune in southwest Japan's Kagoshima Prefecture on the island of Kyushu just before 7 a.m. Japanese time Thursday (6 p.m. Wednesday Eastern time in the U.S.). Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that Neoguri weakened to maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 60 mph at landfall (equivalent to maximum winds of about 65 to 70 mph using the U.S. 1-minute sustained ...


Neoguri Weakens to a Tropical Storm, Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri continues its steady weakening trend as it closes in on the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Landfall of the center is expected to occur near 6 am local time on Thursday (Wednesday night in the U.S.) Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, Neoguri has now weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite images Wednesday morning showed a continued deterioration of Neoguri's heavy thundersto...


Updated: 9:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2014

Typhoon Neoguri Weakens to Category 3, But Still a Major Flood Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2014

The outer spiral bands of Typhoon Neoguri are lashing the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu as the storm heads north at 15 mph towards Japan. Despite seemingly favorable conditions for intensification on Monday and Tuesday morning, with low wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures of 30 - 31°C, very warm waters extending to great depth, good upper-level outflow, and only modest amounts of dry air, Neoguri mysteriously weakened from a 155 mph super typh...


Updated: 8:20 PM GMT on July 08, 2014

Super Typhoon Neoguri Lashing Okinawa, Headed for Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2014

The outer spiral bands of Super Typhoon Neoguri are pounding the Japanese Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa, as the mighty storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Japan. At 11:30 pm local time (13:30 UTC) Monday, Naha City in southern Okinawa was reporting heavy rain and wind gusts of 43 mph. At 8 pm local time Monday, Miyako-jima reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph. On Sunday, Neoguri strengthened to 155 mph winds, crossing the 150 mph t...


Updated: 4:38 PM GMT on July 07, 2014

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.