Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:25 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Afternoon satellite images and data from the 2 pm EDT Thursday hurricane hunter mission into Invest 96L found that the storm had developed a closed surface circulation, but the storm had little in the way of organized heavy thunderstorm activity, and was not yet classifiable as a tropical depression. As we wait to see if 96L will develop or not, it is worth reviewing the performance of the models we use to forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. Remem...

Hurricane

Disorganized 96L Bringing Heavy Rains to Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

Heavy rain showers are sweeping through the Lesser Antilles Islands as a strong tropical wave (Invest 96L) heads west-northwestwards at about 15 - 20 mph through the islands. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed a pretty unimpressive system, with a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had changed little in intensity or organization since Wednesday. The storm was poorly organized, with a clumpy appearance ...

Hurricane

Updated: 4:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2014

96L Slowly Organizing on its Way to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on August 20, 2014

A tropical wave (96L) located near 11°N 53°W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed the wave had a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was steadily increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Decent upper-level outflow channels were present on the storm's west and south sides. The storm was po...

Hurricane

Updated: 2:15 PM GMT on August 20, 2014

96L Approaching Lesser Antilles a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 10°N 50.5°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, was designated Invest 96L by NHC on Tuesday afternoon, and is headed westwards to west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Thunderstorm activity was beginning to increase slightly in areal coverage ea...

Hurricane

Updated: 8:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

Tropical Atlantic Remains Quiet; Eastern Pacific Heating Up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 11°N 48°W, about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by dry air, though the ...

Hurricane

Updated: 3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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