Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 2 Crossing the Yucatan, Bringing Heavy Rains

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across Belize after making landfall late Monday afternoon in southern Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as seen on Belize radar and satellite loops. The center of TD 2 will remain over land all day Tuesday, but TD 2's west-northwest track may be able to bring the storm over the Gulf of Mexico's southern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday--if the storm hasn't dissipated by then. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and TD 2 may have barely enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds before making landfall on Thursday between Veracruz and Tampico. However, the track of the storm may also keep it just inland during the remainder of the week, keeping it from ever getting to tropical storm strength. Heavy rains are the storm's main threat, but a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. Observations from an AMSU instrument on a polar orbiting satellite on Monday afternoon found that TD 2 had developed a modest warm core characteristic of a weak tropical storm, and it is possible that NHC will upgrade TD 2 to a tropical storm in post-analysis after the hurricane season is over. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.

Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 2 taken on Monday afternoon, June 17, 2013. image credit: NASA.

Participate in Tuesday's live radio call-in show to talk climate change in Tea Party country
I spent last week in Granby, Colorado at the American Geophysical Union's conference on climate change communication. Approximately 100 of the world's top climate scientists and specialists in communication gathered to discuss how to effectively communicate climate change. Four of the speakers at that conference will be part of a radio call-in radio show on KCNR 1460AM from downtown Redding, the politically conservative heart of deep red Northern California. The show is today, Tuesday, June 17, from 10 am - noon EDT. The show will be live-streamed at http://www.kcnr1460.com/, and will be preserved in the archives as a podcast. KCNR is a Fox News radio station with all-conservative talk radio programming, featuring such guests as Laura Ingraham, Dennis Miller, and Mike Huckabee. Call in with questions today at 530-605-4565. The four guests will be:

1) Gavin Schmidt (NASA GISS and RealClimate)
2) Simon Donner (http://www.geog.ubc.ca/~sdonner/)
3) Bob Henson (Rough Guide to Climate Change)
4) Melanie Fitzpatrick (Union of Concerned Scientists)

Jeff Masters

Categories:Hurricane

Updated: 3:03 PM GMT on June 18, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two Forms Near Belize

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

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Tropical Depression Two has formed in the extreme Southwest Caribbean, about 60 miles east of the coast of Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The center of circulation will be over water for about 4 - 6 hours today, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be enough time for the storm to become Tropical Stor...

Categories:Hurricane

Updated: 3:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

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93L drenching Belize, May Have Time to Develop

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

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A well-organized tropical disturbance (93L) is centered over the northwest coast of Honduras, in association with a tropical wave that is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The wave's center of circulation will move over water for about 4 - 6 hours this afternoon, before moving ashore o...

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Caribbean Disturbance Little Threat to Develop

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 AM GMT on June 16, 2013

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A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the Southwest Caribbean near the coast of Nicaragua in association with a tropical wave that is moving slowly west northwest towards Nicaragua and Honduras. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, which will keep any development slow. The high shear is due to the presence of the subtropical jet stream, which is expected to push northwards over the next few days. This may allow wind shear to fall to the modera...

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Colorado's Costliest Fire in History Kills 2; Severe Thunderstorms Pound Mid-Atlantic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 AM GMT on June 14, 2013

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Two people are dead in the Colorado Springs area due to the Black Forest fire, which continues to rage virtually unchecked about five miles northeast of Colorado's second largest city (population 400,000.) The fire' had burned through 15,700 acres by late Thursday afternoon, and was 5% contained. Over 38,000 people in 13,000 homes had been evacuated. The weather was no help on Thursday, as afternoon temperatures spiked to 90°, winds were sustained at 33 mph, gustin...