Tropics quiet except for disturbance 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:24 PM GMT on July 26, 2008

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A tropical disturbance (97L) in the mid-Atlantic ocean consists of a closed circulation with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of wind shear and is over waters of about 26.5°C, and there is some dry air to the west. These are very marginal conditions for tropical storm formation. Conditions will gradually become more favorable for development over the few days, but none of the computer models are developing this system. 97L will probably not affect any land areas, although Bermuda should keep an eye on it.

Jeff Masters

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996. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:24 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
area of interest n cen gom offshore of la/miss/al 098
based upon vis/ir image 1710 gmt or
110edt from gom
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
995. Vero1
4:02 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Dr Masters updated his blog
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
994. IKE
4:01 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
I wouldn't be surprised if a sfc low formed in association with that convection south of LA/MS in the Northern Gulf.


That's part of what came through here yesterday afternoon....terrific rainfall amounts....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
993. extreme236
3:59 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
I wouldn't be surprised if a sfc low formed in association with that convection south of LA/MS in the Northern Gulf.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
992. extreme236
3:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Well I'm still watching a blob NNE of PR...an ULL is to the NE which might have spawned this disturbance...I've seen ULL's spawn disturbances before.

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
991. IKE
3:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting CATfour:
Henry from Accuweather seems to think Dolly could get back into the GOM.Link


OMG...that would be incredible!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
990. extreme236
3:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
so it looks the the SDD site is now calling it a INVEST for are carolina low????


Not quite. The reason the floater is set there is because early this morning the SSD site ran a test and placed the test floater there. They also ran a test dvorak estimate. Both are now gone from the site.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
988. FranAteMyRoof96
3:56 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
LOL! I get it, press.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
987. Tazmanian
3:55 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
so it looks the the SDD site is now calling it a INVEST for are carolina low????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114759
986. surfmom
3:54 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Wow, even with nothing going on --everything is going on. You guys have been working this morning!! Taz -- you are like an every ready battery -- not missing any potentials out there!!!
your post937 showing the "soup" by south FL is a good observation, hmmmmm; Thanks for posting Rob Lightbrown's review - sounds like he is on to something and it doesn't make me feel good (even though I want the waves)

Patrap thanks for this morning's present! The EarthScanLaboratory is a wonderful one for me to wander around in for days and will be very helpful for my 15yr old's school projects... a terrific source -- wondered if the oil spill in the Mississippi will show up??
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
985. CATfour
3:52 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Henry from Accuweather seems to think Dolly could get back into the GOM.Link
984. presslord
3:48 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
OK then ...Calabash Low...which is something only about 3 people will get... :)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
983. extreme236
3:46 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting presslord:
y'all mean South Carolina low....right?!?!


LOL I referred to it as Carolina because I can't tell which coast its off of...it looks like its off the coast of the border.
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982. stillwaiting
3:43 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
981..LOL ..yes we mean SOUTH carolina low!!!LOL..
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981. presslord
3:39 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
y'all mean South Carolina low....right?!?!
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980. extreme236
3:37 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Well it looks like one large trof off the east coast and in the northern GOM...that appears to have spawned the Carolina low and perhaps a future low in the NE Gulf.
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979. MelbourneTom
3:37 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Floater 3 is on the Carolina low.

Link
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978. stillwaiting
3:35 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
local swfl met Talking about a possible gom low developing...said that a broad lowering of pressure is likely, but doesn't think anything will form..I on the other hand believe something may start to form in the next 36 hrs..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
977. IKE
3:35 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Speaking of rain...I had at least 2 inches of rain yesterday afternoon...maybe close to 3...between 4-7 pm....it poured at my house. The lake I live on has come up about 2 1/2 inches in the last week.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
976. CATfour
3:33 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Are we expecting that carolina low to become 98L?
975. IKE
3:33 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
Quoting IKE:
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.


Yea it appears RIP...again lol...it was looking more promising yesterday with conditions that appeared to be improving but that reversed quickly.


I think it's probably history...appears headed NW to NNW...out into the north Atlantic graveyard.
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974. Tazmanian
3:31 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
a look at are
Carolina low
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973. extreme236
3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.


Yea it appears RIP...again lol...it was looking more promising yesterday with conditions that appeared to be improving but that reversed quickly.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
972. extreme236
3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
you no sooner or later we could see 4 name storms out there all out one time like in 1995


you think 236 that AUG could be the mothe for it???


Maybe, I don't know
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971. Tazmanian
3:28 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
you no sooner or later we could see 4 name storms out there all out one time like in 1995


you think 236 that AUG could be the mothe for it???
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970. Tazmanian
3:24 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
236 and that most be are naxt came in town then with are Carolina low any ch 236 that are Carolina low would be come 98L???
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969. IKE
3:23 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Haven't checked in in awhile....97L appears RIP.
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968. extreme236
3:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:
958 Thats what they said last year


Well in the last decade I don't think we have ever gone 3 years without a major hurricane striking the US. There is a strong chance it will happen this year.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
967. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
A Blind Duck in Bangkok can forecast that Tropical activity Picks up in Aug,and that the threats usually favor the East or GOM Coasts.

Thats climatology,not a forecast.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
966. extreme236
3:18 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Taz that is what the UKMET and CMC are showing also. It appears a vigorous tropical wave is supposed to emerge off the coast on Tuesday or Wednesday.
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965. all4hurricanes
3:18 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
958 Thats what they said last year
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964. Patrap
3:17 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Education & Outreach

One of the goals of the Earth Scan Lab is to provide educational resources useful to a diverse audience, with respect to ocean and coastal observation, emergency response, hurricanes and satellite technologies. We hope this website will grow to provide such educational resources. For example, our definition links (always in italics ) provide very short explanations of terms and acronyms used on the website.

The lab maintains an active role in community educational outreach, participating actively in the annual Ocean Commotion event (hosted by the Louisiana Sea Grant College Program) as well as providing numerous tours for visiting dignitaries, political leaders, and visiting K-12 student groups.

Some pictures from the last Ocean Commotion event.

Courses most closely tied to the Earth Scan Lab facility are offered through the Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences. The LSU Hurricane Center offers a program in Disaster Science and Management, with various degree program options. Link
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962. Tazmanian
3:13 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
looks like the gfs is on to some in this AM

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961. Patrap
3:12 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Imagery by ESL Link

The ESL's unique location and capabilities allows it to observe the earth in a variety of ways with surveillance of the Gulf of Mexico being our primary activity. We are equipped for numerous atmospheric views, investigation of ocean applications, and we produce True Color images from a few spacecraft.
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960. extreme236
3:11 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
958.

I saw it...its something to keep an eye on.
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959. extreme236
3:10 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting JFV:
Good Sunday morning everybody! I'm very sorry for not being able to log on at all yesterday gang, I wasn't able to to so, because I spent the entire day with my fiance inside of the hospital, because she caught a stomach virus. So, what have I missed out on lately, it appears that the tropics are quite inactive this morning for the most part, for how much longer do you guys forsee this continuing for?


Well we had 97L return from the grave...things were starting to look good for it again with gradually more favorable conditions and warm SSTs but the wind shear is relentless and is tearing it apart and the NHC has stopped their model runs on it. I'm just watching a weak low pressure off the Carolina coast and a blob north of PR. The only real player in the world is Typhoon Fung-Wong. The current lull in activity could last for a little while. The MJO will be favorable across the Atlantic by mid-August and we should see some pretty good activity by then.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
958. Tazmanian
3:08 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Another aspect of August is the tendency for a
236 did you all so see this part????


easterly flow aloft and at the surface from western Africa into the southeastern United States. This weather pattern sticks out like a sore thump on the ensemble forecasts, with tropical disturbances on the underside of the ridge of high pressure acting as a kind of warning of impending tropical cyclone possibilities. Given the activity already this hurricane season and the shift of the African high pressure system into the Mediterranean countries, which will reduce the influx of hot, dry and dusty air into any tropical disturbances, the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane impact could rise dramatically along the US Gulf Coast and the US East Coast during the month of August
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956. extreme236
3:07 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting cg2916:
StormW, what do u think about 97L now?


Well I guess it's once again Ex-97L now.
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955. cg2916
3:06 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
StormW, what do u think about 97L now?
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954. extreme236
3:03 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
I noticed wind shear in the vicinity of the Carolina low is quite high...but there does appear to be some decreasing wind shear right over the system.
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953. extreme236
3:01 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
I read the Crownwx discussion this morning...they had a very good discussion this morning about what we could see over the next week.
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952. Patrap
2:58 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
GOM IR Loop Link
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951. Tazmanian
2:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
ok here the link


you may want to look at this


Link
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950. Patrap
2:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
The Area off Appalachia Bay has some Potential as the trough hangs along the Coast the next few days.A Small Low Pressure Area,1013 has formed an is expected to drift w,to wsw the Next 48 Hours.

Zoom Sat Look Link
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949. Tazmanian
2:56 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
oh here the map that gos with what i was talking about


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948. PanhandleChuck
2:55 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
941 LOL -- I was looking at 2 CAT 3's before the day is over
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947. extreme236
2:54 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I guess that would be along Georgia/Florida low, Taz?


There does appear to be something off the Carolina coastline....I wonder if that is some sort of non-tropical frontal low.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
946. Tazmanian
2:54 PM GMT on July 27, 2008
940. extreme236 7:50 AM PDT on July 27, 2008
I do see a blob north of PR...looks like it is near an ULL though...that might have helped to spawn the disturbance. I don't see any sfc low with it


its the one north of PR
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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