Tropical Depression 3 forms near South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:27 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

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Tropical Depression Three has formed off the Southeast U.S. coast. Charleston, SC long range radar shows the slow development of a solid spiral band of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center, away from land. The storm is over waters of marginal warmth, about 27°C, a degree above the threshold of 26°C needed to sustain a tropical storm. The warm waters are very shallow, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is near zero, meaning we're unlikely to see rapid intensification of TD 3. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the storm, and is forecast to remain 10-15 knots over the next two days. There is some dry air over the Southeast U.S. that may get entrained into TD 3's circulation. TD 3 could intensify into a weak tropical storm, if the center manages to remain over water. None of the models forecast that TD 3 will intensify beyond a 50 mph tropical storm, and this is a reasonable forecast, due to the relatively cool water temperatures, moderate wind shear, and the presence of dry air nearby. Coastal areas of North Carolina are likely to get heavy rains from TD 3, but it remains to be seen if these rains will penetrate far enough inland to significantly alleviate drought conditions over the state. Heavy rains may also develop over South Carolina, but the main rain will probably remain offshore as the storm passes that state. TD 3 is unlikely to bring heavy rain to any other states, with the possible exception of Cape Cod and Nantucket, Massachusetts Monday/Tuesday.

Links to follow:
Charleston, SC long range radar
Southeast U.S. Marine observations and forecasts


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 3.

Caribbean disturbance 94L
A well-organized disturbance in the Central Caribbean (94L) is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Haiti and Jamaica tonight. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight was unable to find a closed surface circulation, and this evening's 6:51 pm EDT QuikSCAT pass also shows no surface circulation. An upper-level cold low centered over Cuba is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of 94L, but the southern portion of the disturbance is under only about 10 knots of wind shear.

The upper-level low is forecast to slide westward and weaken over the next two days, bringing low wind shear of 5-10 knots over the disturbance Saturday and Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression as early as Saturday afternoon. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to fly into 94L at 2 pm EDT Saturday. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.

Bertha
Hurricane Bertha is still out there. I find it amazing we've had a July storm that has lasted 17 days and counting! Bertha's days are numbered, though. Bertha will reach cold water less than 70°F by Sunday, which should finally kill it.

I'll have a full update on the tropics Saturday morning. Boy, it sure looks like more like September than July in the tropics!

Jeff Masters

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905. Cavin Rawlins
11:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
94L only has one more thing to become a depression and is producing 40-45 mph winds. Just like pre Claudette in 2003 when it was east of the Windwards.

1. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS PRODUCING
WINDS OF 40-45 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT
JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
904. Cavin Rawlins
11:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
8pm TWO

2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
901. MrSea
4:10 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
897 but that African swirl will be a nasty cane!
899. BahaHurican
4:08 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting weathersp:
Remember: Almost nowhere is Safe..

This is all Hurricanes too.
image deleted
wxsp, I just realized how misleading that is to GA coast residents, making it seem storms don't land there. While there has been a 100 year break (100 years! - the rest of the coast hasn't been so lucky) just before the turn of the century (1900) GA was struck something like 5 times in a two year period. Some of those other "blank spots" aren't so blank when one digs further into the historical record.

But your point is well taken, I hope!


873. GulfScotsman 11:43 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Hey, GScot, some of us do live with more than the thought of today in our minds. . . . lol it's called forecasting . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
898. vabeachurricanes222
3:57 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Again if TD 3 was a threat to either FLA or NO thats all we would talk about why do you think 80% of the conversation is about an open wave? because it still has a chance to affect the Gulf states...
897. vabeachurricanes222
3:55 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting CJ5:
Quoting GulfScotsman:

Quoting hurricane23:
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.




Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Well, with all due respect, that is what this place is about. It is quite appropriate to talk about current, developing and potential tropical threats. I don't think anything is being left unsaid about the current threats.


but the thing on africa wont be here for another three weeks, while TD 3 could be a TS uhhh. right now!
895. zoomiami
3:53 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
I've looked and looked, but haven't figured it out. What is the approximate loction of the center of circulation on 94L? On satellite it almost looks like there are two.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
894. extreme236
3:52 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
889.

It may not be accurate but it shows that the system isn't just some weak blob of convection.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
893. TheCaneWhisperer
3:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
94L does have low level convergence which it has been lacking the past several days. That is the only difference with it right now. As I said a bit ago, won't be long, maybe as early as this evening.
892. CJ5
3:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting GulfScotsman:
Quoting hurricane23:
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.




Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Well, with all due respect, that is what this place is about. It is quite appropriate to talk about current, developing and potential tropical threats. I don't think anything is being left unsaid about the current threats.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
891. smmcdavid
3:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Guys... there's a new blog.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
890. drj10526
3:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
879. weathersp 11:46 AM EDT on July 19, 2008

Im a graphic designer, Wuba Wear, thats funny stuff, cat 5 approved, fema approval pending is a nice touch.
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
889. weathersp
3:51 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
885.

Well this thing has almost become a depression about 3 times already and its about to get an extra boost from favorable wind shear and higher TCHP. Recon already found a 34 knot wind reading.


Remebmer thats from flight level which is currently 25,000 ft.. I would highly doubt that's accurate.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
888. extreme236
3:49 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
885.

Well this thing has almost become a depression about 3 times already and its about to get an extra boost from favorable wind shear and higher TCHP. Recon already found a 34 knot wind reading.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
887. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:49 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
remember models are meant for guidance purposes only and are not to be taken as the final desination in any weather event things can and will change stay tune to updated statements form your local mets or the NHC for official information.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
886. will40
3:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
880. thelmores

yea i know thel jus messin wif ya lol
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
885. OUSHAWN
3:48 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
How many times over the years have systems left us scratching our heads wondering why they didn't develop when the conditions became more favorable but for some reason it just didn't happen? I'm not saying the conditions may not become more favorbale...I'm just saying I don't think it will matter. I think 94L will turn out to be one of those systems which leave us scratching our heads again.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
884. BahaHurican
3:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting SWFLgazer:
Instead of crow, how 'bout we all agree to Eskimo Pie?
So long as we get to have a food fight with it first. . . . oooh icy hot in reverse . . . . LOL

Hopefully nobody will need to eat anything they don't WANT to this time around . . .

Now back to your regularly scheduled blog . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
883. drj10526
3:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
i think 94 might be the storm the help the southeast with their drought. to me it looks like it is going to head NW over the western part of cuba then into GOM and up the western coast of FL. just what i think after watching the water vapor loops
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
882. FranAteMyRoof96
3:46 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Yay! GulfScotsman is here! I, for one, get and appreciate your satire, good sir. Plus, you tend to help keep the "OMG!" posts in check.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
880. thelmores
3:46 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting will40:
855. thelmores


thel did you put that in the center? looks a lil off to me lol


I was just showing TD3's eye.... LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
878. extreme236
3:46 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Aircraft recon just got a 34 knot SFMR reading from 94L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
876. extreme236
3:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Here is 95L from the NHC EPAC discussion:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT SHOWED SIGNS OF DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN A FEW DAYS AGO HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EMERGED INTO THE EPAC ALONG 90W MOVING W ABOUT 10
KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N/13N. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IT FITS A PAIR OF SHIP OBS AT 12Z.
THE WESTERN-MORE SHIP (OUSH2) LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 20 KT NW WINDS AND THIS WAS USED TO OUTLINE THE
WIND FIELD IN THE HSF PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. SOME OF THIS IS
OVER S PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO AND
THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
875. thelmores
3:44 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Man..... I love this blog!!!!

TD3 looks better
TD3 looks anemic
94L looks better
94L looks worse
94L = Katrina
94L = iNVEST
TD3 will be Crystobal
TD3 lots of bark, little bite

LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
874. extreme236
3:43 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
94L still has a ways to go. But I don't understand how you right off a system that is just now starting to move into a ripe environment for some intensification...low shear, warm SSTs, higher TCHP, etc. 94L never had any of this before until about now. It already has 30 knot winds so its pretty vigorous.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
872. Tazmanian
3:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
856. vabeachurricanes222 8:35 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL me mad why would i be mad???


in fac i am happy right now that 94L did not get has strong has they where forcasting at this point where 94L but i dont think its going to stay like that for march longer






well you just said that everyone that says 94L wont develop u will ignore


ok whats this drop what i said and move on to 94L and TD 3 ok???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
871. BahaHurican
3:42 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
672. tennisgirl08 10:36 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Good morning everyone!

I look at satellite imagery and 94L doesn't look all that impressive. The 8am update at NHC says that it has not become any more organized this morning. Yet, Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC and some of you on here say a closed circulation is very close to forming and is on its way to becoming a TD. I am really confused and this storm has really been giving me fits!!


Hey, tgirl. It's really not that confusing in one sense, because both of those statements (from NHC and from Dr. Lyons) are true.

What's really confusing is that they've been true for days . . . Since the beginning of this week 94L has been favoured to develop because it has had some of the elements of a potential TD/TS in place since then. However, the basic, most basic qualification for a tropical cyclone is that it has to be a cyclone (that is, a closed low, with the winds circulating counterclockwise towards its centre). Without that, the Twave is just another area of low pressure.

So while a closed low is close to forming (last time I checked, it was winds from the west along that southern edge that were lacking) it's not there yet. And it's been like that at least since, oh Wednesday? So the ideas are not really opposite. They're just really frustrating . . . LOL

And 94L IS really impressive. . . for a Twave. What I can't figure out, despite all the careful and thorough explanations here and elsewhere is WHY it is struggling so hard to get that low closed off. Last year we had naked swirl after naked swirl; they'd have 3 wispy surface clouds, but that closed low would be there, spinning away. What did those lows have that 94L doesn't????
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
869. OUSHAWN
3:41 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
If there is a LLC with 94L, which I don't think there is, than it's totally exposed to the west of all the convection. The convection is with the mid level circulation it appears. This thing is still a ways from being classified...IMO.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
868. will40
3:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
855. thelmores


thel did you put that in the center? looks a lil off to me lol
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
867. hurricane23
3:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
865. extreme236
3:38 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
You can tell some dry air is effecting TD3 with the central convection rather weak right now. A nice curved band around the center though. Should soon become a Tropical Storm.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
864. extreme236
3:39 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting GulfScotsman:
Quoting msuwxman:
94L is really piling on the convection! More than I have seen on it in a while!


Difluence from the ULL along the wave axis. This convective burst is already beginning to past peak and will now slowly die away.

In about 4 hours we should see very little left of any mid level rotation and the OPEN wave axis should be quite visible moving west with some minor popcorn convection through DMIN.


What are you talking about? Last night you said there wasn't going to be a depression and 5 minutes later it was on the NHC site lol...I highly doubt what you just said will come true.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
862. afj3
3:37 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Greetings to everybody. I have grown up with hurricanes but am kind of new to tracking them. Does anyone know where I can find a site with access to--and explanations of--the computer models and other related materials in a more real-time fashion?

Thanks!!!
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
861. Patrap
3:37 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 20 frame Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125548
860. pvbeachbum
3:37 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
790. pearlandaggie 3:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
well, no one is safe...


Thanks pearlandaggie - I like this graphic. It makes me feel safer on my barrier island near Jax since my hubby is out to sea during hurricane season every year.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 280
859. msuwxman
3:37 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
846. Yeah....Katrina was no fun. Neither is the clean-up afterwards...
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
858. hurricane556
3:36 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
94l is looking better now
Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
857. pearlandaggie
3:35 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
bbl, folks.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
856. vabeachurricanes222
3:35 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL me mad why would i be mad???


in fac i am happy right now that 94L did not get has strong has they where forcasting at this point where 94L but i dont think its going to stay like that for march longer





well you just said that everyone that says 94L wont develop u will ignore...
855. thelmores
3:35 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
Quoting pearlandaggie:
828. is that an eye i see? LOL


yea.... I think so! LOL

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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