Four areas of interest to watch in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:32 PM GMT on July 17, 2008

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We're now up to a total of four areas in the Atlantic that we're keeping an eye on. Where should I start? I guess the most logical place is the only named storm. Before I get there, below you'll find a satellite shot with all four systems marked. I know you guys have been waiting for this post judging by the emails that I've gotten, so here we go:

two_atl.gif
Current active systems of interest

Bertha is still hanging around the central Atlantic and at this point is becoming one of the longest-lived tropical storms on record. She is already the longest-lived July storm on record. The over longest? Hurricane Inga in 1969. The big question on how long Bertha last is how long it takes her to fully extratropically transition.

A note of interest, Bertha brought 4.76 inches of rain to Bermuda, which was right on with forecasts. There was a bit of a surprise to the intensity of her southern bands as a hurricane hunter found near hurricane force winds there. Fortunately, the Bermuda Weather Service was able to post a hurricane watch. The maximum recorded wind in Bermuda was a 79 knot gust, and the eyewall never actually cleared the west end of the island and left that area under the more severe southwest eyewall.

Currently Bertha is still packing winds of 60 mph, which may be generous, with a central pressure of 997 mb. After taking a swing to the southeast which was well forecast, Bertha has now turned to the east at 9 mph and should soon begin moving to the northeast.


Bertha - Watches and Warnings

Bertha has been looking ragged for a long time, but there is still relatively healthy convection to one side of the storm. If not for this burst of convection, Bertha would be weakening much more quickly. Right now there are no clear signs of extratropical transition visible on satellite, but this will be something to watch in the new few days.

20080717.1845.goes12.x.ir1km.02LBERTHA.50kts-997mb-339N-578W.100pc.jpg
Bertha - Infrared satellite

The dynamical models have done a good job forecasting Bertha's movement. It is largely for this reason that confidence is high in their forecast over the next 48 hours. As Bertha moves toward the northeast, there is some question of how she will transition. Extratropical transition is not well grasped by any forecast model. Accordingly, confidence in the forecast beyond 48 hours is low, especially when it comes to intensity. I expect Bertha to be with us for at least the next few days.

Click for full size model imagery:

Bertha - Track Forecast


Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast

Alright, now moving on to our first area of interest, Invest 94L. This system showed a great deal of potential earlier in the week, but the circulation never developed. At this point the proximity of the convection to the land of South America combined with the 'dead zone' for tropical cyclone genesis that seems to exist over the eastern Caribbean will likely preclude development. The warm water is fairly shallow in this area and subsidence from storms over South America also tend to act to cap convection. We will continue to monitor the system, but at this point conditions are not favorable. While convection looks healthy at this time, I expect that it will soon quiet down again.

20080717.1845.goes12.x.ir1km.94LINVEST.30kts-1009mb-126N-642W.100pc.jpg
Invest 94L - Infrared satellite

Invest 94L should continue its march across the Caribbean and we will monitor it the entire way. There is also a hurricane hunter scheduled to investigate the storm today, but I doubt it will find much if it flies.

Click for full size model imagery:

Invest 94L - Track Forecast

In the western Caribbean there is another area of organized thunderstorms approaching the coast of Guatemala. This system looks like it is not going to have enough time to develop before reaching land, but it will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of Central America.

20080717.1845.goes12.x.ir1km.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-136N-825W.100pc.jpg
Invest 95L - Infrared Satellite

Of more immediate interests to those of us in the states, the area of thunderstorms that was in the Gulf yesterday has moved across the Florida peninsula and is now floating off the Georgia coast. The convection is not all that impressive, but its proximity to land warrants close observation over the next couple of days.

20080717.1845.goes12.x.ir1km.96LINVEST.20kts-1013mb-305N-803W.100pc.jpg
Invest 96L - Infrared Satellite

The system is expected to slowly move northeast along the coast, following the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This is another reason while we'll keep a close eye out. I'm still actually awaiting the latest model runs but they should populate to this page automatically... (fingers crossed)

Click for full size model imagery:

Invest 96L - Track Forecast

Cheers,
Bryan Woods

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2883. tomas5tex
2:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2008
Good evening all. Normally I just sit back read the comments of the smarter people here but decided to come out of lurking. I live in Texas on the upper texas coast and I am paying alot of attention to 94L. Right now I am California with no rain insite and will be coming back to Texas this weekend. Thanks to all for there insite of the ins and out of this wonderful mess we call..."THE TROPICS"!!!
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
2882. hosweather
10:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
I wonder where apocalypse is today. He has been saying for days that 94L would explode once it passes 73west. Methinks he got it right.
2881. drj10526
10:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
click on MSLP & front and you can really see the storm grow right inside the low

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
2880. drj10526
10:13 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting LPStormspotter:
would one of you really smart hurricane vets. Look at the link on 2855 and tell what you think


I live in CT and that looks like a lot of rain for me
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
2879. HurrikanEB
9:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting pandorasbox:
Good afternoon. Is the general thinking that 94l will move to yucatan and possibly to so. texas?


it would appear so. possibly between yucatan and cuba (gee, i just cant remember the name... some straight.)

on a side note about bertha:
she would have lasted the same amount of time as ivan in 04 if ivan hadnt made that gulf loop
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1301
2878. weatherspirit
9:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
New blog...
2877. Thundercloud01221991
9:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181555
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 18 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBB CYCLONE
C. 20/0245Z
D. 33.7N 77.3W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK...CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

3. SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/1345Z
D. 16.1N 78.9W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 06AAA CYCLONE
C. 20/0115Z
D. 17.2N 81.6W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 21/0000Z.
5. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 18/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 17/2230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF



they are flying everywhere tomorrow looks like an active day
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2876. katadman
9:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Yes, what is the General thinking will become of 94L?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
2875. LPStormspotter
9:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
would one of you really smart hurricane vets. Look at the link on 2855 and tell what you think
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
2874. pandorasbox
9:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Good afternoon. Is the general thinking that 94l will move to yucatan and possibly to so. texas?
2873. melly
9:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
pottery..I think something like "The Wall" comes to mind
2872. BahaHurican
9:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting hurricanejam:
The Meteorological Service of Jamaica is closely monitoring 94L.The forecasters are waiting to see if the NHC will classify 94L as a T.D. If they do a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued tonight.
Thanks for the information. I'm sure they would say something about stormy weather even if it isn't a TD . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
2871. pottery
9:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Ah ! Thel. That Mr. Floyd. Its all coming back.............

LOL
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2870. LPStormspotter
9:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Storm W did you look at #2855 link? Will you and tell me what you think
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2869. thelmores
9:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
no pottery..... this is Mr. Pink Floyd......

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
2867. LPStormspotter
9:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
2855 THAT IS TO SCARY
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
2866. CATfour
9:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
I'am very surprized that 96L was not upgraded to TD at the 5pm. What's going on with the NHC people?
2865. wxpaladin
9:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
well everyone have fun i'm out for now
Member Since: June 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
2864. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
thanx bryan
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
2862. TerraNova
9:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting thelmores:


Quoting TerraNova:
Latest visible imagery of 96L shows it getting it's act together but it still lacks convection NW of the center. IMO this would be subtropical on the first advisory.


96L is a warm core low and really doesn't have a subtropical look to it at all.


I agree, looks more tropical to me...... GFDL/hwrf agrees as well....

96L gfdl phase analsis

96L hwrf phase analysis


Both of those analyses show 96L as a subtropical cyclone at the moment. In order for the model to analyze it as fully tropical, the marker must be at the lower right hand quadrant of the first phase diagram and the upper right hand quadrant of the second.

Here's the explanation for the second diagram, where both models are in close agreement:

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2861. HurricaneGeek
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
hmm quite a bit of SAL, I wonder... but I thought that the models were We'll see.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
2860. pottery
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Did Pink Floyd have a brother called Irate Ivan? And a sister called Krazy Kat or something ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23903
2858. HurricaneGeek
9:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
JFV 2845. Yes some of them are.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
2857. thelmores
9:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting TerraNova:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Quoting TerraNova:
Latest visible imagery of 96L shows it getting it's act together but it still lacks convection NW of the center. IMO this would be subtropical on the first advisory.



More goes into subtropical classification that convection being one-sided. A lot of it has to do with the core of the low being warm or in-between. 96L is a warm core low and really doesn't have a subtropical look to it at all.


96L is not tropical as of yet. It's a warm seclusion cyclone with a thermal wind too cold to be classified as fully tropical at the moment. Cyclone model phase diagram.


guess we will just have to disagree..... agreed? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
2856. melly
9:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
StormW How are you friend?
2855. wxpaladin
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
He's a good model run for you guys to look at Link
Member Since: June 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
2854. txalwaysprepared
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
2846. nola.. thanks. That's what I thought, but I keep seeing these doom posts of the GFDL having it heading to XX and I wasn't seeing any of that. THanks!
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2853. pottery
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
JFV, check the SAL images. There is too much dry air, and a huge area of Sahara dust in the Atl. No chance of anything there.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23903
2852. Panhandle89
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071812-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=An imation
2850. melly
9:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
I am sure IKE will disagree with me
2849. thelmores
9:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2008

Quoting TerraNova:
Latest visible imagery of 96L shows it getting it's act together but it still lacks convection NW of the center. IMO this would be subtropical on the first advisory.


96L is a warm core low and really doesn't have a subtropical look to it at all.


I agree, looks more tropical to me...... GFDL/hwrf agrees as well....

96L gfdl phase analsis

96L hwrf phase analysis
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
2848. melly
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
pottery.No need to know the Floyd group.....Just remember the best ever.....Repeat after me.Lynyrd Skynrd
2847. kmanislander
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Buoy at 15/75 now down to 1008.5 and still falling
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15687
2846. noladba
9:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
ok.. now I am royaly confused. Where does the newest GFDL run have 94L going?? Mexico? Texas? NOLA? I've seen comments suggesting all three!


The latest run on the wunderground tropical page shows it fizzling out in the Western Caribbean. Seemed like a pretty dramatic change between runs, but I don't know why.
2844. atmoaggie
9:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
2832, 2836, 2838...yes, Floyd (didn't really expect responses)

You guys (everyone) have been talking so much tropical, I thought I throw in a little diversion.

Now back to it...

Edit: Now, pottery, if you don't already know, you probably wouldn't understand (I know you do, though).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2843. pottery
9:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Pink who ??
LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23903
2842. houstonstormguy
9:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Hello everyone. What's the latest read on 94L?
What impact does ULL have on intensification and direction?
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
2841. crashingwaves
9:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
I'm interested in the low pressure near GA.The NHC said it could develop in to a TD. I live in NC, the weather forecasters are telling their viewers to monitor the progress. I sure hope it doesn't become a TS, with the little warning we're getting now.
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2840. wxpaladin
9:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
2833...it's presently shearing 94L as we speak...but te way 94L looks to be forming and tracking, I would say it's a CAM storm
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2839. hurricane556
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
you can see 94l circulation moving west right now at 74 west
Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2838. TX2FL
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quoting GrndZero:
Hey all, been lurking for years so decided to make my presence know and join in this year. Looks to be getting a little active.


Welcome to the 'machine'...(who knows the artist?...c'mon)


Pink Floyd I believe? :)
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
2837. Panhandle89
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
I think the ULL will keep it well south and it will crash into the yucatan. OR the ULL could pick it up an pull it north. Kinda like Ernesto.
2836. TampaMishy
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quoting GrndZero:
Hey all, been lurking for years so decided to make my presence know and join in this year. Looks to be getting a little active.


Welcome to the 'machine'...(who knows the artist?...c'mon)

? Pink Floyd???
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
2835. TerraNova
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Quoting MississippiWx:
Quoting TerraNova:
Latest visible imagery of 96L shows it getting it's act together but it still lacks convection NW of the center. IMO this would be subtropical on the first advisory.



More goes into subtropical classification that convection being one-sided. A lot of it has to do with the core of the low being warm or in-between. 96L is a warm core low and really doesn't have a subtropical look to it at all.


96L is not tropical as of yet. It's a warm seclusion cyclone with a thermal wind too cold to be classified as fully tropical at the moment. Cyclone model phase diagram.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
2834. txalwaysprepared
9:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
ok.. now I am royaly confused. Where does the newest GFDL run have 94L going?? Mexico? Texas? NOLA? I've seen comments suggesting all three!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
2833. dipatel1
9:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2008
Could the ULL shear apart 94L or it would find another path?

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.