Bertha turns to the east, Invest 94L still there

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:33 AM GMT on July 16, 2008

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Tropical Storm Bertha has finally turned toward the east at 6 mph and is now packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and her central pressure has ticked up to 996 mb. A general track to the east is expected to continue for the next few days with slight strengthening possible.


Bertha - Watches and Warnings

Bertha is starting to look pretty ragged on satellite imagery. Her circulation is becoming elongated due to synoptic steering patterns, but shear over the center of circulation remains low. Deep convection is limited but sufficient to maintain intensity at this time.


Bertha - Infrared satellite

As Bertha moves to the east, large meanders are expected in her track. Additionally, there is slightly warmer water ahead of the storm so slight strengthening is possible. Bertha is still not expected to be a threat to land of the next week. Shipping interests should still monitor the storm as there is a huge amount of divergence in track forecasts beyond 72 hours.

Click for full size model imagery:


Bertha - Track Forecast



Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast




The wave that has been traveling across the Atlantic still does not look that well organized, but convection has increased from yesterday. Right now I give the system a roughly 40% chance of development. Convection has finally started to build near the center of circulation, but has not been sustained enough to create a closed circulation. We will continue to monitor the system for signs of development.

20080716.1015.goes12.x.ir1km.94LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-127N-532W.100pc.jpg
Invest 94L - Infrared satellite

Model forecasts still bring this area of interest over the eastern Caribbean, which is often not favorable for tropical development. None of the models go crazy with this system, but some do still show signs of development.

Click for full size model imagery:


Invest 94L - Track Forecast



Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast




Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is an area of thunderstorms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico that has a slight chance of reaching tropical depression status before arriving over Florida. No threat is expected from this system and it could bring beneficial rains to the northern Florida area.

Gulf_IR.jpg
Area of storms approaching Florida

Writing for Jeff Masters for the week, Bryan Woods

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2632. drj10526
9:08 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
rookie question....
when do we get the GDFL for invest 96?
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
2631. PanhandleChuck
9:08 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
where did everyone go?
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
2630. PanhandleChuck
8:57 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
good afternoon all --- looks like things got a little more crazy in the atlantic since this morning
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
2629. drj10526
8:46 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Quoting bwi:
Only slightly off topic:

Any guesses on what the bright white image that flashes in the lower-left corner of the 16:45 UTC frame of the visible floater loop on 94l is? Oil rig flare?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


if you look at this loop you can see the flash as the sunshine moves over..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
Member Since: February 28, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 340
2628. BrandonC
8:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

Recon is out surveying 94L and by what I can tell it looks like a possible COC has been found but I'm not saying either way . . .
2627. OSUWXGUY
8:37 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Recon finding some stronger 20 kt WSW winds at ~1000ft
2626. weatherspirit
8:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
New blog is up
2625. nrtiwlnvragn
8:35 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
The Google Earth view of the RECON is neat. Visual of wind direction and flight path.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
2622. presslord
8:25 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
OSU...me too..don't feel badly...I was on a completely different subject...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
2621. TxWxFan
8:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2595:bwi
That is probably the sun reflecting off the area marshes. Notice it only showed in the visible pics. Also, if you look close you will see the sun's reflection in the waters just north of the coast line as it transitions from east to west.
Member Since: September 11, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
2620. TheCaneWhisperer
8:24 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
The flash is the point at which the sun intersects the viewing angle of the satellite.
2619. 69Viking
8:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2611. IKE

LOL! You mean 96L isn't rapidly strengthening!?!? Presslord will be dissappointed, he has the camera & bourbon ready!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2618. TheCaneWhisperer
8:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
.
2617. KarenRei
8:21 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
We sure have ourself a rather swirly Atlantic right now, don't we?
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
2615. TheCaneWhisperer
8:20 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
That flash on the visible is the sun passing over. What your seeing is it's reflection.
2614. CaneAddict
8:17 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2604. btwntx08 7:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
is it me or 94L is getting bigger cloudtops alot colder hmmm if that is under the coc(which is likely is) its a td


It's not that easy....It needs to be organized with heavy consolidated convection and a evident closed circulation.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
2613. OSUWXGUY
8:15 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
.
2612. Tazmanian
8:13 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
can i have a update on 94L 95L 96L Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
2611. IKE
8:12 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Oh well...at least the blog being screwed up has run all of the trolls and..."it's rapidly strengthening" folks off...lol........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2609. kmanislander
8:11 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Sorry guys but could not get in for a while. Good point about the heat low Storm.

The research I did showed that in the last 30 years ( from 2007 ) only 6 or 7 TD's were ever classified between 63 and 73 West and of that number 4 or 5 were low pressures that spun up on the tail end of fronts in Oct and Nov. That meant that there had been only a couple that had developed from Easterly waves over a 30 year period.

I did not go back further than that as it took a lot of time.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2608. weathermanwannabe
8:05 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2595. bwi 3:36 PM EDT on July 17, 2008
The "flash" looks larger than a single oil rig flare...Don't have a clue (Since it looks to be in a jungle area, it reminds me of the explosion in Predator 1 when the alien self destructed in front of Ahhnold at the end of the movie)....Oh Well
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
2607. OSUWXGUY
8:05 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2605. StormW 7:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2008

Hadn't heard of that factor before...

What I had heard of that made the eastern Caribbean the graveyard for developing systems are twofold.

1. The trade winds are typically stronger in this region (a kind of funnel effect) leading to higher shear than in the central Atlantic or the Western Caribbean.

2. The above trade winds lead to lower SSTs/lower TCHP

Climatological shear bears this out a bit...

2606. presslord
8:02 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
@ Bryan Woods website they define meteorology as trying "..to approximate chaos..." every time we think we have them figured out, the weather gods remind us who's in charge....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
2603. presslord
7:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
camera...check....bourbon....check...OK...I'm ready....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
2602. IKE
7:53 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
This website is messed up again.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2601. 69Viking
7:48 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2592. presslord

Get your camera ready presslord, I have a feeling this is going to be a little more than an invest when it does arrive on your porch! We're all watching the Caribbean and this sneaks across Florida into the Gulf Stream, go figure!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2598. jaxbeachbum
7:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
StormW-Yes, what is the dead zone? Also, where does one go on the web to find out what lows, highs, troughs, etc...look like to someone who isn't familiar looking at radar images. Nothing complicated, just a simple "how to" to know what one is looking at. I am familiar with StormJunkie.com but there is a lot on there to go through. I learned a lot from you guys last year and lost a lot also. TIA!!!
Member Since: July 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
2597. presslord
7:38 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
stormw and kman...I'm vaguely familiar with it...find it pretty scary....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
2595. bwi
7:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Only slightly off topic:

Any guesses on what the bright white image that flashes in the lower-left corner of the 16:45 UTC frame of the visible floater loop on 94l is? Oil rig flare?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
2594. kmanislander
7:36 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Anybody ever wonder about the "Dead Zone" kman keeps speaking of?


Did you research the stats on that area Storm ?. I have in the past.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2593. IKE
7:34 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Not sure if it's because of the number of posts...but this blog will not load with FIREFOX for me...only IE....it is s-l-ow..........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2592. presslord
7:34 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2589..yea...looks more like my front porch than out to sea....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
2591. nash28
7:32 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Hmmmm... I am a little surprised that they are tasking 94L. Looks like an open wave.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
2590. kmanislander
7:33 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Quoting Skyepony:
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/0600Z AND 1200Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 16/2200Z.


They were late getting out there. I see 30kt surface & a broad area of 1008mb.


Thanks. 1008 is not bad given the sat. presentation but the heavy thunderstorm activity would also drive down the pressure some
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2589. 69Viking
7:31 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
2580. CaneAddict

Out to sea? 4 out of the 6 models show it hitting land before going out to sea.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2588. Skyepony (Mod)
7:29 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/0600Z AND 1200Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 16/2200Z.


They were late getting out there. I see 30kt surface & a broad area of 1008mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38198
2587. sporteguy03
7:26 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
JPL
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
2585. blueranch1
7:25 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
96L wow. Stevie boy u see that!
2584. kmanislander
7:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon is flying in 94L, less than 1000', so far 1007mb, 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph) wind.


I thought the tasking for 94L had been cancelled ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2583. tennisgirl08
7:23 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
Hi everyone! I am new to the blog and feel that I had to chime in. My feelings are that 94L is the big player here. The HH is going to investigate this system later today and there has been a massive flare up of the thunderstorm activity according to the latest satellite imagery. If 95L shear doesn't hinder it, it will become a tropical depression by tonight or early tomorrow and will eventually end up in the southern GOM somewhere. This storm is a concern and doesn't want to give up!
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1242
2582. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:17 PM GMT on July 17, 2008
point of no return for 94L is at the ne point of colombia as it enters the cen carb 70w 14n it is there that it will fire up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54410

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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