Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:47 AM GMT on July 15, 2008

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Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.


Bertha - Watches and Warnings

Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.

Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.

Click for full size model imagery:

Bertha - Track Forecast

Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast

The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.

The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.

Click for full size model imagery:

Invest 94L - Track Forecast

Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast

Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.

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1077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:39 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
all the time cane a dic pal dont lip off about someone if they are not here to defend themselves
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1076. JLPR
4:37 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
ahhh finally I could log in !!!! ha!!! =O
It took me like 2 hours lol to figure out a way
what happened to WU?
I was in the backup site just lurking =P

I ended up getting here through a proxy =(
men I got a few questions for any of the admins here!!!
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1075. CaneAddict
4:35 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Keeper, Not really.
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1074. catwomen
12:35 AM EDT on July 16, 2008
Still waiting it could be also some posters had a problem getting on this site today and this evening. I saw on another forum. where posters were saying they couldn't get on this site. I bet some of the regulars that come here went to another forum to chat on. Just my guess
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1073. stillwaiting
4:36 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1066, she's been open for about 24hrs now
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1072. stillwaiting
4:35 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
and there is quite a bit going on tonight,granted bertha was "hitting" bermuda yesterday..
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1071. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:31 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
cat woman later this afternoon there was a server mess up on wu 75 percent of the people can not log in then get server errors and messages and not allowed into site
some like myself you and a few others have no problems just dont clear your cache or your history or log out or ya may not get back in
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1070. stillwaiting
4:33 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1069 look how many post compared to the last 2 nights, they were in the 1200's i beleave at this time last night..
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1069. catwomen
12:27 AM EDT on July 16, 2008
1065. stillwaiting 12:25 AM EDT on July 16, 2008
this blog has been unusually slow tonight????



Well seeing its 12.30 am Wednesday morning, people have to go to work. Not me I'm out for the Summer, one advantage of working for the school system. But anyway, it could be people are getting tired of the storm that wouldn't die. Also the invest may not develop in to anything, seeing the environment is becoming less favorable for development.
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1068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:22 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
but you promote your site all the time
caneaddict
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1067. CaneAddict
4:26 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
However I think there are hints of a circulation right under the deep ball of convection that has formed to the east of the whole wave axis.
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1066. CaneAddict
4:25 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
It is becoming very difficult to identify any circulation with 94L. Is she opening up?
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1065. stillwaiting
4:24 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
this blog has been unusually slow tonight????
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1064. CaneAddict
4:12 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1011. Tazmanian 1:57 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
i started my own site this site is a back up site fourm so when evere this site gos down or off line you would have a back up weatherunderground to come to


Also Taz, I'd suggest you to not have a site representing another site for your own protection of getting a copyright claim pulled against you. Also if your trying to get alot of traffic to your site by telling everyone to use it as a back-up site, YOu need to stop.
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1063. CaneAddict
4:05 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Good VERY early morning folks!

I'm up and wide awake for some unknown reason. Anyway I see that Invest 94L is gaining some much-needed convective activity. There is three distinctive new bursts of convection that are currently expanding and organizing to some extent. However the circulation seems to still remain in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere at this time and in order for tropical depression formation to occur we would obviously need a evident low-level circulation. Conditions are marginally favorable at this time but I am beginning to think that if 94L doesent begin to get it's act together soon development will probably not occur.
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1062. catwomen
12:05 AM EDT on July 16, 2008
Maybe next week we will see some waves develop. Don't look like much this week.
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1061. AndyN
11:04 PM CDT on July 15, 2008
weatherblog: If you look at the last frame, its a whopper.....looks ominous....waves are really starting to lineup as we enter the peak part of the season.
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1060. weatherblog
3:59 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
AndyN, what do you see there? I don't think I can find what you're exactly trying to point out.
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1059. dcabrer1
11:57 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
I've also been having alot of problems with this site.
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1058. philliesrock
11:54 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
The site has been fine for me all day.
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1057. AndyN
10:51 PM CDT on July 15, 2008
Look at the storms coming off coast of Africa. Pay close attention to last frame.Link
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1056. BajaALemt
3:50 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Quoting shoreacres:
The word from on high:

346. WundergroundDevs (Admin) 9:55 PM GMT on July 15, 2008
There was a problem with our DNS registrar that caused our domain to point back at the registrar's holding page. There will be residual problems until the corrected information spreads through the internet. Sorry for the trouble.

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1055. weatherblog
3:46 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I log on to see a slow blog tonight. But, somehow we have a tropical storm, an invest, and a disturbance in the GOM.

You'd think this blog would be packed...LOL
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1054. watchingnva
11:46 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
whats up with the damn site today....did she get hacked...alot of suspicious stuff ...alot of problems for everyone...
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1053. BajaALemt
3:43 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Antilles/loop
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1052. AndyN
22:38 CDT le 15 juillet 2008
What's going on with the site? I had to go to the French site to get here. I get Forbidden 403 when I type in www.wunderground.com.
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1051. BajaALemt
3:34 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Thanks sport
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1050. BajaALemt
3:30 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Well THIS is cool. I didn't notice until now that I've got 3 metars just hanging out in space east of PR in GR3...North to south...St. Maarten...Nevis...Antigua
Cool!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1049. sporteguy03
3:32 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
The HH are in St.Croix awaiting the morning to see if they have something to fly into.
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1048. BajaALemt
3:25 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I wonder what's up with the 'B.'......flight 1....invest.......flight 2...cyclone
Things that make ya go...hmmmmmm
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1047. weathersp
11:23 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
1046..

2 Flights?.. Dang they aint takin any chances..
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1046. BajaALemt
3:21 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 15 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-045

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 16/1545Z
D. 13.5N 56.0W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES AT 17/1800Z
IF THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1045. msphar
3:09 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
sort of a horse race between 94L and WU fans tonight
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1044. stillwaiting
3:09 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1039, so it's going to turn around???
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1043. BajaALemt
3:10 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
GMZ089-160930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN LIFT N OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRI. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING AN INCREASE OF WINDS TO THE
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN

Sounds like they used the GFS for this
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1042. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:07 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
dmax begins around 2am ends at the paleing of the sky our time
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1041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:03 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
94l trackin towards the lower windwards looks wsw if its going to do it now is the time to kick itself in gear
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1040. condesa
2:51 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Three waves- considered highly favorable for development- what do you all think?
100°W and south of 18°N
50°W and South of 17°N- strong convection
31°W and south of 17°N- strong convection interacting with the ITCZ
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1039. hurricane91
3:03 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
the thing in the gulf is not going to drift north, its going to drift to the wsw for the next 24-36 hrs, then start to move to the north east
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1038. hurricane91
3:01 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
94 L is not becoming a TD anytime soon, it needs a lot more convection to wrap around it coc, but who really knows what this thing is going to do....
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1037. OUSHAWN
2:53 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I wouldn't place all my bets on this low in the GOM going north. Steering currents are very weak right now and it could just as easily go west under the expanding ridge. This will be interesting to watch over the next 24-48 hrs. The one thing I do know is shear in the GOM has finally relaxed and now it appears to be pretty favorable for development and this may be a mid to upper level low but I don't think it would take long for something to happen.
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1036. BajaALemt
2:59 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Yah...RUCs showing the stall
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1035. northtxhurricane
2:55 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I think 94L is developing into a tropical depression as we speak. It has looked very good and TD-like since the diurnal minimum and I wouldn't be surprised if it develops at 5 a.m.
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1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:49 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
baja area of interest west coast of fla s tampa in gom will stall for the night with rapid thunderstorm dev again tomorrow and a slight n ward movement along the coast shifting northeastward slightly by evening
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1033. BajaALemt
2:49 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I could be wrong but the coc appears to be just west of Bradenton?
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1032. sarasotaman
10:47 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
My Elevation here is 10 feet. If the Rain wraps on the East side of the low we cat get big rains. so far its most on the west and south of the center.
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1031. sarasotaman
10:39 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
Surfmon if you are still on the rain is starting to fall here in Vamo
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1030. tropicalmiami
2:41 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
anyone doubting the existence of a weak low off tampa...here you go (from the miami forecast discussion issued at 918pm tonight:

AT THE SURFACE...TAFB HAS A 1013-1014MB SFC LOW ANALYZED
JUST SW OF TAMPA/ST PETE AREA AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SFC OBS AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE BLOWUP OF CONVECTION NEAR AND S/SW OF THIS SFC LOW THIS EVENING...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH PERHAPS INCREASED DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS MASS HAS BEEN SPINNING ITS WHEELS WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE SW FL COAST.
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1029. BajaALemt
2:42 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Tropics are definitely interesting today
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1028. Felix2007
10:41 PM EDT on July 15, 2008
By the way... there is a system a little east of 94L that also bears watching. Don't think 94L is the only player in town!

Felix
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1027. BajaALemt
2:37 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I like the RUC for short term...it does a pretty good job.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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