Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:47 AM GMT on July 15, 2008

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Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.


Bertha - Watches and Warnings

Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.

Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.

Click for full size model imagery:

Bertha - Track Forecast

Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast

The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.

The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.

Click for full size model imagery:

Invest 94L - Track Forecast

Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast

Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.

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1127. bocaman
2:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2008
To maintain the type of convection 94L has there is no way it is a mid-level circulation. It may be hard to visualize the LLC but it's there.
1126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:03 PM GMT on July 16, 2008
94l is heading right for ya barbados convection still building looks to be aimed to cross southern windwards
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54237
1125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2008
good morn all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54237
1124. BajaALemt
11:43 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Morning folks..

94L looks like it's still firing up convection, but I still dont see the circulation translating to the surface (last quickscat) *shrugs*

RUC looks to be showing the precip for this time much farther south than where it is and the GFS shows it in the same general area as the RUC (little more south of actual) and sends it over the peninsula overnight to the NE. NAM, show a slightly different solution....up the coast and then NE at the Big Bend area.

LOL...who knows *shrugs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
1123. JoeyG100
11:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Quiet on here this morning
1122. JoeyG100
11:27 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
The cmc develops something off the coast of Virginia in about 120 hours - but then again the cmc develops everything
1121. presslord
11:21 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
NC...that's it...seems to be a little bloblette out there...actually down by GA/Fl line..thanks...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1120. cajunkid
11:18 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
anyone need therapy lol

there is a backup site(www.wund.com) just no blog
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1279
1119. NC0WX0Man
11:17 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Rainbow Imagery shows a 1013mb low off of the Fl panhandle coast so is this the surface low? Also I don't see anything off of the SC coast yet but I know there was models forecasting another low to form there.
1118. presslord
11:15 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
again, there seems to be something off the SC coast...and something hinted at it last night...I forget which model...Do any of you great minds have any thoughts? Thanks!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1117. NC0WX0Man
11:15 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Ok now back to the tropics. So is there a surface low down there by Fl and if so after it crosses Fl can anyone tell me which way it will go? I see 94L took it's sweet time waiting to finally get it's act together but I agree with the too late and too long crowd.
1116. NC0WX0Man
11:12 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Oh My Gosh I missed Wunderground so so much! I didn't know what to do with myself yesterday evening and this morning until I could finally get back on the site and it feels so good to be back!
1115. heretolearninPR
11:11 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1114. The whole website was done for a long time and I think it is just getting its act back together
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
1114. DrBobLade
11:00 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
What's with the graphics on the website? The tropics front page graphic is missing and no graphics in Inv 94 are available???
Member Since: June 13, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1113. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:33 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Philippines Atmospherical, Geophysical, Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
============================

Tropical Storm "HELEN" has slightly intensified and accelerated while it continues moving in a north direction.

Tropical Storm Helen (Kalmaegi) is positioned as of 4pm PST at 19.5ºN, 123.5ºE or 210 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. The system has 10 minute sustained winds remains at 50 knots (95 km/h) with gusts up to 65 knots (120 km/h).

Signal Warning Number 2 (60-100 km/h)
=====================================
Luzon Region

Northern Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Apayao
Batanes
Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 km/h)
=====================================
Luzon Region

Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ilocos Sur
La Union
Pangasinan
Benguet
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45513
1112. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:33 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Warning #26 (0900z 16Jul)
==========================================
At 09:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (985 hPa) located near 19.5N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The storm was reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
130 NM east from the center
110 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.9N 123.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 30.3N 123.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45513
1111. KoritheMan
10:33 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I'm having trouble finding anything bad to say about it right now.

lol the way you said that, it made it seem like you were just itching to downplay it. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 581 Comments: 20762
1110. stoormfury
10:31 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
QS miss the area this morning . CANNOT TELL IF A CLOSED LOW IS FORMING
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2708
1109. all4hurricanes
10:28 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
now 94L is improving but a little too late even if it reaches TS strength in the little time it has it will probably just die out afterwards unless it stays really far south conditions will rip it apart.
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
1108. stoormfury
10:22 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
MORNING
it looks like mid lvel is trying to get under the big mass of convection. should that happen we will see a TD today
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2708
1107. druseljic
9:58 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
The blog is back, thank goodness. 94L is really putting on a show this morning!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1106. Tazmanian
9:47 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
i starteda back up weatherground for thing this like this or when evere a site gos down

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1105. wxpaladin
9:46 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Well what can I say, but this has been an active night for tropical weather:

1. The cyclogenisis the spun off of the lower trough axis yesterday is currently about to make it's way on shore thanks to the front still digging in the GOM. All indication say that this will make landfall in the Naples area south of Tampa as a minimal TDep (odds are will not be listed by the NHC unless it gets itself together after it crosses Florida).

2. 94L is becoming very impressive. The low lvl circ has finally caught up with the massive blob of convection and is moving to favorable areas. Should be a TDep or TS within a day.

3. The massive blob of convection behind 94L has been eaten up by the ITCZ, but the low lvl circ associated with that convection has made its N'ly jog and is now out of the ITCZ. Expect to see this develop as well.

4. Well what can be said of Bertha. She just won't die. However, her death will be soon. Presently, she is being sandwiched by the strong trough to it's W and the deep ULL to it's E. Bertha will wobble between these two but will eventually be absorbed by the ULL and the front and move N.
Member Since: June 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1104. druseljic
9:34 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Lost in the blog...is this working for anyone???
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
1103. JLPR
7:50 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
quick very late at night post lol then back to bed again =D

94L is looking very nice I suspect that the low is under the blob in the west side of 94L
If this continues we may have a interesting scenario tomorrow morning
and if this continues the HH will surely fly to see if they find something =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1102. msphar
7:41 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Barbados will have a surprise in the morning.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1101. pablolopez26
7:31 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Lets hope that it does go away... (94L i mean)
1100. KarenRei
6:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Huh. I planned to come on and decide for good that 94L is dead. Instead, it's still visibly rotating on shortwave (right beneath that big blob of convection, too), convection is flaring more than you'd expect even for dmax, the dry air is running out, and it's just about gotten to a significant increase in TCHP. I'm having trouble finding anything bad to say about it right now.

I planned to email my mother and tell her not to worry, 94L is on its way out. However, since I don't want to eat crow re. my mother, I'll put that off at least until tomorrow. ;)
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1099. weatherblog
6:13 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1089.

Yeah, it is which makes up for when it is started decreasing last month. lol
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
1098. pablolopez26
6:12 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
If 94L develops i can certainly see problem for Texas and gulf coast in general.
1097. weathersp
6:12 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
I am un impressed with 94L for being D-Max. HH will be in there tomorrow at 5 PM EDT.. I am just gonna wait till then.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1096. weatherblog
6:08 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Good evening!

If anyone is wondering what's going on in the tropics, I have a tropical update on my blog. I spent a really long time working on it and would appreciate if anyone would go by and read it or leave a comment/question. Thanks!
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
1095. melwerle
5:59 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
ok - it only took me a bizillion hours to get here...on and off...and now it WAYYYY to late. what happene?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
1094. 7544
5:52 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
yellow circle alert for the sw fla blob by the nhc for a 20% chance to form hmmmm this one goes north to pan handle if it does

94 should make it tonight weak it goes to texas strong new ballgame stay tuned were in dmax now

bertha due to move to se in 24hours round round she goes
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
1093. bocaman
5:32 AM GMT on July 16, 2008


Look at the band starting to wrap itself around the SE side.
1092. bocaman
5:27 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Looking at the last infared frame (445 UTC), has 94L finally started something.
1091. bluehaze27
5:25 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Regardless of whether something forms from this batch of waves or not, it clearly looks like it's going to be a hellacious August and September
Member Since: March 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 813
1090. JLPR
5:20 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Also 94L has a much stronger vorticity at the surface than yesterday

WS
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1089. JLPR
5:17 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
before i go to bed look at this:
TCHP is rising super fast =O

TCFP
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1088. 7544
5:17 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
yes still waiting i cant tell if it moving if it sits there and spins for another 6 or 12 hours it may be something ill be watching both at dmax ty
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
1087. stillwaiting
5:09 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
you can now clearly see a surface low represented on tpa radar about 80 miles sw of sarasota..now if it can stay far enough offshore and have some consistent covection near the center we could have to watch it(i think we will just in case)..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1086. JLPR
5:07 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
well im out =P
I hope tomorrow to find a completely fixed WU =)
goodnight everyone
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1085. 7544
5:03 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
94l looking good just before dmax starts this maybe the push it needs to get better organize at tonights dmax much better looking than last night before it hit dax if all goes well it could become a td by 11am wait and see
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
1084. bluehaze27
4:57 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Small flair up on 94l


Link
Member Since: March 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 813
1083. stillwaiting
4:52 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1079, not at the surface, if at all
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1082. JLPR
4:50 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1081. bluehaze27 4:45 AM GMT on July 16, 2008 Hide this comment.
Hey, WU is back up!!! Alright. Earlier, like everyone else, I got an underconstruction site and then a forbidden message on my laptop at work. My home computer works fine. I see the problem was the domain pointing back....anyway, here is a story on the lengthening hurricane seasons. It was one of the last posts I made before the gremlins took over.
-----
ahh lol I still cant access WU normally =(
Maybe they are fixing the problems little by little?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1081. bluehaze27
4:45 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Hey, WU is back up!!! Alright. Earlier, like everyone else, I got an underconstruction site and then a forbidden message on my laptop at work. My home computer works fine. I see the problem was the domain pointing back....anyway, here is a story on the lengthening hurricane seasons. It was one of the last posts I made before the gremlins took over.

Link
Member Since: March 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 813
1080. philliesrock
4:43 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
Baseball All-Star game: Tied 3-3 in the 12th inning.

Sorry it's off-topic, I just had to post it. =)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
1079. CaneAddict
4:43 AM GMT on July 16, 2008

1073. stillwaiting 4:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1066, she's been open for about 24hrs now


Wrong, she still has an associated area of low-pressure.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
1078. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:42 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
go to dev blog theres a message there concearning the problem from admins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54237
1077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:41 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
all the time cane a dic pal dont lip off about someone if they are not here to defend themselves
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.