Nothing new with Bertha

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2008

Share this Blog
2
+

I'll echo the statement of Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avilla in the 11 am Hurricane Bertha discussion: "After a week or so...I am running out of things to say about Bertha." Hurricane Bertha has slowed to crawl, and remains in no hurry to recurve out to sea. The storm continues its rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the inner eyewall dissolved, leaving a new, much larger eye. Bertha's structure is sufficiently sloppy that significant intensification is not likely, despite the presence of wind shear less than 10 knots and water temperatures of 27.5°C. Shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots until Monday morning, when it should rise to 20 knots. At that time, Bertha should be over 26°C water, and will probably weaken to tropical storm strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their second flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are starting to affect Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar.

Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam

_
Figure 1. Microwave image of Bertha from 5:45 GMT 7/12/2008 showing the vary large eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

High surf of 9-15 feet is already affecting Bermuda, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 61% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Monday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, and I don't expect this will happen.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The models are more scattered in their prediction of a tropical depression forming between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 4-7 days from now. One model, the ECMWF, has dropped its forecast of a depression forming, and the two remaining models disagree on just when such a depression might form. There are not any impressive tropical waves near the coast of Africa presently, so I'm currently dubious of the model predictions of a Cape Verdes-type tropical storm forming next week.

I'll post an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters

South Shore Bermuda (denmar)
Hurricane Bertha weather in Bermuda on Friday July 11th, 2008
South Shore Bermuda
Hurricane Bertha 2008 (LRandyB)
As we made our into the outer edges of the storm, the clouds began to thicken up and the seas began to get rougher
Hurricane Bertha 2008
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6 (LRandyB)
Looking out the window as we approach the outer eyewall, the banding of the clouds is obvious.
Hurricane Bertha 2008 - 6

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1355 - 1305

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

1355. tinkahbell
9:45 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
I don't see an update..... :/
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
1354. Felix2007
4:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
The South Carolina disturbance is in bad shape, but 94L is looking extremely good, and there are favorable conditions for development, so I think it will become Cristobal in a couple of days.

Felix
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1353. Dakster
4:28 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Is it me or is the GFS becoming accurate atpredcting when and where storms will form?

I don't remember this accuracy last year with the GFS...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1352. BahaHurican
4:21 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting presslord:
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....


Wait.

You mean there's more than one?!?!?!?!

[opens eyes extra wide]
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
1351. surfmom
4:17 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
1333 - great handle --mine should have been Franbrokemynose ROTFL
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1350. catastropheadjuster
3:58 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3653
1349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
bertha looks to be slowly shifting se with building cloud deck ne

invest off caroline coasts appears to be slowly starting to rebuild convection lets see what the daytime heat does to that

94l got to start pullin up just a bit

lots to watch this 13th of july
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1348. stoormfury
3:54 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Drak is right as long as the system has it's appendages attached to the ITCZ then development will be slow to occur. the longer the 94L stays within the itcz the longer track will move due west and create problems for the islands and the central and northwest caribbean
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2600
1347. Chicklit
3:53 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Well, I'm sufficiently impressed for one morning. Will check back this afternoon.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
1346. nrtiwlnvragn
3:53 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
1345. FranAteMyRoof96
3:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
Good morning all. I have a question. On this wv loop (Link),
there is a small spin just east of the bahamas. If that is an ULL, that
would impede any development of the blob off Charleston if it keeps
moving towards it, right?

Not trying to be a pest, but thought I would repost this question now that it's 95L.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
1344. hurricane23
3:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Here's a visible of the LLC of the South Carolina coast.

Tiny thing.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1343. 0741
3:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting 0741:

Quoting Drakoen:

Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????


Yes.
you so right i been seen your posting you say by sunday and today it happen you very good keep good job
1341. aubiesgirl
3:50 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
wooooww.I leave for about an hour or so and bam..it's heatin up
1340. Drakoen
3:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting 0741:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????


Yes.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1339. FLWeatherFreak91
3:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
1333 You're handle is hilarious
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
1338. Chicklit
3:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Re: SAL...doesn't look good, does it Ike?
hmmm. Maybe the system behind 94L will weaken it?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
1337. watchingnva
3:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
i will tell you one thing...she doesnt look great, but berth is trying to fight back...with more, stronger covection south and north...

even still, time to shift focus to 94l and soon to be 95l...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
1335. IKE
3:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
IKE, am I reading that map right? Looks like widespread SAL but generally weak.


True.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1334. 0741
3:47 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
this the one model were forcast??????
1333. FranAteMyRoof96
3:47 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
IKE, am I reading that map right? Looks like widespread SAL but generally weak.
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
1332. IKE
3:47 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting JRRP:
94L go to venezuela ??


Not according to the TPC
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1331. Chicklit
3:46 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
(Aside) Yes JFV is a very polite young man, but I would also like to see him in a tee shirt.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
1330. JRRP
3:46 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
94L go to venezuela ??
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5337
1329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:45 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
i got a total of 3 floaters for atlantic up on my screen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1328. IKE
3:44 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting Chicklit:
Batten the hatches mates! Things are going to start getting crazy around here. Is there a chance the system behind 94L could weaken it, if 94L does develop? (which according to NHC appears likely at present...shear is incredibly low.) Is there any African dust to be had?



SAL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1327. Chicklit
3:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Batten the hatches mates! Things are going to start getting crazy around here. Is there a chance the system behind 94L could weaken it, if 94L does develop? (which according to NHC appears likely at present...shear is incredibly low.) Is there any African dust to be had?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
1326. Drakoen
3:42 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
invest off south north caroliner on ssd site is that a mistake


That's not a mistake. There's an area of low pressure there that could see some slow development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1325. watchingnva
3:41 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
so do we have invest 95l off the carolina coast now...wow

things are def. heating up now...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
1324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:41 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
invest off south north caroliner on ssd site is that a mistake
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1323. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:40 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting presslord:
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....



If you really want to kick up a dust storm try referring to The Virginias. Brings back all the pain an resentment of the Resent War of Northern Aggression
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1322. watchingnva
3:39 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
hows everyone doing this morning?...how busy will everyones ignore user button be over the next few days as this system forms...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
1321. FranAteMyRoof96
3:38 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
They also moved the "NC Fires" floater to watch the area off of SC:

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
1320. Drakoen
3:38 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.


Drak. Is this the result of the perturbation you were referring to a few days ago? Because if it was, you hit the nail on the head with the formation of this system!


It was an unmarked tropical wave so I called it a perturbation within the ITCZ. MIMIC-TPW started showing some bulging moisture and some cyclonic rotation which is typical of tropical waves/lows.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1319. IKE
3:37 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting watchingnva:
94l is def. trying to get a llc going around 9,37...i dont think it will take that long to get going....watch to see the mid and upper levels to start spinning alongside by tommorrow morning....should be a fun one to watch organize...sad thing is, i dont see this missing everyone. someone will be affected...in some way, shape or form.


I would agree.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1318. CJ5
3:37 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Morning all. I see we have 94L and of course Bertha is still churning. I wonder if we will be including Bertha in our discussions along with 95L, 96L, 97L and so on. She doesn't seem to want to exit..lol
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1317. all4hurricanes
3:37 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
If 94l becomes Cristobal would it survive passing through the Caribbean?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
1316. FLWeatherFreak91
3:35 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.


Drak. Is this the result of the perturbation you were referring to a few days ago? Because if it was, you hit the nail on the head with the formation of this system!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
1315. hurricane23
3:35 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Low level convergence looks great.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1314. Drakoen
3:33 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.


Yea. It's great that the NHC and SSD are working fast on getting this invest status and getting a floater on it. You can see the LLC pretty clearly on vis/rgb imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1313. hurricane23
3:31 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
This should slowly but surely organize over the next day or two.Still very broad in nature but with a clear cyclonic rotation.When it pulls out of the ITCZ look out.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1312. watchingnva
3:30 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
94l is def. trying to get a llc going around 9,37...i dont think it will take that long to get going....watch to see the mid and upper levels to start spinning alongside by tommorrow morning....should be a fun one to watch organize...sad thing is, i dont see this missing everyone. someone will be affected...in some way, shape or form.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1494
1311. Drakoen
3:27 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Expected to move towards the WNW:
Photobucket
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
1310. hurricane23
3:27 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Floater up on SSD for 94L..

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
1308. txalwaysprepared
3:22 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Can anyone tell me when the H currently over part of the Gulf coast is forecast to move it's hot, dry butt?
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1307. presslord
3:22 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Baha...once Aqua started referring to "the Floridas"...I started to feel a little better....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1306. BahaHurican
3:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting NC0WX0Man:
Presslord why do you get so bothered by the Carolina reference? I live in N. Carolina and all the time when the local news or mets are refering to both they say the Carolina's. I've heard older people refer to SC as NC's sister state so why do you get upset?


"The Carolinas" is plural, implying there are two of them. Where is the "Carolina" coast?

Press, I can feel ur pain. To Wit:

Let me put out the advance notice: The Bahamas IS (singular) a country. The Bahama Islands are (plural) an archipelago of more than 1000 islands, cays (pronounced keys) and rocks. The word "Bahama's" should not be used because it is a possessive form of an adjective!!!

See press, ur not the only one who gets picky about a name . . . LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
1305. HurricaneMaryJane
3:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2008
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
1186. HurricaneMaryJane

JFV is one of the few pure in heart left in this cynical world. Sort of our Forest Gump only smarter. That's why we all love him so.


Yea he's a good dude. I love you JFV! Your one of the last genuinely nice people left on Earth lol...

Viewing: 1355 - 1305

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.