Bertha heads towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2008

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Hurricane Bertha continues trundling along towards Bermuda, but is not in a hurry to get there. The storm has a rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the eyewall dissolved last night, with a new, much larger eye taking its place. Bertha will probably start to intensify today now that this Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) is done. Wind shear is low (less than 10 knots) and water temperatures are warm (28°C). Shear if forecast to remain below 10 knots until Sunday, but the water temperatures will gradually cool to 26°C by the time Bertha reaches Bermuda's latitude on Sunday. Intensification back to Category 2 status seems probable, and Bertha still has an outside chance at reaching Category 3 status again. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their first flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength.

_
Figure 1. Forecast of wave heights for 8am EDT (12 GMT) on Saturday, July 12, from the World Wave Model. Wave heights in excess of 4 meters (13-14 feet) are likely near the center of Bertha.

High surf is already beginning to affect Bermuda, and the World Wave Model (Figure 1) predicts that waves will continue to build at Bermuda through Sunday as the storm approaches. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting waves of 9-13 feet in the island's outer waters by Sunday. There is about a 47% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, but given the very weak and unpredictable steering currents forecast to affect Bertha by Sunday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. Wind shear is expected to rise above 20 knots on Sunday and Monday, and this could knock Bertha down to tropical storm strength by Monday. Bertha could affect Newfoundland as a tropical storm in a week's time, as predicted by the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. Three out of four of our reliable computer models are predicting that a tropical depression may form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 day from now. These models did a pretty good job forecasting the formation of Bertha this far in advance, so the potential of another Cape Verdes-type storm forming next week needs to be taken seriously.

I'll post an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

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1774. AirTrafficMan
5:00 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Teal71 is in Bertha...oh, that didn't sound very good....Teal71 is examining Bertha...crud, let me rephrase..

The hurricane hunter aircraft is presently flying within the area of Hurricane Bertha. They flight planned abount another hour in the area and then back to Biloxi. Carcah advised me today they also plan another flight tomorrow.
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1773. FLWeatherFreak91
4:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
new blog guys
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1772. all4hurricanes
4:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2008

*cough*Cristobal*cough
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1771. Michfan
4:15 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Quoting JRRP:
this wave near 46w 11n looks better than when 91L was declared
Link


You can't link the satellites like that. You need to put in the entire link.
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1770. all4hurricanes
4:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
When where there be a new blog I want some more info
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1769. Michfan
4:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Good morning everyone. Looks like we may have another wild ride to watch after Bertha. Here is to hoping this one doesn't meander as long and makes up its mind!
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732
1768. all4hurricanes
4:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
If that wave on Africa becomes Cristobal and doesn't turn north it could hit leewards and PR as cat 2 I'm making some wild guesses but it could happen
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1767. TerraNova
4:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Low pressure is forecast to develop with the easternmost cluster of convection (the general area in which the GFS develops a cyclone) within 24 hours. QS missed that blob but caught the western fringe of the wave to it's west, where winds were blowing from the north.

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1766. JRRP
4:08 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
this wave near 46w 11n looks better than when 91L was declared
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1765. sporteguy03
4:07 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
We are all weather hobbyists at best but some do a have a degree in meteorology.
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1764. Drakoen
3:57 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I imagine the models will have just as many problems with forecasting this new Storm as they did with Bertha. Reason being, it basically has the same elements to deal with- it's just beginning a little further south and west. I wouldn't be surprised if it follows the same 'curve' as Bertha did but shifted down and left.


Don't mention any left/west shift lol.
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1763. TerraNova
3:53 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I've noticed that the GFS attempts to develop the wave ahead of it's forecasted EATL system (currently located west of 40W along the ITCZ) as it nears the Leeward Islands but has never really done anything too significant with it. It has been showing an open area of low pressure developing along the wave axis as it moves further west into the Caribbean, and this is the system the CMC and previously the ECMWF want to develop near Jamaica next week.

It's something worth watching, of course, what isn't these days.

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1761. cycloone
3:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I’m convinced we will have to wait a while for Cristobel
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1760. FLWeatherFreak91
3:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I imagine the models will have just as many problems with forecasting this new Storm as they did with Bertha. Reason being, it basically has the same elements to deal with- it's just beginning a little further south and west. I wouldn't be surprised if it follows the same 'curve' as Bertha did but shifted down and left.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3620
1758. TerraNova
3:49 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Morning everyone!

AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.

LOL. Looks like Avila's up to his usual sense of humor.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1757. Drakoen
3:47 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Quoting JFV:
Would that movement continue beyond that point for the forseable future Drak? Therefore, eventually threatning the North Antillies as advertised by many of the models this morning my friend?


The GFS has been consistent in targeting the Leeward islands. Thereafter anywhere is possible.
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1755. Chicklit
3:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Is that low the system Kman was talking about yesterday?
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1754. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Hard to worry about something that hasent even formed into a invest.


Models are tools,the real time is reality.


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1753. Skyepony (Mod)
3:43 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Most recent cooridinates put recon just left of the floater. Getting closer.
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1752. Skyepony (Mod)
3:42 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 15:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bertha (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2 (See all URNT11 messages from this mission.)
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 15:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.4N 72.2W (View map)
Location: 387 miles (623 km) to the SSE (150°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 12 knots (From the SE at ~ 13.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -44°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

Remarks: SWS 021KTS
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1751. Tazmanian
3:42 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
94L soon
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1750. Patrap
3:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Morning Melagoo..the site has a Lot to offer the Tropical Watcher,certainly

ESL from LSU Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1749. Drakoen
3:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
The TPC is expecting an area of low pressure to form within the next 24hrs, catch up with the wave axis in 48hrs, and become a closed low moving to the WNW in 72 hours.
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1748. Tazmanian
3:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
am not sure heh you have to ask the nhc
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1747. FLWeatherFreak91
3:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Ok. Everyone in Puerto Rico, virgin Islands, martinique, barbados, DR, cuba... . Make this one go away because it's worrying me :)
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1745. Melagoo
3:39 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Hi Patrap :c)

I love the LSU site good info there
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1744. Melagoo
3:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Wave Parade!

This has to be a invest ... Right Taz?
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1743. fire635
3:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I agree melagoo... One model puts a decent system just north of Puerto Rico in the next several days while another shows the same system entering the carribean. Both show a very defined system though.
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1742. Patrap
3:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)Link

GOES-12 Channel 4 (IR) GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) GOES-12 Low Cloud Product
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1741. Tazmanian
3:34 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
if evere thing plans out next week we could see 3 or more new name storms next week
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1740. Melagoo
3:33 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I wonder what Dr Masters will say with respect to all the wave action coming off Africa?

Looks to me like at least one Hurricane is in there
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1739. Tazmanian
3:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
so we sould have 94L vary soon then may be by tonight or on sunday
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1738. philliesrock
3:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Quoting Drakoen:

Great find Drak!
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1737. HurrikanEB
3:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
does anyone have an explaination for the west-east orientation of the storm? i dont recal ever seeing a storm like this
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1736. Drakoen
3:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
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1735. Kexnicious
3:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
StormW... What do you make of this? Possible system next weekend?

1734. pottery
3:22 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
I've been gussing all morning........
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1733. SouthDadeFish
3:21 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
So is that new surface low Drak mentioned the area StormW was talking about on then RGB loop? I thought I saw some turning near 35W.....
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1732. fire635
3:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Anyone else gussing that we'll have a new Invest by this evening?
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1731. nash28
3:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Yep. This could be the year of the long trackers.
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1730. HurrikanEB
3:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Bermuda is very lucky right now. If bertha was centered about 100 miles to the west they would be in for one long ride
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1336
1729. fire635
3:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Morning all.. Im sure Im behind the mark, but the newest models sure are showing that we will be talking about alot more than Bertha in the next couple of days.
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1728. AirTrafficMan
3:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Yup...0800N/03500W is churning. Beginning of rotation and IR loop is indicating some growing tops. BTW...present position of Teal71 is about 1+45 hours away from Bertha. Currently at FL240 and flight plan is to spend 2 hours with Bertha at 10000 feet and below. gotta love those guys to spend hours and hours in a very luxurious C130. LOL
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1727. Drakoen
3:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2008
Theres a new surface low within the ITCZ:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
1726. Kexnicious
3:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2008

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.