TD 16 not too impressive...yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:01 PM GMT on September 06, 2005

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The center of Tropical Depression 16 was just fixed by the NOAA hurricane hunters a few miles north of Grand Bahama Island, which is 110 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Peak winds found by the hurricene hunters on the west side were just 20 knots, and the central pressure was a very high 1010 mb. TD 16 is still very disorganized, and is not a threat to intensify rapidly for the next 1 - 2 days.

The peak winds and most intense convection is found well north of the center, in the ocean areas between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville. QuikSCAT satellite winds of up to 30 - 35 mph exist in this region. The St. Augustine CMAN station reported sustained winds of 37 mph at 1pm EDT, which is only 2 mph below tropical storm force. Daytona Beach has reported heavy rain and winds gusts up to 25 mph in squalls the past few hours.

Melbourne radar shows a large area of echoes circling a very ill-defined center 200 or so miles east of Lake Okeechobee. Doppler radar estimates of the wind velocity from the Miami radar are no longer available, as the Miami radar has failed, and may be down the rest of the day.

As far as intensity goes, TD 16 is in a low shear environment of 5 - 10 knots, and the shear over it is expected to decrease the next two days. I believe that by tomorrow night we will see TD 16 turn into Tropical Storm Ophelia. However, the upper-level ouflow to the northeast of the storm is going to be hampered by the upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Nate. As long as Nate continues to show little movement, TD 16 will suffer and will not be able to intensify very rapidly. By the end of the week, when Nate is expected to move away to the northeast and leave TD 16 behind, more significant strengthening can occur, assuming TD 16 has not made landfall in Florida.

TD 16 should move very slowly the next three days, since it is trapped under a strong high pressure ridge where steering currents are very weak. A slow northward or northwestward motion is indicated by most of the models, which would bring heavy rains to the east coast of Florida all week. The GFDL model, in contrast, moves TD 16 rapidly across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. None of the other forecast models show this, and the GFDL solution is being discounted at this time.

Jeff Masters

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1150. FrankieSC
1:20 PM GMT on September 07, 2005
Jeff has posted a new report...
Member Since: August 22, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 15
1149. SherryB
1:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2005
I think I need to start building my ark..this rain just won't quit!!
1148. muffinanne
1:08 PM GMT on September 07, 2005
Ophelia will definately make a loop....which will resemble the first letter of her name!!!! She's just a part of this wacky hurricane season, so why shouldn't she make her mark?
1147. billsfaninsofla
11:26 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
our local weather mentioning the loop, potentially the whole state is "in the cone" according to them...like lefty said, they have no clue where she is going yet...
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5572
1146. aquak9
11:16 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
morning ya'll.
Geez. I sleep for 6 hours, and wake up under a tropical storm watch.
Good call on the loop, lefty.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 168 Comments: 26067
1145. timl2k5
9:39 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
In the last few radar frames from Melbourne (long range) look like it's trying to get more organized. I see some bands SE quad now.
1144. StormJunkie
9:21 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Kim Perez is kinda hot in a strange sorta way.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1143. leftyy420
9:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
lol night storm j
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1142. StormJunkie
9:17 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Good night!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1141. StormJunkie
9:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
I was about to say I am not going to read the discussion because they are just going to say what I already learned here tonight which is-who the hell knows.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1140. creekchub00
9:13 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
good night everyone, looks like we have somthing to watch for the next week or so....
Sleep well all and stay safe!
1139. leftyy420
9:13 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
wow that was the worse disscussion lol. they have no clue what she will do. any of us are as good as they are right now but they mention their speed and motion is based on the last 3 recon fixes whixh is what i was saying. we night all catch yall tomm. lest see what new suprise is awaiting us when we get up
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1138. Canenut
9:11 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Well, now that I've read the discussion, time to sleep and ponder it, goodnight all!
1137. leftyy420
9:09 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
i think the loop will be a little bigger than they show. she will be moving into a weakness left by nate that will close quickly and kick her south than sw than w
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1136. leftyy420
9:08 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
but thats how it works, forward motion is a 3 hr position fix. so its at that speed till the next 3 hr fix. thats how u track a cyclone. just how it is done by all agencies
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1135. StormJunkie
9:07 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
So big loop or small loop-ie cutback?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1134. StormJunkie
9:06 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
I hate that they would handle it that way to try and make themselves look good. They should just give the current forward speed even if it does not match up with last position.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1133. leftyy420
9:04 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
yeah but she will slow down. her motion was more due to reorginisation if u ask me
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1132. StormJunkie
9:02 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Damn, I keep freezing up my sat and radar trying to refresh at the same time.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1131. StormJunkie
9:01 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Speed up to 8mph?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1130. StormJunkie
9:01 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
The gfs takes her all the way back close to Grand Bahama.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1129. leftyy420
9:00 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
also they are forcasting a cat1 cane by day 3-4. she is getting interesting
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1128. leftyy420
8:59 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
i am actually shocked they show the loop in the 5 day cone. i think she will be more north when she makes that loop but we will see
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1127. StormJunkie
8:58 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Yeah Shera once we wear ourselves out with info and speculation.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1126. leftyy420
8:57 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
lol yeah canenut. yeah we are waiting for the disscussion than off to bed. takes them forever to get that disscussion up
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1125. StormJunkie
8:57 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Yeah these wunderground circles are a joke.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1124. StormJunkie
8:56 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Just waiting for the discussion and then I am off to bed.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1123. Sheraqueenofthebeach
8:55 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
do you guys ever sleep?
Winds are ~ 25 to 30 mph in Flagler Beach.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
1122. Canenut
8:55 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Hey! It's not a 5 day cone! It's a circle... lol
1121. leftyy420
8:54 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
they are all orety much in cincensus thru this trime period anyway and they are prety on track. only the gfdl is off track so far
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1120. StormJunkie
8:53 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
So how are the models in relation to current point.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1119. StormJunkie
8:51 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
They show the begining of the loop at 5 days.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1118. leftyy420
8:49 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
yeah i saw thta. that will change the intensity forcast and mark the shift tthey will make in 12 hrs or so to show the loop. that will be a funny forcast track
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1117. StormJunkie
8:49 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
The gfs takes it pretty far south at 144 hrs. Acouple of model also are showing a couple of systems off of Africa later in the forcast.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1116. leftyy420
8:49 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
thanks canenut. i am more inerested in the disscussion myself. they break things down for you and just disscuss whats happening. so all the rest of the info i could care less about most of the time lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1115. Canenut
8:49 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
So yeah, they shifted the track to the right.
1114. timl2k5
8:46 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
StormJunkie, re Katrina vs. Charlie, just the available fuel? Katrina was kind of small too until she blew up over the deep waters of the central gulf(which she spent a lot of time over as a slower moving storm). Charley was a faster mover I think? and only had shallow warm waters for fuel...
1113. Canenut
8:45 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.4N 80.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
1112. leftyy420
8:45 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
yeah wild i am opk most of the time lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1111. leftyy420
8:44 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
well the gfdl does not show aloop, but i am like the nhc. i want one more set of model runs befor i say with certainty it will loop or where it will go once it loops. but i said earlier this one will be interesting no doubt
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1110. willdd1979
8:42 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
LOL thats why i like you lefty
1109. creekchub00
8:42 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
I am in Tampa.
The thing is 4 of the models call for a loop of sorts. Two of them being "good" models (GFS and GFDL) The GFS has been forecasting it slightly since the 12z run on the 6th and the UKMET since the 5th.
Seems like you have to start assuming this is a solid possibility.
1108. leftyy420
8:41 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
wild its govt money laudering lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1107. leftyy420
8:40 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
though i must say the ukmet, nogaps, and gfs recent runs all show a loop so i am feeling more like that will probly happen. lol remebr if it happens i called it hours ago
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1106. willdd1979
8:38 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
japan ok their money is a gift but all the money, time, effort, jobs, and man power we put into Iraq the money they gave the u.s. is probally if not all then most of the money the u.s. put into Iraq they are just recycling currency.
1105. StormJunkie
8:37 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Alright I geuss I'll give them a pass Lefty.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1104. leftyy420
8:37 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
no thjey will but i doubt we will see amajor shifty in forcast track based on one set of model runs. they will wait for atleast one more run beofr making any major changes
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1103. StormJunkie
8:37 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
You're right Chub. I remember that . Where are you Chub?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
1102. leftyy420
8:36 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
the cirulation is still detached but at a diff level. shows she is orginising.

also japan just got smaled with a typhoon today leave them alone lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
1101. creekchub00
8:36 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
They did last year with Jeanne....unless that was meant sarcastically...sorry it's late and I am tired...
1100. StormJunkie
8:35 AM GMT on September 07, 2005
Don;t have those details wild. I think we should just take the 100 million from Iraq.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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