Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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2062. CybrTeddy
6:05 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I see Jeff has noticed the models, he thinks there
might be a Tropical Cyclone even.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
2061. HurakanPR
5:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I will be depresed is this wave does not develop. I love action in the tropics, and to follow and to read all the different opinions of the bloggers here. Nature will follow its course, and storms will form, for good or for bad,I've have lived through them, lost lives of love ones, property, etc. But still get passionate and overwhelmed before the magesty and power of nature !!!!!!
2059. IKE
5:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2058. Drakoen
5:33 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The 12z NOGAPS model is showing development with the wave as well.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2057. IpswichWeatherCenter
5:32 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2055.

it also shows 96E hitting California as a strong ts/weak hurricane
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
2056. Drakoen
5:32 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2053. Weather456 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now.

RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED
EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs
NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution


Yea it updates fairly well and the detail is great. Especially on the VIS and IR imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2055. TheWeatherMan504
5:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2054. IKE 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
12Z CMC.....

Islands Threatened???


That might be the case.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2054. IKE
5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
12Z CMC.....

Islands Threatened???
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2053. Cavin Rawlins
5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now.

RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED
EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs
NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2052. presslord
5:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 12:40 PM EDT on June 30, 2008

I s'pose this explains what happened to my grand oak.....

... National Weather Service confirms an EF-0 tornado on Johns
Island Sunday afternoon...

The National Weather Service has completed a damage survey in the
Johns Island area of Charleston County and has determined that an
EF-0 tornado occurred around 335 PM EDT Sunday afternoon. The
tornado initially touched down just west of Chisolm Road very near
angle Oak Elementary School. The tornado moved quickly east and
crossed Chisolm Road and portions of Point Park Road before
lifting just behind Saint Johns High School near Church Point
Lane. Track length was approximately one half mile and the Max
width was around two tenths of a mile.

The tornado damaged trees as well as some small structures in the
area. Portions of the fence surrounding the Saint Johns High
School stadium were also destroyed.

Strength... ... EF-0
peak winds... . 60-70 mph
Max width... .. 0.2 mile
track length.. 0.5 mile
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
2051. NEwxguy
5:25 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2024. jphurricane2006 5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
hey now dont be hatin on Christina lol, its Britney you would have to worry about, probably would be doing loop de loops by now lol

It would probably become a naked swirl
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
2050. Drakoen
5:24 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2047. Weather456 5:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I just looked the visible animation of the wave over Africa, now I fully believe is this wave nearest the coast. It has an excellent low-level spin, maybe even at surface based on a west-wind observation to the south of the wave.

And where are some ppl sayin the wave will exit below 10N. The spin along the wave looks to be at 10N.


I agree. The circulation was note from yesterday. I like the large Java animations from that site. I think it's somewhat better than RAMSDIS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2049. Drakoen
5:22 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2045. 69Viking 5:19 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2034. Drakoen

Without Satellites back in the day how can one be sure?


Just using the record lol. Don't ask me ask the climatology.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2048. kmanislander
5:22 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Out for now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2047. Cavin Rawlins
5:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I just looked the visible animation of the wave over Africa, now I fully believe is this wave nearest the coast. It has an excellent low-level spin, maybe even at surface based on a west-wind observation to the south of the wave.

And why are some ppl sayin the wave will exit below 10N. The spin along the wave looks to be at 10N.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2046. kmanislander
5:19 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
456

The Leewards and Windwards have been very fortunate for many years. Sadly, that will not last. Contrast the position for the Caymans. For years we watched the Eastern Caribbean being hammered by storm after storm and we hardly had even a close call.

Prior to Ivan, our last big strike was in 1932. Since 2004 we have had very close calls every year. Dean could have easily have been a repeat of Ivan for us last year.

My point ? : There has been a shift from the Eastern Caribbean to the Central and Western Caribbean being at greatest risk over the past decade. Eventually the pattern will switch again , we just don't know when.

The biggest determining factor is the steering.You guys got hit when storms came up to the WNW and NW around the western periphery of a ridge that terminated just N of PR or the DR. It remains to be seen what the set up will be this year.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2045. 69Viking
5:19 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2034. Drakoen

Without Satellites back in the day how can one be sure?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2044. Drakoen
5:18 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2042. stormlvr 5:14 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2011. Drakoen 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
What's interesting is the steering currents of the long range GFS. The scenario is almost like with August-September of 2004 with the storm getting pulled to the north then getting sent back to the west.

Hey Drakoen, It does look some what similar doesn't it. Not sure I'm buying the poleward shift the GFS initiates at about 40W. Fits in with an error I see with it to often. The UKMET forecast points look better. Appears to be a narrow sliver of predominately favorable conditions but would have to remain further south closer to the UKMET positions. All we need is a LLC over water now:)



200mb anticyclone vertically stacked with the surface center over warm waters. It won't matter where it goes although it might have to deal with a little TUTT action if it took that northerly fix. The ECMWF 12z run has a similar track to this GFS 12z run with the ECMWF being a bit further to the north. It will be depend on the strength of the system which both ECMWF and GFS show at least a good tropical storm. It is still a ways out lol. We don't even have the GFDL or HWRF models on this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2043. TheWeatherMan504
5:15 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2037. jphurricane2006 5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
lol 456, but with a storm named Britney it would be appropriate to use the term "winding down" lol

or well spiraling down lol



hahahhahahahaha LOL
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
2042. stormlvr
5:14 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2011. Drakoen 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
What's interesting is the steering currents of the long range GFS. The scenario is almost like with August-September of 2004 with the storm getting pulled to the north then getting sent back to the west.

Hey Drakoen, It does look some what similar doesn't it. Not sure I'm buying the poleward shift the GFS initiates at about 40W. Fits in with an error I see with it to often. The UKMET forecast points look better. Appears to be a narrow sliver of predominately favorable conditions but would have to remain further south closer to the UKMET positions. All we need is a LLC over water now:)
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
2041. Drakoen
5:14 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2038. DestinJeff 5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
that would be great if hurricane brittany got 'sheared', or had an exposed center


No clothes...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2040. Drakoen
5:13 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2029. IKE 5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2017. jphurricane2006 12:05 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
good predictions kman lol

could happen, notice that no one on here said it would form, we just dont like the close-mindedness of some

Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.


LOL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2039. 69Viking
5:12 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Well answered one of my own questions.

First Weather Satellite - Link
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2036. Cavin Rawlins
5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.

lol lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2035. OUSHAWN
5:11 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I just looked at a closeup of the latest visible of the blob in the BOC and there does appear to be a circulation over the water. There is definite shear out there but I swear I see a spin.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
2034. Drakoen
5:10 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
If this storm develops it would be a true Cape Verde system and would also be the earliest eastern storm to form. Here's the climatology:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2033. Cavin Rawlins
5:10 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2024. jphurricane2006 1:06 PM AST on June 30, 2008
hey now dont be hatin on Christina lol, its Britney you would have to worry about, probably would be doing loop de loops by now lol


lol...a hurricane name britney would rocket the air ways.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2030. kmanislander
5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2007 also had the strong high. That's what kept Dean and Felix on a due West course all the way.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2029. IKE
5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2017. jphurricane2006 12:05 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
good predictions kman lol

could happen, notice that no one on here said it would form, we just dont like the close-mindedness of some


Like eye? He's still working and won't be able to post until his shift at KFC ends.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2028. Cavin Rawlins
5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2010. kmanislander 1:02 PM AST on June 30, 2008

It would be a good thing cuz I dont like the track. The Leewards have developed and populated alot due the lack of 10 years of hurricane activity. It would be blow to our tourism and agriculture industry if this occurs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2027. Drakoen
5:08 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2023. IKE 5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
As consistent as the GFS has been on the African queen...I'll be surprised if it doesn't develop and put the GFS in the trash-can with the CMC if it doesn't.


LOL. Way to put the pressure on the GFS to keep it's credibility.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2026. 69Viking
5:07 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Just 11 storms have ever formed in that area of the Atlantic between July 1 and July 15 in the last 150 years, Carper said.

How long have we had satellites? How can they reliably say anything about the central Atlantic that many years back?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
2025. RasBongo
5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2011.Drak

Looks like we will get another Ivan soon
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
2023. IKE
5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
As consistent as the GFS has been on the African queen...I'll be surprised if it doesn't develop and put the GFS in the trash-can with the CMC if it doesn't.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2022. kmanislander
5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I agree JP-- always keep an open mind. It tends to reduce the amount of crow that one consumes over the length of the season !!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2021. Drakoen
5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2016. kmanislander 5:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Drak

That steering is the strong ridge all the way to Fla that we have seen to persist since April of this year. Eerily similar to 2004


Yep. This year might just be a handful...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2020. 786
5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I don't think it can be a fish storm the way the highs are forecast to be set up
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
2018. Cavin Rawlins
5:05 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
This is whats left of Tropical Storm Christina Aguilera, bears an odd resemblence to a skeleton.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2016. kmanislander
5:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Drak

That steering is the strong ridge all the way to Fla that we have seen to persist since April of this year. Eerily similar to 2004
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2015. IKE
5:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2010. kmanislander 12:02 PM CDT on June 30, 2008
If this wave comes off and does not develop there will be a depression on this blog. That is my forecast

LOL


That's true....lol..

OR...watch it develop and never come within 300 miles of any land mass.......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2014. 786
5:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Kmanislander. LOL that is a great prediction
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
2013. Drakoen
5:03 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2010. kmanislander 5:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
If this wave comes off and does not develop there will be a depression on this blog. That is my forecast

LOL


LOL. The models will be depressed too since they all unanimously decided to develop this African monsoon gyre.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
2012. 69Viking
5:03 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1985. jphurricane2006

LMAO!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.