Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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Categories: Flood

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2051. NEwxguy 5:25 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2024. jphurricane2006 5:06 PM GMT on June 30, 2008 hey now dont be hatin on Christina lol, its Britney you would have to worry about, probably would be doing loop de loops by now lol It would probably become a naked swirl Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069

2052. presslord 5:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Public Information Statement Statement as of 12:40 PM EDT on June 30, 2008 I s'pose this explains what happened to my grand oak..... ... National Weather Service confirms an EF-0 tornado on Johns Island Sunday afternoon... The National Weather Service has completed a damage survey in the Johns Island area of Charleston County and has determined that an EF-0 tornado occurred around 335 PM EDT Sunday afternoon. The tornado initially touched down just west of Chisolm Road very near angle Oak Elementary School. The tornado moved quickly east and crossed Chisolm Road and portions of Point Park Road before lifting just behind Saint Johns High School near Church Point Lane. Track length was approximately one half mile and the Max width was around two tenths of a mile. The tornado damaged trees as well as some small structures in the area. Portions of the fence surrounding the Saint Johns High School stadium were also destroyed. Strength... ... EF-0 peak winds... . 60-70 mph Max width... .. 0.2 mile track length.. 0.5 mile Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

2053. Cavin Rawlins 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008 It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now. RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2054. IKE 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
12Z CMC..... Islands Threatened??? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2055. TheWeatherMan504 5:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2054. IKE 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008 12Z CMC..... Islands Threatened??? That might be the case. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

2056. Drakoen 5:32 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2053. Weather456 5:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008 2050. Drakoen 1:24 PM AST on June 30, 2008 It is much much better. But still isnt as popular as it should be. Its the best out there right now. RAMSDIS - RESTRICTED EMUSAT - Updates every 3 hrs NOAA - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution CIMSS - updates every 6 hrs and has poor resolution Yea it updates fairly well and the detail is great. Especially on the VIS and IR imagery. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2057. IpswichWeatherCenter 5:32 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2055. it also shows 96E hitting California as a strong ts/weak hurricane Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097

2058. Drakoen 5:33 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The 12z NOGAPS model is showing development with the wave as well. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2059. IKE 5:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
NEW BLOG! Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2061. HurakanPR 5:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I will be depresed is this wave does not develop. I love action in the tropics, and to follow and to read all the different opinions of the bloggers here. Nature will follow its course, and storms will form, for good or for bad,I've have lived through them, lost lives of love ones, property, etc. But still get passionate and overwhelmed before the magesty and power of nature !!!!!!

2062. CybrTeddy 6:05 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I see Jeff has noticed the models, he thinks there might be a Tropical Cyclone even. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

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