Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1662. BajaALemt
11:41 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Bet it goes up again before the holiday weekend :|
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1661. IKE
6:40 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Oh...it went down 2 cents a gallon....you know it's gonna go back up with a barrel of crude oil near $142.
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1659. BajaALemt
11:36 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
You guys' didn't go down? Ours went down a whole 5 cents here
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1658. IKE
6:36 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1655. TheWeatherMan504 6:35 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Ike if that happened i would go down to the store a get a couple of beers. Do you think that might be a small preview for later.


Could be...then again, it may not be....I just have a feeling the US may be in paths way in 2008...I could be wrong......the last 2 years have been slow for the US....3 in a row is hard to believe......
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1657. IKE
6:34 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I got it...first there were wind gusts near 40(maybe slightly higher), and then rain........I've had rain here everyday the last 4 or 5 days...it's suppose to dry out after today until the end of the week....
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1656. TheWeatherMan504
11:35 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Im sorry to leave so abruptly but i have to make some graphics and type some things up for TWC. Ill be back in an hour or 2.
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1655. TheWeatherMan504
11:32 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Ike if that happened i would go down to the store a get a couple of beers. Do you think that might be a small preview for later.
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1653. BajaALemt
11:32 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
LOL, Ike. I thought about you watching that warned storm when it was over by Crestview (It SUCKS watching that stuff when EVX is down..power supply died). I said to myself... Self? Ike's next! lol
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1652. IKE
6:29 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I had 2 thunderstorms move through here yesterday...one around noon...the other around 3-3:30pm....the 2nd one had winds near 40 mph with it and blew small branches down over my freshly mowed yard...I had it looking so good......
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1651. TheWeatherMan504
11:29 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1650. IKE 11:28 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1646. TheWeatherMan504 6:22 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Yep IKE the glue is coming together this isnt gonna be good i can feel it in my gut.

Yeah...me too...I was just telling my wife as I was getting another cup of coffee...I wish I had a crystal ball and could look forward about 3 months....

I've got a bad feeling about gas prices....


The closest thing that u can use is a MAGIC 8 BALL and ask it what will happen. LOL!


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1650. IKE
6:26 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1646. TheWeatherMan504 6:22 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Yep IKE the glue is coming together this isnt gonna be good i can feel it in my gut.


Yeah...me too...I was just telling my wife as I was getting another cup of coffee...I wish I had a crystal ball and could look forward about 3 months....

I've got a bad feeling about gas prices....
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1649. BajaALemt
11:22 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
I like the way you put it, Beell. Watch the model and look at what actually happens. Watch them long enough, you learn their quirks..and learn to take the quirks into consideration while watching. Watching the models (at least to me) is almost as interesting as watching when something DOES devlop (tropical OR severe)
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1648. StormHype
11:20 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
$8 billion in crop damage huh? Should't be a problem at all with the ludicrous $300+ billion farm subsidy package congress passed in spring to send welfare checks to all farmers who make less than $750K per year in profits. The only one who will get the shaft is the consumer and the american tax payer.
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1647. BajaALemt
11:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Scary thought, Ike
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1646. TheWeatherMan504
11:20 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Yep IKE the glue is coming together this isnt gonna be good i can feel it in my gut.
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1645. IKE
6:17 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Good bet...the Atlantic season is fixing to ramp up.........
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1644. IKE
6:16 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Get ready 504...........

This place will be rockin soon.....within a few days........

Lord knows what will happen w/gas prices this summer and fall.........
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1642. TheWeatherMan504
11:12 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1640. IKE 11:11 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
$5 a gallon....$6 a gallon....$10 a gallon...I can start riding a bike again....I need the exercise anyway.....


O boy i dont even wanna hear it. LOL



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1641. TheWeatherMan504
11:05 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
According to the 06z GFS................

Bertha-7/5/08
Cristobal-7/7/08
Dolly-7/15/08
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1640. IKE
6:10 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
$5 a gallon....$6 a gallon....$10 a gallon...I can start riding a bike again....I need the exercise anyway.....
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1639. sporteguy03
11:02 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Link

Like Oh My God Ike the GFS has a system hitting Florida, in 384 hours, I just raised gas prices for everyone, lol :)

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1638. IKE
6:02 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1637. TheWeatherMan504 6:00 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I saw that too acording to the GFS the gulf system originates from a dieing funnel boundry and develops it hits NOLA and then brings much needed rain to the drought stricken areas of Georgia, Alabama, and florida.


Oh lord...stormkat will be on here...I wouldn't bet against that happening...the GFS has been hinting at it on the past few runs......
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1637. TheWeatherMan504
10:57 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
I saw that too acording to the GFS the gulf system originates from a dieing funnel boundry and develops it hits NOLA and then brings much needed rain to the drought stricken areas of Georgia, Alabama, and florida.
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1636. IKE
5:55 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Your welcome beell...........
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1635. beell
10:49 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Thanks for the posts IKE. What else we gonna talk about? I always try to keep up with what they are showing vs what we're seeing. How else can you determine if they are correct?

I call it "Watching the tropics".

A good morning and day to all.
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1634. IKE
5:45 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1631. leftovers 5:30 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
You all are model crazy. Read the climatology map for July. Very rare for anything to develop way out and rare for in close but not so rare in the last wk of July in close to the windwards. Point Im making? Have a nice wk.


It is what it is leftovers...I'm just putting them on here...I'm not saying I agree with them.

Oh yeah....what's that in the western GOM in about 6 days on the 06Z GFS...comparable with the latest CMC....is it Bertha??????

Link
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1633. BajaALemt
10:34 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Mornin folks.

"RARELY DO COLD FRONTS MAKE IT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND RARER STILL...DO THEY ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH OUR CWA BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS." ...today's discussion from Tallahassee.

So, I suppose it's safe to say that the weather doesn't always 'conform' to climatology and rare things DO occasionally happen. *shrugs* (Not that I'm saying something WILL develop...only that it is possible"

*gets off 'Devil's Advocate stump*
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1630. IKE
5:21 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
00Z UKMET....

Link
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1629. ShenValleyFlyFish
6:15 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
Good Morning All you guys and galls in WUland.

Looks to be a grand day in the Blue Ridge foothills. 79F hi, 30% humidity. Welcome relief been like living in sauna last little while. And I don't work today. Nani Nani Boo Boo. ;^)
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1628. IKE
5:19 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
00Z NOGAPS shows it....

Link
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1627. IKE
5:18 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Like I didn't know that aroughleague172.
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1626. aroughleague172
10:10 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
That's because it Can't Model Crap...it should NOT be taken seriously, due to its liberalness in 2006 and 2007. But still, it is a worry since the GFS and such agree with the African wave.


By the way I just did some research and found out the invest number "99" has held some good cards throughout the years...Katrina and Rita were both "99 Invest" in their invest stage and so was Chris, Florence of 2006, when they added the "L" to the "99L Invest" number. Also the overhyped wave of last early August 2007 was 99L Invest...and Gabby if I can remember correctly. Gabby was weak though.
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1625. IKE
5:02 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
00Z CMC....has 2 Atlantic systems and one near SE TX on it's latest run........

Link
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1624. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:41 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOURTEEN
9:00 AM UTC June 29 2008
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Boris (992 hPa) located near 14.9N 119.4W or 721 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
12 HRS: 15.0N 120.8W - 65 knots (SSHS 1 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.8N 120.9W - 60 knots (Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7N 125.1W - 50 knots (Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.5N 126.5W - 40 knots (Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
1623. JLPR
6:09 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Thought the system seems very week during the majority of the trek
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1622. JLPR
6:08 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
looks like the latest GFS takes this system in a Georges like path across the islands and making landfall in the Gulf Coast
Link
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1621. Drakoen
6:05 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
The CMC, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET 00z runs all feature some development with the wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1620. JLPR
5:31 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
but yeah if it keeps its low and builds convection once it reaches water we could see something
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1619. Stormchaser2007
5:30 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Yeah lol
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1618. JLPR
5:26 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
lol Stormchaser =P
I loved the description of the area behind the wave =D
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1617. Stormchaser2007
5:24 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
<>img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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1616. thelmores
4:37 AM GMT on June 30, 2008



Convection firing near circ center..... will be interesting to watch over the next couple days.........
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1615. JRRP
4:41 AM GMT on Junio 30, 2008

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1614. JLPR
4:44 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Looks like Boris is killing Cristina =P
Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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