Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1812. Weather456
10:55 AM AST on June 30, 2008
U guys realize, those QS passess havnt updated since Friday.
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1811. Patrap
9:58 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Or should we go by EyewaLL Hour's experienced?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1810. IKE
9:58 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1805. TheWeatherMan504 9:57 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Ike if the 12z run develops 3 systems again we better watch out.


Yup...I'll go out on a limb...it develops at least one in the Atlantic and develops something in the western GOM........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1809. Patrap
9:57 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Whos the eldest on the list,and who is the rookiest?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1806. IKE
9:57 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1803. jphurricane2006 9:56 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
glad you arent counting IKE lol

um I dont think Jeff is a troll, thought that was quite funny lol


DestinJeff ain't no troll....he's a neighbor about 35 miles to my SSW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1805. TheWeatherMan504
2:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Ike if the 12z run develops 3 systems again we better watch out.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1804. TampaSpin
10:54 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1793. DestinJeff 10:52 AM EDT on June 30, 2008

IM honored.....i think........LMAO...good list of alot of complainers.........lol
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1802. IKE
9:55 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
T-Minus 34 minutes until the 12Z GFS starts running...lol.........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1800. aroughleague172
2:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TayTay dude...water, as long as it's not under 80 degrees, is not enough to WEAKEN a storm. It just means it won't help strengthen a storm rapidly like a Dean.

Same with TCHP. Low TCHP can't weaken an already-developed storm...but it usually holds development to slow motion.
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1799. Drakoen
2:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1793. DestinJeff 2:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2008 Tropical Weather Blog, starring:

Dr Jeff Masters, as Himself
Drakoen, as GFS analyist
Patrap, as Preparation Coordinator
TampaSpin, as Gulf Development Forecaster
Ike, as Somewhat Inland Voice of Reason
Kmanislander, as Legitimately Worried Resident
JFV, as Inquisitive New Father
themorles(?), as Arrow Drawing Specialist
CCHSWeatherman, as StormW Protege
StormW, as StormW
STORMTOP, as STROMTOP, STORMTIP, etc...


just some lightheartedness fellas.... add more if you can think of any.

We have a couple of days yet until the BS has to take a back burner.



lol. I'd like to be known for more than just that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1798. Patrap
9:52 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Were about to interview Patrap as soon as he gets away from the Keyboard in the Sat Truck here...

Back to you in the studio Christina..







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1797. IKE
9:54 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Ike, as Somewhat Inland Voice of Reason

I was just in Freeport,FL....it was tropical rains...thunderstorms.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1796. TayTay
2:54 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
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1794. ajcamsmom2
9:48 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
All I know is...when the tropics are this calm, I have a tendency not to check them as much...bad thing...these storms can pull together...something can form whenever and wherever it wants...the weather patterns appear to me to be changing and with change come new rules...time will tell what wisdom won't...just look at Hurricane Humberto...it went against the odds...could have been a lot worse...but, should not have been so bad either
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1792. peterj
2:48 PM GMT on Junio 30, 2008
Hello everyone, I usually dont post much due to the fact that I really do not know much about storms. I do come on here alot and read what you guys post. Anyways, I have noticed that so far we have had alot of waves push off the African coast. Is is too early in the season to have all those waves coming off? Is that a sign that we will have a very active season once we hit the peak of it?
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1791. TayTay
2:38 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Heat content is different over the water.
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1790. stoormfury
2:39 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
456 you said that the system will trck wet/westnorth west and possibly threatened the islands---devaju-donna in 1960
Link
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1788. TampaSpin
10:44 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
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1787. Patrap
9:49 AM CDT on June 30, 2008

One has to consider the weather downstream in time across the CONUS.
As it is usually that,,that will determine recurvature or a door into the Land masses.

As the tropics are the genesis fields,Landfall and steering is driven from above,..not by the surface.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1786. aroughleague172
2:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
BUT as long as the SST's are at least 80 degrees it can become a tropical storm...which they are.
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1785. TheWeatherMan504
2:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1783. lol
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1784. TheWeatherMan504
2:39 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
if it gets strong enough it can develop an anti cyclone and it can resist some of the shear by the time it gets there if the shear has not realaxed yet.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1783. Patrap
9:43 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Coulda,woulda,shoulda..
Just like dem African Waves in June.

LOL.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1782. nola70119
2:43 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Obviously we are in a lull....the question is where and when that lull will end, as it ultimately will. But right now there isn't anything that looks too credible....
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1781. Weather456
10:41 AM AST on June 30, 2008
1777, I'm all for the pictures and jokes but cudnt u post something more pleasing to the eyes.
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1780. catastropheadjuster
2:30 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The best thing is to be prepared. And don't wait to the last minute. Don't be caught with your britches down. It's hard sometimes because like us we own a boat repair shop on the creek and when you call customers to come get there boat when one might be coming your way they don't want to come get there boats, well when Katrina came through we had about 3 men just say it's ok we will just get them later, I called them and let them know we was not responsible for what might happen to them. Well needless to say 2 came got them and the one that didn't well he don't have a jet ski no more. There wasn't nothing we could do.
Always be prepared.
Sheri
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1779. TampaSpin
10:38 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1776. aroughleague172 10:37 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
umm....now why would it weaken over water? the dry air doesn't affect already-developed storms as much...the shear doesn't get unfavorable until the caribbean.


It appears there is slightly cooler waters off the coast of Africa about 400 miles out then they warm up again.
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1778. Stormchaser2007
2:39 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1778.Hmm I just looked at the GFS shear and your right....ill make some changes.
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1777. Patrap
9:39 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I smell Wish and Fish.

LSU ESL site Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1776. aroughleague172
2:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
umm....now why would it weaken over water? the dry air doesn't affect already-developed storms as much...the shear doesn't get unfavorable until the caribbean.
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1775. Weather456
10:35 AM AST on June 30, 2008
Drak, I knew it was the right wave, I had my bearings mixed up, but when I saw the other wave (along 1W) couldnt help but notice.
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1774. TampaSpin
10:35 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
Just looking at visible loop in the GOM there seems to be alot less shear this morning......so that area could start heating up....
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1773. Patrap
9:35 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
WAVEtrak Link


Im confused..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1772. Drakoen
2:34 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1771. Weather456 2:33 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I cant help but notice the models maybe instializing the wrong wave but we'll have to wait and see.


I think they are initializing the right wave. You thought it was the wave behind it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
1771. Weather456
10:29 AM AST on June 30, 2008
I cant help but notice the models maybe instializing the wrong wave but we'll have to wait and see.
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1770. Stormchaser2007
2:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I only think its gonna reach TS status south of the Verdes. Then after that it should weaken considerably.
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1769. TampaSpin
10:28 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
Jp theres a flare up in the BOC does that count.....lol
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1768. TheWeatherMan504
2:29 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1763. StormChaser2007, dont you think that might be an over exagerated statment.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1767. philliesrock
10:30 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1762. I don't know, it's too far out. If I had to guess, I would a moderate tropical storm.
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1766. aroughleague172
2:28 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
but JP...do you consider an African wave that has yet to leave the coast and will be entering a long patch of *very high shear* 10 knots and has tons of models support posting all this about it to be overanalyzing?
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1765. TheWeatherMan504
2:27 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
the next 2 weeks might be intresting.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
1763. Stormchaser2007
2:17 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Had to Break out the crayons on this one!!

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1762. aroughleague172
2:26 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1761. philliesrock


Strengthens...into what?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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