Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1912. Patrap
11:02 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I see now...yup,most never heard of a Levee till o5,...LOL

But they sure have the last 3 weeks upriver.
I've gotten numerous wu-mails from folks saying you were right Pat,calamity knows no Borders,and anything constructed by Man,be it bridge ,or Levee's,can be taken out by Nature,.In a day or less.

ANd those who are dealing with FEMA and Insurance companies,have my sympathies big time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1911. Drakoen
4:04 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1910. Drakoen
4:02 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
GFS 12z is still on for development. Slightly more aggressive on this run than the previous runs.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
1909. txalwaysprepared
4:01 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Patrap.. I am referring to the ones who come on here with the posts of Nola is doomed.

Like I said, I have family there.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1908. Patrap
11:01 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link

Oil is Up 50% since the Begiining of 08.
Dont think the Hurricane season last 2 years had anything to do with that.
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1907. TampaSpin
12:01 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
Gotta go BBL...peace and stay civil...
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1906. TheWeatherMan504
3:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Mexico Radar where gulf storms are.

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1905. txalwaysprepared
3:58 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
OK Viking THANKS. So if I am reading it right the pressure is still rising but not as much as a bit ago?
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1904. TampaSpin
11:58 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1898. Patrap 11:58 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model (using Wave Watch III) Link


Nice loop Pat.....that was exactly what i posted..don't see it heading North currently .....but it could change.
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1903. 786
3:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED FROM 6N-11N
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 44W-46W.

What do you think of this wave..anyone?
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1902. 69Viking
10:52 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1891. TampaSpin

Safe for now with the pressure high and rising! I'm out of town next week so I don't want anything to threaten our area with my wife home with the kids. Neighbors will help if they have to but I always prefer to be there to take care of my own stuff.
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1901. Patrap
10:58 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
nola people?

Americans are Americans in my book.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1900. TheWeatherMan504
3:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
the last thing i need is a hurricane to hit NOLA for 2 reasons.

1. I dont need $7/gallon gas.

2. I dont want my parents to live with me again because they are a pain in the u know what.
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1899. txalwaysprepared
3:55 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1892. Patrap.

LOL NO NO... I'm not one of those NOLA people.
I do have tons of family in BR and NOLA... but please.. don't lump me with the doom and gloom nolacasters!! :)
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1898. Patrap
10:56 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model (using Wave Watch III) Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1897. Nolehead
3:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
well, here we go again down in the BOC..looks like there might be something brewing again..
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1896. Patrap
10:51 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
From the LSU WAVCIS lab one can access the Buoys,GOM WAV Models and the current and forecasted SST's and Loop current flow rate too.Link

Also a Plus,the Tropical Weather on that page is the wundergrounds Tropical PAge
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1895. 69Viking
10:47 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1881. TampaSpin

Watching it closely, if the pressure starts dropping then I'll show some concern. For now just watching.
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1894. pearlandaggie
3:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1883. i wasn't talking about interpreting the data...i was more talking about how the colors seem to be poorly chosen such that the data demarcation seems to get lost in the busy nature of the graphic. they have shear values that range from blue to white on the colored scale, then have the increasing and decreasing lines in blue and white!
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1893. Drakoen
3:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The cyclonic gyre is currently over central Guinea on the border between the Sierra Leone and Guinea. Excellent cyclonic signature is noted along the wave axis.
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1892. Patrap
10:50 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
OKay..some had TD-10 ready to overtopp us here last year.LOL
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1891. TampaSpin
11:48 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1882. txalwaysprepared 11:47 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
Viking... gotcha.. lol what am I looking for :)


Want to watch pressure falling and at least get to 1010mb and falling.

Conditions at 42055 as of
(9:50 am CDT)
1450 GMT on 06/30/2008: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 9.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.0 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 90 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1016.4 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.4 mb ( Rising )
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1890. saintsfan06
10:48 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Tampaspin - not liking that GFS model 6 days out. Good thing 6 days is a long time away!!
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1889. kmanislander
3:39 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Noted JP. The mention of a TUTT was purely for illustrative purposes. It was not intended to be a reference to a current weather feature.
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1888. TheWeatherMan504
3:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
yea i smell it too he is over due for a new blog.
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1887. txalwaysprepared
3:48 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1878. Patrap

I was talking about the posted model. LOL no, I'm not saying there is any threat anywhere.
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1886. pearlandaggie
3:48 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TCHP continues to fall...
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1885. 786
3:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Hey!

Looks like we'll have an interesting week. A few questions: when is the possible 92L emerging off the coast of Africa and when would it likely be declared 92L? what do you think about the other tropical waves we have between the Caribbean and the CATL at present?
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1882. txalwaysprepared
3:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Viking... gotcha.. lol what am I looking for :)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1881. TampaSpin
11:43 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1875. 69Viking 11:43 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1861. txalwaysprepared

Just keep an on this Buoy, Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche Link


Great advice that is exactly what i was doing also......nothing happening YET.
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1880. Patrap
10:44 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
I smell a New Blog ,fresh out the Doc's oven soon.
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1879. pearlandaggie
3:42 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1874. yeah, you're right...i was looking at the area north of 20N. my bad...am i the only one that finds that graphic difficult to read at times? (not that that was the case here...i just screwed up)
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1878. Patrap
10:44 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
nola?..theres no threat at present.
Nor are any forecasted.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1877. TheWeatherMan504
3:42 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Indeed patrap
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1876. TampaSpin
11:40 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1868. txalwaysprepared 11:37 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
TS... that's better, for me, than a previous model I saw with the Texas landfall. That's not good for nola tho.


Stearing maps do not suggest currently a NOLA direction......but, we have to see IF anything develops...Shear is still alittle high yet but, conditions do appear to be getting better.
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1875. 69Viking
10:37 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1861. txalwaysprepared

Just keep an on this Buoy, Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche Link
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1873. Drakoen
3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The TUTT is schedule to move slowly to the north and east and be replaced by an upper level ridge over the TRPL ATL. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge coming in from the Subtropical Atlantic pushing back an upper level low centered near 28N 43W.
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1872. pearlandaggie
3:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
shear is high and tending toward increasing in the CAtl...
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1871. Patrap
10:39 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Look to the past to see the present they say.

A GOM scenario is always the one to watch early.
Like this week 3 years ago.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
1870. txalwaysprepared
3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I do live in a high evac zone. But what I love is that they FINALLY require builders to cut, label and supply all the plywood and locks for new construction. We moved exactly 1 year ago. So happy that was already done for us :)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1868. txalwaysprepared
3:36 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TS... that's better, for me, than a previous model I saw with the Texas landfall. That's not good for nola tho.
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1867. pearlandaggie
3:28 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
SAL letting up....


dry air is mixing out...
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1866. kmanislander
3:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Surface low at 30W

Link
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1865. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2008 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:18:07 N Lon : 130:56:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 1.9 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -6.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

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1864. TampaSpin
11:33 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
1861. txalwaysprepared 11:31 AM EDT on June 30, 2008
TS stop trying to freak me out ;)

This is the GFS model 6 days out....just putting some things together....
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1863. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2008 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:50:45 N Lon : 120:31:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 989.8mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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1862. Michfan
10:30 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
Good morning everyone.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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