Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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312. IKE
8:00 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Looks like the wave lost a little bit of its convection but notice that there's another wave coming off Africa.

That's 2 hours old...check the time...1815.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
311. Patrap
7:59 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Burrowing muskrat causes levee to fail in Missouri

By JIM SALTER 3 hours ago Link

WINFIELD, Mo. (AP) A heroic effort by hundreds of townspeople, volunteers and National Guardsmen to hold back the Mississippi River failed Friday undone by a burrowing muskrat.

The furry rodent dug a hole through the earthen levee in this eastern Missouri community, allowing water to penetrate the floodwall, which failed shortly before dawn.

"It's so disappointing," said Linda Wilmesherr as she peered through binoculars at water pouring through a gap that appeared to be 30 feet wide. "With all the guns in this county, couldn't we kill a muskrat?"

But within hours, defiant residents were mounting a new defense a quickly constructed 4-foot-tall sandbag levee to protect 100 homes in the floodwaters' path.

"We're not quitting , the Army doesn't quit," said National Guard Col. Michele Melton. "That's why we're here to try and save these people."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
310. Drakoen
12:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It appears the wave the GFS is developing is just west of 20W over Central Africa. This is based on the GFS 700mb winds and potential vorticity tracking.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
309. tropicfreak
8:53 PM EDT on June 27, 2008



Looks like the wave lost a little bit of its convection but notice that there's another wave coming off Africa.
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308. TampaSpin
8:55 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Wow the CAtla wave sure looks healthy.....im surprised its not at least an invest...wow
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307. Patrap
7:54 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Atlantic IR Pic Link

GOM IR pic Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
306. TampaSpin
8:51 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Good evening everyone.....any models showing anything in the GOM yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
305. Patrap
7:51 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
I reckon we may see something Spin Up soon Lads..

best prepare now while we ave da chance.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
304. IKE
7:48 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
I wouldn't be shocked if the wave in the eastern Atlantic is declared an invest.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
303. 7544
12:43 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
its good to see most are agreeing that this catl wave could become 921 soon as 12 hours

with the need more convection post that could happen at dmax tonight as it looked like very good at 2am last night .

but like weatherfan posted what happens when it reaches the westerlies sheer . is the sheer scedule to let up soon as the wave approces the islands . that wil be the only factor to get this wave going . thanks

wow stromchaser i guess thats what we can call looking at the big picture hahaha
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302. Stormchaser2007
12:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
301. Tazmanian
5:42 PM PDT on June 27, 2008
28/0000 UTC 13.9N 122.5W T2.0/2.5 03W -- East Pacific Ocean


03W is back from the dead
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300. tropicfreak
8:43 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I agree wanabe.
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299. Patrap
7:43 PM CDT on June 27, 2008

Glossary of NHC Terms Link



Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128347
298. IKE
7:42 PM CDT on June 27, 2008

291. JFV 7:36 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
finally, an indirect reference to the wave by the NHC folks, right IKE?


They mentioned it earlier today.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
297. weathermanwannabe
8:32 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
That CATL wave does look impressive, but, it needs more convection in the Southern quadrant and the "closed" low before it would reach TD status.......Moisture does not appear to be a problem at all (it's been creating its own moist enviornment for the past 12 hours)....Seems to me that it will boil down to persistent convection and favorable shear (in the next 12-18 hours) if it were to beat the odds (climatology) and form into a TD...Let's see if the convection holds together into tommorow morning (and the AM quickscat pass for the low), then, look at the shear tendancies in it's path over the next 24 hours....It still has a long way to go to the Antilles intact......
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296. Drakoen
12:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The GFDL takes Boris to hurricane strength but HWRF think its will weaken eventually back down to a tropical depression.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
295. TheWeatherMan504
12:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2008

293. JFV 12:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm glad to see that they aren't entirely oblivious to it, right folks?



Yes indeed.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
294. tropicfreak
8:37 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I wouldn't be surprised if it was declared an invest over the next 2-10 hours.
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292. tropicfreak
8:29 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
The wave has survived a day or so over water. Shear is low and the SST's are very warm. There's also a rotation and a surface circulation. It looks very well like a TD
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290. IKE
7:34 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
HurakanPR...according to the San Juan discussion, that wave should be approaching by Tuesday.....

"...... Then on Tuesday...a tropical wave is expected
to approach the local area to increase cloud coverage and the
probabilities for showers and thunderstorms across both land and
coastal areas."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
289. HurakanPR
7:56 PM AST on June 27, 2008
My conclusion for the NHC, always been so cautios in mentioning a System, is that they don't want to alarm, the public. Nevertheless our local weather service here,is been following the system all day.
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288. IKE
7:28 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
A tropical wave along 37w S of 12n is moving W at 15-20 kt. A
broad mid to low level circulation is noted on infrared
satellite imagery and widespread deep convection can be found E
of the wave in the region within 11n34w to 6n29w. ...........

From the 8:05 pm Atlantic discussion.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
287. TheWeatherMan504
12:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
286. 7544 12:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2008

If that sheer doesent let up that wave is on DEATH ROW!!!!!!
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
286. 7544
12:22 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
TheWeatherMan504 12:21 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
277. after that its a rough ride for that wave.

thats the ticket after looking at the sheer map it cant make it unless things change . way too much westerlies to contend with
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285. Stormchaser2007
12:22 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
CATL looks better than dean when it was a depression!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
284. Drakoen
12:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
279. stoormfury 12:16 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
SiormW and Drak look at his impessive ball of convection
looref="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_TROPATLEAST/recentir.html" target="_blank">Link


Most of the convection is east of the wave axis. I'm not impressed. Large area of upper level confluence is being support by an open upper level ridge and the subtropical high. An upper level high centered to the west of the wave at 10N 30W along the subequatorial ridge axis supporting the convection with the system with the upper level diffluence.
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283. IKE
7:22 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Maybe the shear lets up in the Caribbean....impressive looking wave.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
282. TheWeatherMan504
12:16 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
277. after that its a rough ride for that wave.

Boris is going to be a hurricane by the bext advisory.
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281. stoormfury
12:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2008

Link
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280. Drakoen
12:17 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
LOL yea Nash. Avila is the best.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
279. stoormfury
12:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
SiormW and Drak look at his impessive ball of convection
looref="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_TROPATLEAST/recentir.html" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2692
278. severstorm
8:14 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
hey NASH28 if ya got time check out tampa radar and zoom in on z-hills and you will see what i was telling you. i live at 301 north 4 miles out of zhills near miss again
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277. Stormchaser2007
12:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
5-10knots ahead of it....

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15892
276. TheWeatherMan504
12:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
supposed to be over $5.00/gallon by thanksgiving.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
275. nash28
12:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
But as I have previously noted, I am longing for another one of Lixion's rants!!!!

I love that guy!
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274. nash28
12:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The NHC has gone through some serious hell from the public lately...

They are being very careful and conservative, I believe, this year...
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273. barbadosjulie
12:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
whats the sheer looking like around and ahead of the wave?
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272. presslord
8:00 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
"gas would shoot up to a gazillion dollars a gallon!"

Amen to that!!! Can't afford gas to get to the grocery store...but can't afford the groceries either...so I guess it doesn't matter.....
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270. stoormfury
11:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
StormW
Looking at recent IRsat pics and RGB sat photos there is no doubt that this area of distubed weather is close to TD status. there is evidence that there appears to be a LLC and i would not be surprised if it is a closed one. the system is getting better organissd with good out flow boudaries. it is rather surprising that the area has not even considered an invest . iam positive before the night is out the area will be designated something or the other
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2692
269. Drakoen
12:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm impressed with Boris. It looks like it's trying to develop it's poleward outflow, the equatorward outflow is very well established.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
268. JLPR
11:59 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
03E is down on the Navy site maybe the C storm formed in the East pacific?
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266. CybrTeddy
11:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
That wave has managed to sustain convection all day.
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265. chessrascal
7:56 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
NHC doesnt want to scare everyone til they have to lol
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264. Drakoen
11:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
263. StormW 11:50 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
261. JFV 7:43 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Thank you so much for answering my question like always sir! Also, were you surpirsed or perhaps not by the NHC not deciding to make mention of the CATL disturbance this evening StormW?


Yes...I am surprised! It looks just as good as the Invest. areas that were in the PAC. I've often noticed that, how they're quick to jump on something in the PAC, and wait sometimes until a system is almost TS strength before talking about it.



That's true. Poor Dean had to sustain himself for so long and even when they called it a depression it looked nearly the same lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30494
262. JLPR
11:41 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
The last quickscat image to capture the area showed some turning at the surface maybe on the next pass it could be more defined?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.