Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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362. cajunkid
2:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
They have access to everything we have and then some.

and then some more...I'd be like a little kid on X-mas morning in there
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361. BahaHurican
10:00 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
National Hurricane Center Staff - a Partial Listing
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notice the vacancies . . . maybe somebody we know should apply . . . :o)--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Office of the Director

Director
Bill Read

Deputy Director
Ed Rappaport, PhD

Executive Officer
(Vacant)


Hurricane Specialists Unit

Senior Hurricane Specialists
Lixion Avila, PhD
Jack Beven, PhD
James Franklin
Richard Knabb, PhD
Richard Pasch, PhD
Stacy R. Stewart – Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)


Hurricane Specialists
Eric Blake
Daniel Brown
Jamie Rhome
(Vacant)

Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)

Branch Chief
Christopher Burr

Lead Forecasters . . .

Forecasters. . .

Intern Forecasters
Marshall Huffman
(Vacant)

UCAR Visiting Scientist
(Vacant)




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360. FLWeatherFreak91
10:01 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Post #324 Sat image of Africa is extraordinary. It is already a perfect wave train. We'll just have to see if the Ocean is ready for the train yet.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
359. SLU
2:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
335. Drakoen 1:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
This evening's high resolution quicksat images showed a small weak but closed low level circulation at 35W. I wouldn't read much into it until something more substantial shows up.


That's last night's QUIKSCAT PASS. The satellite appears to be down tonight.
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358. conchygirl
9:59 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I am originally from Miami and raised between there and the Keys......now residing in Melbourne
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357. Drakoen
1:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
355. BahaHurican 1:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
351. JFV 9:51 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I apologies if I insulted you with the remark concerning the NHC that I made previously.

Nah. It just made me think about how we are sometimes so eager and excited that we forget they prolly are too - only THEY have to be "professional" about it . . . :o) Besides, I think we all have posted something similar at one time or the other - "wonder why / surpised NHC hasn't said anything about this yet" . . .


I think some here haven't seen the NHC in action. Their job is to cover the entire Atlantic basin. They have access to everything we have and then some.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
356. BahaHurican
9:58 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
freak, I think they do 8 and 2.

conchygirl, may I ask where u are from?
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355. BahaHurican
9:54 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
351. JFV 9:51 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I apologies if I insulted you with the remark concerning the NHC that I made previously.


Nah. It just made me think about how we are sometimes so eager and excited that we forget they prolly are too - only THEY have to be "professional" about it . . . :o) Besides, I think we all have posted something similar at one time or the other - "wonder why / surprised NHC hasn't said anything about this yet" . . .

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354. tropicfreak
9:56 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Don't they have a 1005 Tropical Weather Discussion.
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353. tropicfreak
9:54 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
ok.
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352. Tazmanian
6:48 PM PDT on June 27, 2008
the gfs is forcasting a strong S Atlantic TS

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350. conchygirl
9:47 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
346

Agree Baha Hurricane.......excellent post!
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348. tropicfreak
9:46 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
341 I think it might hit florida. Still too early to tell. It hasn't developed yet. But when it develops we can determine where it will go.
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347. tropicfreak
9:44 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Yeah at this time of year it isn't all that busy but come august and september would be a headache.
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346. BahaHurican
9:25 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Evening, all. Good to see a few areas of interest that deserve watching.

293. JFV 8:37 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I'm glad to see that they aren't entirely oblivious to it, right folks?


I'm always a bit amused when we rage in here about how the NHC hasn't marked such and such a system as an invest, or a TD, or a TS, or so on. We act as if they must not be paying attention, or even as if they just don't know enough to call it, while we do. Having read some of the NHC personnel's comments over the years, however, I'm pretty sure there isn't anything out there that we're watching which NHC's guys aren't also watching, and likely for the same reasons we are. Putting aside the fact that "it's their job" to watch, and also the fact that NHC constitutes some of the world's best when it comes to tropical cyclone formation analysis, we also have to remember that these guys are as avid "weather-watchers" as we are - if anything, more so! I'm pretty sure not just anybody gets to be a Hurricane Specialist or a Forecaster with TAFB. People who think tropical weather is boring don't get a job at NHC. (I'm sure hurricane23 will back me up on this.)

So I think we ought to cut the guys and gals a little slack, keeping in mind that in one way WE are not really the target audience for a lot of their discussions. Think about it; are we normally GETTING new information when we read the latest TWD, or just confirming stuff we have been looking at / thinking and talking about for the previous 4 hours? I think when they prepare the outlooks and discussions they are targeting the audience we USED to be - interested in the tropics, but not knowledgeable enough (or obsessed enough LOL) to go further.

And I agree Avila is my current #1 forecaster when it comes to discussions.
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345. conchygirl
9:43 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Nice to see that some of you knowlegeable folks seem to never sleep and keep us up to date on the tropics!
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344. tropicfreak
9:43 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
LOL!
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343. IKE
8:42 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
342

LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
342. Drakoen
1:41 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
340. IKE 1:40 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
338. tropicfreak 8:36 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
You won't believe what I heard on TWC

"For the Atlantic, all blue, nothing to monitor."

LOL.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

He agrees.


I guess it's a good time to take a cruise to the CV islands next week.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
341. Tazmanian
6:38 PM PDT on June 27, 2008
so where is this wave going


MX or FL????
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340. IKE
8:37 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
338. tropicfreak 8:36 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
You won't believe what I heard on TWC

"For the Atlantic, all blue, nothing to monitor."


LOL.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters


He agrees.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
339. Drakoen
1:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
If Boris gets up to the Raw T# reading it would be a hurricane.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUN 2008 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:29:28 N Lon : 110:10:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1004.3mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
338. tropicfreak
9:35 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
You won't believe what I heard on TWC

"For the Atlantic, all blue, nothing to monitor."
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337. CybrTeddy
1:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Convection re-Building.
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336. CJ5
1:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Things are lined up like CV season..lol, maybe were not there yet but time is ticking. Each wave since the begining of June started taking shape to only die, the deaths will stop soon enough.
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335. Drakoen
1:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
This evening's high resolution quicksat images showed a small weak but closed low level circulation at 35W. I wouldn't read much into it until something more substantial shows up.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
334. tropicfreak
9:32 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Still going strong.
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333. tropicfreak
9:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
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332. tropicfreak
9:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
That wave looks just like a TD.
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331. stoormfury
1:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
LASTEST ON catl wave
Link
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330. eye
1:27 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
it looks like a wave, the convection has not consolidated, in fact, it has gone from consolidated to now spread out and now just looks like a strong tropical wave.
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329. Drakoen
1:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
328. Levi32 1:25 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Nvm Drak I found it by searching for that guy's name that you mentioned. Thanks anyway. That's a neat product for tracking waves over Africa.


Yes it is. That is what Weather456 and I have been using to track and detect tropical waves.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
328. Levi32
1:23 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Nvm Drak I found it by searching for that guy's name that you mentioned. Thanks anyway. That's a neat product for tracking waves over Africa.
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327. stoormfury
1:22 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
maybe EYE needs EYES (LOL]
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326. CybrTeddy
1:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
eye, you weren't impressed with Dean even.
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325. Levi32
1:14 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
323. Drakoen 1:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2008

Could you link me to that please? Several people post it and I've never been able to find it. It would be much appreciated.
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324. tropicfreak
9:08 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
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323. Drakoen
1:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
319. Levi32 1:06 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
310. Drakoen 12:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
It appears the wave the GFS is developing is just west of 20W over Central Africa. This is based on the GFS 700mb winds and potential vorticity tracking.

Um you probably mean 20E.....and I've posted 3 images since last night showing which wave it is....Accuweather has GFS model data for Africa so I used it to determine which wave it is. It's at about 12E right now.


Yes I meant 20E lol. I used the 315k potential vorticity from the Gareth Berry page to determine its the wave just west of 20E.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
322. Patrap
8:09 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
321. Patrap
8:07 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector
Product Description

Return to Tropical Wave Tracking front page.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
320. eye
1:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
looks like a comma, not impressed with its structure, looks pretty sloppy convection wise....
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319. Levi32
1:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
310. Drakoen 12:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
It appears the wave the GFS is developing is just west of 20W over Central Africa. This is based on the GFS 700mb winds and potential vorticity tracking.


Um you probably mean 20E.....and I've posted 3 images since last night showing which wave it is....Accuweather has GFS model data for Africa so I used it to determine which wave it is. It's at about 12E right now.
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318. tropicfreak
9:05 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
This updated Sat map shows the wave more "broad".
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317. tropicfreak
9:02 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
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316. IKE
8:03 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Actually it was 6 hours old...my bad too...I see you edited it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
315. Stormchaser2007
1:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Latest Image...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
314. stoormfury
12:50 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
LLC of catl is 8N 34W Most of the convection is to the east. wait and see what happens after DMAX
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313. tropicfreak
9:01 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
oh!
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312. IKE
8:00 PM CDT on June 27, 2008
Looks like the wave lost a little bit of its convection but notice that there's another wave coming off Africa.

That's 2 hours old...check the time...1815.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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