Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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412. BahaHurican
11:01 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
23, what's with the bald head? Is Cantore inspiring a change in WXman hair styles???

LOL
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411. hurricane23
10:59 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Drak thats avila to the left of my pic.

July could be interesting with those impressive waves rolling of the african coast.
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410. sporteguy03
3:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
JP,
Any parting thoughts on the Central Atlantic Wave?
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409. pottery
10:53 PM AST on June 27, 2008
Evening all.
Its konk or lambie here !

Sat on my deck looking at some lightening over Venezuela this evening, and wondered what was up. I now see that a Trop Wave passed though here this afternoon. Brought some showers, and the press. here was 1013 falling when I checked this am. Up to 1015 rising now.

The wave in the Atl is looking promising. Some dry air ahead of it, but not much. Will need to keep an eye on this one for sure !
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408. atmoaggie
2:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Avila is one of my favorite forcasters at the TPC.

I can tell you that in 30 minutes of talking to him, that Bill Read seems like a decent enough guy to call boss, too.
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407. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
lol
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406. BahaHurican
10:56 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
401. conchygirl 10:54 PM EDT on June 27, 2008

Hey, we had conch here before u guys did . . . LOL

The Great Bahama Bank isn't only known for its sponges, and conch has been a part of the Bahamian diet for centuries.
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405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:56 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning number FOUR
3:00 AM UTC June 28 2008

==========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Boris (1000 hPa) located near 13.6N 110.8W or 560 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
24 HRS: 14.4N 113.0W - 55 knots (Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.5N 115.5W - 50 knots (Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.5N 118.5W - 45 knots (Cyclone)

-----------------------------------------------

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
3:00 AM UTC June 28 2008

========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located near 14.2N 123.5W or 935 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
24 HRS: 14.7N 126.5W - 35 knots (Cyclone)
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404. Drakoen
2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Monitoring some areas of convection over Africa:
Photobucket
Photobucket
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403. JLPR
2:54 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I posted this at my blog =P
I basically did a summary of everything everyone here said =P. This is, I think, the first time I do this =)
----
A possibility for 92L?

This is a tropical wave located at 37W. This wave started developing convection since last night and has maintained it until now. The wave has a favorable environment with wind shear between 10- 15kts, 28-29C water temperatures which are above the 26C required to maintain convection and a moist environment.
But there is some SAL to the north and west of this system that could help keep the system in check and some hostile wind shear to the north close to 15N.

This area of disturbed weather needs to stay below 15N, move slowly to maintain a moist environment and fight off the SAL.

But even with those limiting factors this area has a very decent shot at becoming 92L.

This is the info the NHC gave:
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W S OF 12N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A
BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E
OF THE WAVE IN THE REGION WITHIN 11N34W TO 6N29W.


And thats all the info I have =P

SAL map:Link
Wind shear map:Link
Surface Map:Link
SST map:Link
Water Vapor map:Link
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402. hurricane23
10:54 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Avila is one of my favorite forcasters at the TPC.

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401. conchygirl
10:52 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
BahaHurican \

Excellent! You either are from here or have assimilated. :)

Now try Bahia Honda! :)
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400. BahaHurican
10:49 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
394. conchygirl 10:46 PM EDT on June 27, 2008

konk
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398. atmoaggie
2:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Best of luck, 23!

Part of me would love to do that and part of me really wouldn't want anything to do with that job...not in Miami nor anywhere else.

I am sure there are times when it is terrific.
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397. Drakoen
2:49 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
395. hurricane23 2:47 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Once i finish school next september and finally get my bachelors degree iam going to apply at the forcast office in miami.


That's a nice goal. I think you and Avila would get along great, no offense. :0)
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396. sporteguy03
2:47 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Adrian that will be great good luck with that and remember us bloggers when you do when we praise or disagree with you :)
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395. hurricane23
10:42 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Once i finish school next september and finally get my bachelors degree iam going to apply at the forcast office in miami.
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394. conchygirl
10:44 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Baha: Please tell me you can pronounce Conch as we locals do--one of my many pet peeves! :)

Night all!
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393. atmoaggie
2:44 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Being AMS certified is a great accomplishment and StormW is one of the smartest people on here.

I second that...and that.
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391. sporteguy03
2:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
JP should apply
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390. atmoaggie
2:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
That's one big salary lol. I wouldn't mind that.

That's one big cost of living in Miami, too.

I got a job offer at UMiami, once, but figured out all the things I like that I wouldn't be able to afford.
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389. Drakoen
2:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I shouldn't say "just"... lack of a better word. Being AMS certified is a great accomplishment and StormW is one of the smartest people on here.
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388. hurricane23
10:34 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
.

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387. BahaHurican
10:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
370. SLU 10:10 PM EDT on June 27, 2008

It seems there are problems with servers and so on that they have been trying to solve, to the point where they have stuff offline for 1/2 day or more at a time. Somebody posted some info about it last night.
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386. conchygirl
10:30 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Yes, I believe you are correct in that a degree in Meterology is probably a requirement for the position!
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385. Drakoen
2:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
383. TheWeatherMan504 2:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
StormW should apply


The job position most likely requires a degree in meteorology. StormW is just AMS certified.
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384. conchygirl
10:27 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
382
Baha, I am originally from Miami and raised between Miami and the Keys.......now living in Melbourne.

APPLY, APPLY!
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383. TheWeatherMan504
2:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
StormW should apply
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
382. BahaHurican
10:24 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Well, my power just went out again, and it's the THIRD time this evening. Not a cloud in sight!!! :(

So I'm on dialup.

381. conchygirl 10:22 PM EDT on June 27, 2008

So long as it's not me! LOL

Ah, a Keys girl. No wonder u understand the importance of conch . . . lol
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381. conchygirl
10:20 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Baha.
Sounds like you have some thoughts as to who should apply! :)
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380. Drakoen
2:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
375. BahaHurican 2:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
One of the NHC Hurricane Specialists, Michelle Mainelli, a Rhode Island native

Maybe the heat got to her.

Though if she is going to Texas, maybe not.


The heat is just as bad if not worse in Texas.
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379. BahaHurican
10:18 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
374. Drakoen 10:17 PM EDT on June 27, 2008

I did say someone should apply LOL
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377. weathermanwannabe
10:18 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Good Night Folks (The Wife is telling me to get off the computer.........)...WW
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376. hurricane23
10:16 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I had a chance to chat with her on one of my tours to the NHC and trust me she knows here stuff and will do very well in here future endeavors.
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375. BahaHurican
10:15 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
One of the NHC Hurricane Specialists, Michelle Mainelli, a Rhode Island native

Maybe the heat got to her.

Though if she is going to Texas, maybe not.
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374. Drakoen
2:16 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
373. BahaHurican 2:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Found both these posts on Storm2K, just posted day before yesterday. Came up as hit#2 for her name on Google.

NOAA is seeking qualified applicants for the position of Hurricane Specialist in Miami. I wonder if someone has retired. Job closes 7/8/08 with a salery range of $81,739 to $106,266. Some serious coin. Guess I need to update my resume. You can check out at http://www.usajobs.gov.....MGC


That's one big salary lol. I wouldn't mind that.
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373. BahaHurican
10:10 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Found both these posts on Storm2K, just posted day before yesterday. Came up as hit#2 for her name on Google.

NOAA is seeking qualified applicants for the position of Hurricane Specialist in Miami. I wonder if someone has retired. Job closes 7/8/08 with a salery range of $81,739 to $106,266. Some serious coin. Guess I need to update my resume. You can check out at http://www.usajobs.gov.....MGC


Michelle (I never knew her, incidentially) is still with the agency, just at another facility outside this region...

Some (or many) move down here from up north, and, find Miami's very tropical lifestyle just too different for their taste, so, after a year or two they decide to move on to a place where they feel more comfortable...
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372. Drakoen
2:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
371. hurricane23 2:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
364. Drakoen 10:08 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I noticed Mainelli isnt' working their anymore. Wonder what happened...

She got a new job offer up in Texas.


ah I see. Maybe a better opportunity I guess...
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371. hurricane23
10:09 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
364. Drakoen 10:08 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I noticed Mainelli isnt' working their anymore. Wonder what happened...

She got a new job offer up in Texas.
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370. SLU
2:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Yeh they need to get this thing fixed soon. It breaks down almost every other day for days on end sometimes.

That wave looks good though. It probably has the best chance to develop compared to all of the other impressive waves so far this month.
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369. BahaHurican
10:09 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
364. Drakoen 10:08 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
I noticed Mainelli isnt' working their anymore. Wonder what happened...


That also caught my eye. Actually, it's been a while since I've seen her name on the discussions.
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368. Drakoen
2:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
366. JFV 2:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Thanks for understanding me Baha! Hey Drak, you staying awake till the latest GFS model run comes out later tonight or not?


Same answer I gave you last night.
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367. weathermanwannabe
10:00 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
354. tropicfreak 9:57 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Don't they have a 1005 Tropical Weather Discussion.


The next TWD will be issued at 2:05 AM (way past my bedtime so I'll check it in the am)...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
365. BahaHurican
10:06 PM EDT on June 27, 2008
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watch/Warning Breakpoints
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Description
Coastal areas placed under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings are identified through the use of "breakpoints." A tropical cyclone breakpoint is defined as an agreed upon coastal location that can be chosen as specific end points or designated places where a tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning is in effect. The U.S. National Weather Service designates the locations along the U.S. East, Gulf, and California coasts, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii.

Individual countries across the Caribbean, Central America, and South America provide coastal locations for their areas of responsibility to the U.S. National Weather Service for the National Hurricane Center's use in tropical cyclone advisories when watches/warnings are issued by international partners. The National Hurricane Center maintains a list of pre-arranged breakpoints for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Mexico, Cuba and the Bahamas. Other sites are unofficial and sites not on the list can be selected if conditions warrant.

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364. Drakoen
2:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I noticed Mainelli isnt' working there anymore. Wonder what happened...
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363. Drakoen
2:06 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
359. SLU 2:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
335. Drakoen 1:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
This evening's high resolution quicksat images showed a small weak but closed low level circulation at 35W. I wouldn't read much into it until something more substantial shows up.

That's last night's QUIKSCAT PASS. The satellite appears to be down tonight.


I didn't realize.
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362. cajunkid
2:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
They have access to everything we have and then some.

and then some more...I'd be like a little kid on X-mas morning in there
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.