Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
()

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562. kmanislander
11:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
good morning

Even though this report is 5 hrs old there are West winds with the CATL wave

Link
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561. NC0WX0Man
11:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'll say that there is alot of dust out there for one and two there's a Tutt over by P.R. and should move over into the Carribean which means sheared to death for the tropical wave so it won't make it pass the Lesser Antilles (sp?) and yes it looks good now but these are just minor little flare ups thats all. I'm not saying my thoughts are in stone just saying what I feel and what my opinions are but we'll see what happens.
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560. IKE
6:02 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
The blob/wave/pre-storm near 36 west looks like the only game in town in the Atlantic...for now.

SSD satellites aren't updating again! UGH!
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559. sporteguy03
10:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
544. SpaceThrilla1207 9:23 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
It will NOT develop! There is too much dust!

Even if it becomes 92L (which it won't), it will not develop. I agree with JP.

Where did JP say that? I don't recall him saying that in the last 5 pages on here.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
558. IKE
5:55 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
CMC 00Z run has backed off on an African system...but has jumped on-board the wave near 40W...kinda...and the CMC is iffy at best...

On Crack?
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557. IKE
5:51 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
The believers vs. the non-believers......

06Z GFS.....

link
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556. SpaceThrilla1207
10:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008


above average shear once again
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555. SpaceThrilla1207
10:42 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
hi TayTay, it's nice to see another fellow downcaster back for this season. :)

Meanwhile, looks like Cristina is close to the death zone...Boris won't be long.
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554. IKE
5:39 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
You go you central-Atlantic wave.

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553. TayTay
10:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
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552. TayTay
10:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It'll go poof very soon.
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551. KoritheMan
9:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good morning, NC0WX0Man.

I'm out for now, all. Later.
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550. NC0WX0Man
9:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I agree I believe the wave out in the ATL will not be declared an invest and will dissipate right before it reaches the islands. Conditions are unfavorable thats my reason why and nothing to do with climatology. Good morning by the way.
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549. KoritheMan
9:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well nothing has a zero chance give it a 1% at least lol =)

My bad. =)

Later, JLPR.
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548. KoritheMan
9:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
So you agree zero percent chance of development with this one? How about the one the GFS has been predicting off Africa for the last 16 model runs?

I agree with zero percent chance of development out here in the central Atlantic, but not because of climatology. Conditions are simply aren't favorable for it. In addition, the wave is too far south to feel the full effects of the Coriolis force and develop spin. Not even Felix developed this far south, I don't think. Now, if the wave survives its passage through the unfavorable shear caused by the TUTT (which should lift out within the next week or so and be replaced by more favorable easterlies), then we need to watch it, since it may be able to develop closer to home.

As for the storm the GFS has been predicting, that's certainly a possibility, in spite of what climatology says. Bertha of 1996 formed on July 5 near the Cape Verde Islands, becoming the earliest Cape Verde storm on record. It also became a major hurricane, becoming one of only few July major hurricanes in the Atlantic. So if Bertha can do it, this wave can too.

Normally I would say climatology wins the battle of the GFS storm, but I've heard conditions are supposed to be favorable when the wave that is predicted to develop comes off. Something to watch.
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547. JLPR
9:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well nothing has a zero chance give it a 1% at least lol =)

Well im out see you guys later
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
546. SpaceThrilla1207
9:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
So you agree zero percent chance of development with this one? How about the one the GFS has been predicting off Africa for the last 16 model runs?
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545. KoritheMan
9:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It will NOT develop! There is too much dust!

Seems to be doing well so far. Convection is building again within the last few frames.

Even if it becomes 92L (which it won't), it will not develop. I agree with JP.

Invests aren't formed, they are declared. Big difference. And everyone (myself included) will have to eat crow sometimes. Not saying you're wrong, because quite honestly, I don't think the wave will be distinct on satellite imagery within the next 24 hours. I'm just saying that you need to be prepared for the impossible to happen with weather, even when climatology says no.
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544. SpaceThrilla1207
9:22 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It will NOT develop! There is too much dust!

Even if it becomes 92L (which it won't), it will not develop. I agree with JP.
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543. KoritheMan
9:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I still see zero chance for development though. When climotology says no, no means no. .It won't happen that far out in late June.

Oh, really? This says otherwise:

Tropical Depression Two (2000):



It was a Cape Verde Storm in June. Didn't reach tropical storm status, but nonetheless became a tropical cyclone.

After all, how often do you see tropical depressions/storms form WHEN THE NHC FORECASTS NO DEVELOPMENT? Almost never.

I've found the opposite to be the case.

How often do you see a storm develop when they don't even mention something at all? Never.

This I can agree with.
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542. JLPR
9:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Very well its 5:00Am and the tropical wave is looking good =P
And now with visible imagery we can get a better look and see if there is a surface low or not =)
The wave deserves to be tagged 92L.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
541. SpaceThrilla1207
7:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Guys, don't say that the NHC is "asleep at the wheel" or anything. The NHC does their jobs the right way. After all, how often do you see tropical depressions/storms form WHEN THE NHC FORECASTS NO DEVELOPMENT? Almost never. How often do you see a storm develop when they don't even mention something at all? Never.

I'm giving this a 0% percent chance of development; 20% chance if they had mentioned it.
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540. SpaceThrilla1207
7:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Actually, this storm looks better than 96L of last year...I'd actually give the edge to this CATL low over 96L.

I still see zero chance for development though. When climotology says no, no means no. It won't happen that far out in late June.
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539. 7544
7:02 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
511. (cough* cough*) Barry.....


ill have to agree with this it just might surpise us just like jfv whos never here at this time hahaha hey welcome to the night shift tropic watch jfv
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538. 7544
6:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
511. (cough* cough*) Barry.....

i agree this may just suprise us just like jvr did hes never here at this time hahaha
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537. 7544
6:52 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
very nice form of convection now buliding with out catl wave if it was closer to the west they prob. would have tag it 92l by down with its consisity at 3am this wave might get better dress tonight
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536. 0741
6:31 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
535. HurakanPR 6:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
No ice cap is the same as wearing a black clothes, the heat gets absorbed and the cold air spread southward, not a pretty picture. Think about it. The wave is pretty impresive, but to far from land for the NHC to call it an invest, i think. They only do that if it represents a threat to land in a day or two, not the case here.
that not case i see invest in that area only reason their not talk about it because it not yet season for it form in that area plus it little far south
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535. HurakanPR
2:03 AM AST on June 28, 2008
No ice cap is the same as wearing a black clothes, the heat gets absorbed and the cold air spread southward, not a pretty picture. Think about it. The wave is pretty impresive, but to far from land for the NHC to call it an invest, i think. They only do that if it represents a threat to land in a day or two, not the case here.
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534. weatherblog
5:51 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good night, JLPR and everyone else!
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533. JLPR
5:49 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
night weatherblog =)

Well I guess im going from this blog lol

good night everyone =)
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532. JLPR
5:47 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
oh question answered lol =)
night JFV =)
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531. weatherblog
5:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well, regardless of development with the wave, it certainly is interesting to watch...

G'night!
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530. JLPR
5:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
when is the next two?
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528. JLPR
5:45 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well lol maybe they dont see much hope for the wave =P

night stormchaser =)
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527. weatherblog
5:44 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Wow...I think maybe the NHC fell asleep.
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526. Stormchaser2007
5:43 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Wow....uhh is guess its time to go to bed then...(walks away from computer twitching). Good night guys!!
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525. weatherblog
5:39 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
515. Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
511. (cough* cough*) Barry.....


Yes...the only reason I believe it was declared a TS was because #1) It was in the GOM #2) it had a closed circulation.

And neither of those match for our CATL wave... so it'll take the NHC a little while to notice this one.

thats very true maybe if this wave were closer to land it would be already 92L (JLPR)

I agree. lol...hence statement #1 up above.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
524. Stormchaser2007
5:41 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
521. ROFL...they better other wise im pretty sure ill flip out!
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523. JLPR
5:41 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
umm they dont seem to worry about our little wave...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
520. Stormchaser2007
5:39 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The not so little wave that could....

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519. weatherblog
5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
512. JFV 5:35 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm waiting for the TWO to be released at 2am by the NHC folks!


lol... Me too.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
518. Stormchaser2007
5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
same JFV...it comes out at 1:50 though. If the NHC doesnt mention it then i give up on them completely because thats just being ignorant.
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517. JLPR
5:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
and since quikscat froze I checked Ascat
I dont like it because it is in strips =P but it seems this pass captured the east side of the pretty decent circulation the wave has.



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515. Stormchaser2007
5:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
511. (cough* cough*) Barry.....
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514. Stormchaser2007
5:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I can understand hw you think that this needs more time CA but.....the thing is if this wave keeps moving north west theres not gonna be anymore time fer it to organize.
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513. JLPR
5:35 AM GMT on June 28, 2008

Agree 100%...that's why I said it would be suprising if it becomes a TD by morning. It's not quite there yet...though I have seen worse looking tropical storms.


thats very true maybe if this wave were closer to land it would be already 92L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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