Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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612. CJ5
12:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Proenza would be unhappy with all of these Qscat issues...maybe a little I told you will affect this years season...hmmmm

A revisit of that issue does not show any more updated info and how it all shook out, still looks like the indians took over to me.
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611. sporteguy03
12:49 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
More like as the troll turns
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610. nrtiwlnvragn
8:48 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
You can look at QuickSCAT data through the ASCAT site. The pass this morning missed the CATL wave. Pass from yesterday afternoon.
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609. BahaHurican
8:43 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
As the Wave Turns!!!

LOL Good one, StormW . . .

605. cajunkid 8:39 AM EDT on June 28, 2008

Wouldn't that be "T WAVES of Our Lives"???

Anyway, guys, I've gotta go. Ya'll keep an eye on the wave for me, and if it does make something of itself before I get back this evening, keep the crow portions small, please LOL
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607. CJ5
12:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Thanks, IKE. The SAL does look pretty heavy.
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605. cajunkid
7:31 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Otherwise known as "As The Wave Turns"
LOL

Like words on the looking glass, these are the days of our lives.
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604. stoormfury
12:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
IKE i agree. so there is indeed a closed low. cannot get either QS or ASCAT to confirm this. QS seems to be down and i am expecting today's ASCAT pas ssoon
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603. IKE
7:37 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
It's not exactly moving at a brisk pace...
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602. tropicfreak
8:36 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
I think the SAL problem ahead of it will go away.
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601. nrtiwlnvragn
8:36 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
SST from the series of bouys located at 38W. The data from the two northern bouys stopped about a week ago.





Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project
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600. CybrTeddy
12:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
If they could declare 91L an Invest they sure as Jesus Christ in a Bread Basket can declare this wave an Invest.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
599. stormdude77
8:27 AM AST on June 28, 2008
I think the main problem for the CATL Twave (in term's of convection persisting) is the dry air (subsidence environment), just ahead of it...JMO...
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598. tropicfreak
8:34 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
your a downcaster
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597. IKE
7:32 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
SAL
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596. BahaHurican
8:23 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
leftovers,

Don't forget to share if u find something workable. We all can benefit from another good SSTs link.

On the CATL Twave, I am enjoying the watching of it. I agree with NHC that it's not going to do much more than it's currently doing - all the ingredients for organizing are just not sufficiently in place to allow it to develop further. Nevertheless, I don't agree with the "poofers"; even with the ECar shear in place, I think enough of the wave will make it through the Caribbean, like some of its predecessors, to potentially spawn something tropical down the road (in this case I think EPac). After all, that's where Boris came from. I'm sure there are some Hovmoller diagrams around somewhere that will substantiate my case on the propogation. :o)

But this is what the climatology is telling us; the waves mostly don't "go away"; they just get blown west until they're out of range. I admit I haven't paid much attention to what happens to Twaves once they move into the CPac . . .
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595. IKE
7:28 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
stoormfury...that's at 38W, 8N....they shouldn't have SW winds, yet...that's just west of the circulation.

Here's a buoy at 4N..38W with SW winds......

Link

More recent obs.
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593. CJ5
12:28 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Anyone got a shot of the SAL the non believers keep hanging onto? The dry air problem looks to have disappeared, also.
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592. tropicfreak
8:29 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
590. ??????????????
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591. IKE
7:27 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I don't hardly ever watch TWC...local on the 8's and that's it.........
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590. stoormfury
12:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
this is the latest bouy readings close to the catl wave which indicates that there is not a closed low. there is no winds from the south west


Link
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589. tropicfreak
8:27 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
yeah the sst's are warm enough.
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588. tropicfreak
8:24 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Let's check the Tropical update on TWC!

LOL!

I'll bet they say no chance of development or say the parade of showers and thunderstorms keep coming off Africa.I don't THINK that none of these will develop at this time."
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587. IKE
7:21 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I don't think SST's will kill it...it's 80+ degrees...shear is under 20 knots...CIMSS Shear Map
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585. tropicfreak
8:22 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Yeah I noticed last night that there was another wave exiting the African Coast.
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583. tropicfreak
8:20 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Upper level conditions are improving.
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582. CJ5
12:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
554. IKE 10:39 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
You go


Lol...looks ok this am, its a little more compact but still looks ok. The two waves behind (just coming offf and over CAfrica will also be ones to watch....times they are a changing..
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581. extreme236
12:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
BBL
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580. IKE
7:17 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
576. BahaHurican 7:15 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Morning everybody. I see we are getting warmed up for the REAL debate of the 2008 season:

And NOW for another episode in the continuing saga of the Downcasters vs. the Wishcasters!

"It's going to develop!"
"No it won't!"
"What are you watching that twave for? It's not gonna make it."
"Of course it will! Besides it's a tropical blog; we're supposed to watch it."
"It's not gonna hit the US, so it's a bust."
"You are so heartless! What about those iguanas on the unpopulated atolls of the Atlantic!"

And so on . . . LOL Some things never change



LOL! That's funny and true...it's like this EVERY year on here. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The believers vs. the non-believers....

To me...they should declare that wave an invest....doesn't look bad at all.......not on the 1145UTC visible.
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579. tropicfreak
8:16 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
lol
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578. extreme236
12:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
575. LOL the only way your going to get up-to-date SST data is via these maps unless there is a buoy nearby (Drak saw a buoy out there off the African coast area that had 27 degree Celsius temps a couple days ago). Here is the map I use:

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577. tropicfreak
8:15 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Morning everyone. How is the wave in the CATL doing?
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576. BahaHurican
8:03 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Morning everybody. I see we are getting warmed up for the REAL debate of the 2008 season:

And NOW for another episode in the continuing saga of the Downcasters vs. the Wishcasters!

"It's going to develop!"
"No it won't!"
"What are you watching that twave for? It's not gonna make it."
"Of course it will! Besides it's a tropical blog; we're supposed to watch it."
"It's not gonna hit the US, so it's a bust."
"You are so heartless! What about those iguanas on the unpopulated atolls of the Atlantic!"

And so on . . . LOL Some things never change.
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574. IKE
7:09 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
28 degrees Celsius is 82 degrees Fahrenheit.


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573. extreme236
12:06 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Just stopping in real quick...

571. Waters are warm enough...not sure what you are talking about.
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572. GetReal
11:50 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Free floating buoy in immediate area of CATL wave is reporting 28 degree C. water temps, plenty warm enough...
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570. IKE
6:41 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Central-Atlantic wave...

"A tropical wave is along 37w S of 11n moving W near 15 kt. A
broad mid to low level circulation is noted on infrared
satellite imagery and scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 7n-11n between 31w-37w."......



Convection has died off some in the last few frames.....
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569. GetReal
11:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
544. SpaceThrilla1207 9:23 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It will NOT develop!


One of the first two words you should delete from the wx vocabulary is "will not"!!! Use the words should not, or probably not!!! It will leave you some wiggle room, and make it easier to eat crow later on!!! LOL
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568. sporteguy03
11:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
564. SpaceThrilla1207 11:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
Does the 06Z GFS become the 17th straight run of African development or does it end at 16 IKE?


Also, why is everyone talking about the CATL wave, it won't develop.

It is a tropical weather blog that is why people talk about the tropics on here.

Why do you post on here?
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567. IKE
6:37 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
SpaceThrilla1207...the wave near 35W...looks like a survivor.......
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566. CybrTeddy
11:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
SpaceThrilla, you say like its set in stone? You should know to Never say Never. Specially after '05
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565. IKE
6:33 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
564. SpaceThrilla1207 6:32 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Does the 06Z GFS become the 17th straight run of African development or does it end at 16 IKE?


Also, why is everyone talking about the CATL wave, it won't develop.


GFS looks like it's backed-off some..on the system coming off Africa...

What do you want to talk about?
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564. SpaceThrilla1207
11:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Does the 06Z GFS become the 17th straight run of African development or does it end at 16 IKE?


Also, why is everyone talking about the CATL wave, it won't develop.
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563. OrchidGrower
11:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
From the dry air and raging northwesterlies over the GOM of the previous weeks, this morning's infrared of widespread moisture moving through the Gulf warms my heart. We desperately need the rain up here in North Georgia.

Is all this moisture simply on its way to Texas and then a malignant cycle on up to the Midwest, or is any of it likely to push in closer to us in the East?
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562. kmanislander
11:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
good morning

Even though this report is 5 hrs old there are West winds with the CATL wave

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.