Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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662. MasterForecaster
2:52 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
aggie i was just messin with ya! your a very enthusiatic poster and i admire your enthusiasm =]
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661. pearlandaggie
2:52 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
anyone have a link to the graphic showing the position of the loop current along with velocities?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
660. SpaceThrilla1207
2:52 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Looks BETTER than yesterday? Laff.

It shows NO signs of organization. It looks elongated and there is no surface low. If it doesn't develop you all have to eat 10 crows. If it does I eat 200 crows. Deal?
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659. kmanislander
2:50 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Cayman, the NHC will not say "showing some signs of organization".

Reason: Because it will not organize.

HUH ??.

A wave can show signs of organizing without actually getting organized. How many times have we seen a wave start to develop then just not make it to TD stage ?. There is a difference between the two. Anyway, let's see what happens.

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658. weathersp
10:46 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Yeah Im not suprised that there isn't more talk about this CATL wave. It looks good for this time of year.
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657. 0741
2:46 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
hi all in here happy weekend soon we having looong weekend today quesion of day is why have NHC not notice that wave in catl yet maybe because it little toooo south or their something we donot it got nooo change of becoming td that question of day!!!!!!!!
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656. Tazmanian
7:04 AM PDT on June 28, 2008
the nhc says we now have
Tropical Storm CRISTINA
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
655. TampaSpin
10:50 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
The CATl wave looks pretty darn organized to me and looks better than yesteday...morning everyone....
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654. SpaceThrilla1207
2:50 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
TD 3 has officially become TS Cristina in the Epace. Will not last long as she is running into a brick wall as we speak
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653. pearlandaggie
2:49 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
651. no, no. that wasn't about you. i was responding to a little jab from another poster! you're cool, dude!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
652. SpaceThrilla1207
2:47 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Cayman, the NHC will not say "showing some signs of organization".

Reason: Because it will not organize.
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651. SomeRandomTexan
2:46 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
im sorry,
did i say something wrong... i didnt intend it that way if i did... i guess im eating my words...lol
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650. pearlandaggie
2:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
texan...i believe Camille and Carla formed completely in the GoM.

/edit: technically, Camille and Carla had their beginnings in the extreme western Caribbean, so i stand corrected. sorry about that.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
649. kmanislander
2:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
good day again everyone

The CATL wave is showing increased signs of organization and a surface low appears to be either at or forming near 10N 37W

The cloud movements on the close up visible loop show strong rotation with winds also from the West and SW.

Shear is below 20 knots South of 12N all the way to the Eastern Caribbean and I therefore think this wave has a chance to develop further if it does not gain any additional latitude.

With some additional sustained convection we could see an invest from this within 12 to 18 hrs IMO.

The Tropical Outlook has so far not mentioned this wave but I expect that to change at the next update. It could say something along the lines of " showing some signs of organization ... "
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648. pearlandaggie
2:42 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
644. that wasn't very nice! i suppose i could babble mindlessly about random cloud puffs in the ocean...would that be better? :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
647. SomeRandomTexan
2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
aggie--
your very right, but usually if a storm forms in the gulf it dont have time to explode but those you mentioned were very powerful indeed.
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646. pearlandaggie
2:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
643. yeah, that's not good if another Charley scenario appears
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
645. Drakoen
2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
640. HurrikanEB 2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
hey everyone
whats it called when two storms start to circulate around eachother? i know theres a name for it but i just cant remember what it is


Fujiwara effect
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644. MasterForecaster
2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Aggie do you have nothing else to do but post a million times?? lol
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643. SomeRandomTexan
2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
wow looks like the waters off of the florida coast and the setx swla coasts are really starting to warm
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642. pearlandaggie
2:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
640 fujiwhara effect
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
641. GetReal
2:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
SomeRandomTexan 2:37 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
The good thing about the atl cooling and action being in the gulf is that we wouldn't have to worry about having any mega storms!


How quickly you have forgotten that Katrina in 2005 gained Cat 5 status as a GOM system... LMAO
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640. HurrikanEB
2:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
hey everyone
whats it called when two storms start to circulate around eachother? i know theres a name for it but i just cant remember what it is
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639. pearlandaggie
2:37 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
638. well, remember that Katrina and Rita bombed-out in the Gulf! Brett of '99 was a Cat4 storm that never sniffed the open Atlantic.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
638. SomeRandomTexan
2:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
The good thing about the atl cooling and action being in the gulf is that we wouldn't have to worry about having any mega storms!
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637. pearlandaggie
2:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
GoM SST loop...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
636. pearlandaggie
2:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
635. i hope you're WRONG! :) if the trend continues, the Gulf is where we're going to see the significant activity this year. however, it would be truly anomalous for the cooling trend in the Atl to continue.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
635. SomeRandomTexan
2:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
HEY ALL!

Gulf looks to be gradually warming... We should start seeing some activity soon...
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634. pearlandaggie
2:22 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
a closer look...

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
633. pearlandaggie
2:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
the bathtub continues to warm...

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
632. pearlandaggie
2:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
look at how much the TCHP has decreased in the last week....

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
631. lawntonlookers
10:16 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
This interesting on Tropical Storm Boris and Tropical Depression Three-E and the cluster of clouds to the West of Three-E. Three-E is pulling the cluster into it and Boris is right behind. I wonder of Boris will pull Three-E into it also. Probably not because of the cloder water to the north.

Pacific Radar Loop
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630. philliesrock
2:03 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
The CATL wave won't survive for more than 2 days because it should either move into a broad area of high shear or run into South America.

But I like the chances of an African wave developing because there is virtually no shear and a pool of very hot water off the coast.
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629. GetReal
1:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Buoy 31002:



Last reported at 2008-Jun-28 11:00 UTC.
Time now 2008-Jun-28 13:53 UTC


Air temperature 26.7 C
Water temperature 28.2 C
Location: N 0407' W 03758'.
SW wind 6 knots
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627. pearlandaggie
1:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
things had better start kicking off soon if it's going to rain this morning like forecasted. radar is not showing a whole lot of activity...

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
625. Weather456
8:44 AM AST on June 28, 2008
Good Morning

Tropical Update: Models all over the place

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624. pearlandaggie
1:37 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
623. thanks for the update! the last i had seen there was no real prediction for texas to get any precipitation out of the gulf moisture. i was trying to load the NHC IR loop of the GoM, but FF3 keeps puking on me.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
622. Patrap
8:25 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)Link
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621. pearlandaggie
1:25 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
619. what part of south Texas? it has been really dry, right?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
620. pearlandaggie
1:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
619. probably not, unless it's changed course since the last time i looked....at that time, it was all headed in the general direction of Florida.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
619. thunderblogger
1:18 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Will south texas see any rain from the moisture in the gulf?
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618. FLWeatherFreak91
9:20 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Which wave are you all discussing?!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
617. pearlandaggie
1:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
616. you say it like it's a bad thing! LOL...one month nearly down, five more to go.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
616. weathermanwannabe
9:08 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
I'll admit it by the way; I've been a Downcaster this season (so far)......Lol
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615. stoormfury
12:58 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
they said the QS satelite was old and had to be replaced. now it seems like an old car which breaks down very often and takes long to repair
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614. weathermanwannabe
9:07 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Quick Good Morning.....Looks like the Wave didn't make it (plenty of sheer just to the North to keep it in check as it tried to gain latitude).........Oh Well
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613. FLWeatherFreak91
9:06 AM EDT on June 28, 2008
Whoa. I lost you guys. Are we discussing the wave just now coming off of Africa or the on in the catl?
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
612. CJ5
12:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Proenza would be unhappy with all of these Qscat issues...maybe a little I told you will affect this years season...hmmmm

A revisit of that issue does not show any more updated info and how it all shook out, still looks like the indians took over to me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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