Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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762. SpaceThrilla1207
4:37 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
What steamy pictures? You talking about the porn? No, that was NOT me...you have me confused with someone else...I tell the truth alawys...that was NOT me.
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761. extreme236
4:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
759.

I think I remember that as well
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760. stormdude77
12:36 PM AST on June 28, 2008
Yeah well...I wonder how much E-Mails address he has now, LOL...
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759. IKE
11:35 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
752. SpaceThrilla1207 11:34 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I'm from Dallas, TX too!


Surprise...surprise. Didn't you also put steamy pictures on here too??????
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758. extreme236
4:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
You can tell that people who have had multiple names are trolls cause they keep getting banned/ignored and have to act like other people to get attention.
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757. Drakoen
4:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
739. SpaceThrilla1207 4:31 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
so Drak, does that make it the 19th straight GFS run predicting African development? The GFS is on looney toon steroids.


oh, and looking at the SAL maps...nothing will develop in the CATL/EATL for a LONG LONG time unless the ITCZ moves north and washes out the big SAL barrier...


Do you know how to read computer forecast models?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
756. hurricane23
12:34 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
50-60kt windshear close to the islands due to the TUTTS presence.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
755. Tazmanian
9:32 AM PDT on June 28, 2008
wait in tell late july then will have some in big to talk about out there
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754. IKE
11:34 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
750. stormdude77 11:34 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
Yeah, WizardApprentice had multiple names, with ''Altestic'' included


That SN is on my banned list too!
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753. pearlandaggie
4:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
the CAtl wave seems to be "threading a needle", so to speak, as it travels along a corridor of lower vertical wind shear...

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752. SpaceThrilla1207
4:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm from Dallas, TX too!
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751. 0741
4:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
741. jphurricane2006 4:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
0741:

the stucture of the wave looks pretty impressive, the SAL will be the limiting factor, im not sure we get anything out of this, but it is worth tracking

i think if nhc donot talk about it is because their not thing worry about no outlook have talk about area
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750. stormdude77
12:31 PM AST on June 28, 2008
Yeah, WizardApprentice had multiple names, with ''Altestic'' included
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749. extreme236
4:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
If the CATL wave keeps gaining latitude its toast, but if it goes west it will be in low shear for a bit longer...it looks like it will run into the TUTT at some point or another.
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748. pearlandaggie
4:33 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
i'm in total agreement, IKE!
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747. IKE
11:32 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
743. Drakoen 11:32 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
738. IKE 4:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
732. extreme236 11:29 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I remember WizardApprentice...he got banned for some reason I forget why, but he was a troll.

I do too...he's still on my banned list. Think he's from Dallas,TX...almost begged for one to hit east Texas last year.

I remember that. Time to update my ignore/ban list.


LOL.
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746. viman
4:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Its beautiful there, we had a blast. Went to Brimstone Fort, Caribelle Batik and took the ferry over to Nevis for the day. Stayed at the Royal St.Kitts Marriott -- very nice. Glad to here your doing well. Keep safe.
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745. FLWeatherFreak91
12:31 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
I think the wave over Africa about 100 miles inland is the one the GFS must be developing. Look at it. It's much better looking than the skeleton in the catl.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
744. IKE
11:31 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
739. SpaceThrilla1207 11:31 AM CDT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
so Drak, does that make it the 19th straight GFS run predicting African development? The GFS is on looney toon steroids.


oh, and looking at the SAL maps...nothing will develop in the CATL/EATL for a LONG LONG time unless the ITCZ moves north and washes out the big SAL barrier...


Good! Great news!
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743. Drakoen
4:31 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
738. IKE 4:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
732. extreme236 11:29 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I remember WizardApprentice...he got banned for some reason I forget why, but he was a troll.

I do too...he's still on my banned list. Think he's from Dallas,TX...almost begged for one to hit east Texas last year.


I remember that. Time to update my ignore/ban list.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
742. pearlandaggie
4:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
lots of shear to the north of the CAtl wave..

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740. Drakoen
4:30 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
735. weathermanwannabe 4:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
BBL........Be nice to each other folks; we have several months to go....Lol


Wait till we start tracking systems lol. It appears people are a little more opinionated this year.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
739. SpaceThrilla1207
4:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
so Drak, does that make it the 19th straight GFS run predicting African development? The GFS is on looney toon steroids.


oh, and looking at the SAL maps...nothing will develop in the CATL/EATL for a LONG LONG time unless the ITCZ moves north and washes out the big SAL barrier...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
738. IKE
11:29 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
732. extreme236 11:29 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
I remember WizardApprentice...he got banned for some reason I forget why, but he was a troll.


I do too...he's still on my banned list. Think he's from Dallas,TX...almost begged for one to hit east Texas last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
737. hurricane23
12:29 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
There is no way the central altantic wave is going to do anything significant as its running into a TUTT near the eastern caribbean.For those who want to know the effects of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough CLICK HERE.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
736. 0741
4:28 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
jp you saw my question?????
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735. weathermanwannabe
12:28 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
BBL........Be nice to each other folks; we have several months to go....Lol
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8712
734. Weather456
12:28 PM AST on June 28, 2008
728. viman 12:26 PM AST on June 28, 2008
Hey everyone, whats up weather456, just got back from st.kitts. Its beautiful there, hated to come back home. Just watching the tropics with everyone else I guess.


hey. I'm doing good. Glad to hear u enjoyed ur stay. :~)
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733. pearlandaggie
4:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
looks like the SAL in front of the CAtl wave may be weakening...

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732. extreme236
4:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
I remember WizardApprentice...he got banned for some reason I forget why, but he was a troll.
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730. Drakoen
4:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
This GFS 12z run is faster than the 06z run with the system of the African coast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
728. viman
4:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hey everyone, whats up weather456, just got back from st.kitts. Its beautiful there, hated to come back home. Just watching the tropics with everyone else I guess.
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727. stoormfury
4:23 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Latest ASCAT pass of the CATL no LLC --open wave

Link
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726. SpaceThrilla1207
4:21 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
It's not an eye JRRP.

JP, why do you have to be so mean to me?


Besides, today is a celebration day for me...This account is officially my longest lasting account! Today just put this account in first place behind "WizardApprentice" last year.
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725. weathermanwannabe
12:22 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
719. stormdude77 12:22 PM EDT on June 28, 2008....Exactly...While it may stay south of the higher shear, the dry air may kill it unless it can build some moisture......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8712
724. FLWeatherFreak91
12:20 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
Wow. Has anyone seen what the CMC wants to do in the Pacific? By the end of the run it has at least 2 more Storms goin'- one of those headed toward the Baja
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
723. hurricane23
12:22 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
Might want to look up the next few days aross south florida as some SAL will push into the area.Nothing suprising here as this event is common this time of the year.No big deal just some hazy skies.

UPDATE...CIMMS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT
SAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE EARLY FRI
MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THIS AS WELL WITH
ONE AREA LOCALLY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER AREA IS NOW SPREADING IN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
WHICH MODELS SUGGEST COULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ...TRACKING ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM AFRICA.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
722. TampaSpin
12:21 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
718. JRRP 12:20 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
711
do you see the eye??


LMAO no eye there..
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721. 0741
4:19 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
705. jphurricane2006 3:54 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
next TWO is at 2pm

the TWO and TWD now come in at the same times
hiii jp how you doing? what your think on CATL?
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720. weathermanwannabe
12:19 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
The Wave we are discussing looks very "wimpy" on the visible satt loops as opposed to the rainbow loop (needs some meat/convection on her bones if she is going to make it)....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8712
719. stormdude77
12:15 PM AST on June 28, 2008
I think the dry airmass is affecting the CATL Twave (look at the visible image, and you'll notice the dry airmass to the NW of the system...

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718. JRRP
4:15 PM GMT on Junio 28, 2008
711
do you see the eye??
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5238
717. Drakoen
4:18 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
714. jphurricane2006 4:18 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
no but if I throw you in there im sure some in here would cheer lol

you can think what you want, but dont be so closed minded, there are times when based on the conditions, development is highly unlikely, like with the GOM and that ULL, but this wave in the CATL isnt one of those cases


Gabby lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
716. Drakoen
4:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
712. Levi32 4:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
703. Drakoen 7:53 AM AKDT on June 28, 2008

Yeah I'm no longer sure which one of those waves is the one to watch.....I'm a little confused why the GFS has been wanting to keep the low nearly stationary just off the coast for up to 48 hours straight without moving.


Going by the 315k potential vorticity it would seem to be the wave at 15E but there is a lack of notable presence. The steering of the African coast is weak 5-10 knots. Possibly why the GFS is so slow with the system; however, the longer it stays around the African coast with those hot waters and upper anticyclonic flow the better chance it has at become a tropical storm.
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715. IKE
11:18 AM CDT on June 28, 2008
713...you don't know that....written in stone?
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713. SpaceThrilla1207
4:12 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
No definates in tropical weather, LMAO...so theoretically if you, JP, jump into the water off your place in florida...does that mean YOU could possibly develop into a TD? LOL.


and Weather456...no LLCC means no development.Next
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712. Levi32
8:08 AM AKDT on June 28, 2008
703. Drakoen 7:53 AM AKDT on June 28, 2008

Yeah I'm no longer sure which one of those waves is the one to watch.....I'm a little confused why the GFS has been wanting to keep the low nearly stationary just off the coast for up to 48 hours straight without moving.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.