Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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862. atmoaggie
6:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Use the ignore feature and dont fan the fools,,, that is a good way to stay out the Drama Club

Exactly, Pat...I would have no clue of the flaming comments here today without the reposting and reactions. Use the button if you cannot resist the urge to respond to the garbage...that is why I use it.
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860. LakeShadow
6:16 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
I guess theres no interest in the E pac, huh?

oh well, y'all have a good wknd.
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859. melly
6:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Space Thrilla.If you would have told me that 6 months ago I would have agreed with you 100%..But in my secret studies I have made a unique discovery.....The consumption on Bud Light, and Bud Light Lime has almost totally eradicated the bird flu virus from the small city I live in here in south Florida.
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857. JRRP
6:07 PM GMT on Junio 28, 2008
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
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855. melly
6:02 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
All I know is that it's hotter than hell here in Lake Worth Florida , and it's not even July yet... I guess I need to buy more Bud Light.

In the words of the great president of NRA:
"Get your stinking paws off me you damn dirty Ape"
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854. stormlvr
5:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
The dogged persistence of the GFS with the feature next week is impressive even a little disconcerting. A major coup for this model if it proves correct or even comes close since the ECMWF is the only other reliable model that hints at a much weaker system. Faced with this kind of forecast challenge a blended approach using the GFS, ECMWF, and climo along with the waves we have already seen should yield a middle of the road idea. Perhaps we are faced with a vigorous tropical wave exiting the coast the middle of next week with a closed low or one soon thereafter and the potential to become classified as a depression at any point in the eastern atlantic. Being a shallower system than depicted by the GFS, movement should be to the west although a movement south of west is possible for a while due to the persistent N-S orientation of the ridge in the CATL. This is likely the first of several waves we will need to monitor as they traverse the atlantic during this MJO pulse.
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853. viman
5:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
nothing mentioned on TWC's Tropical Update about the CATL wave. Guess they feel there's nothing there worth mentioning. Go figure!!
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852. TerraNova
12:48 PM EST on June 28, 2008
Impressive wave but there is no closed surface circulation. Dry air extending west towards the islands will probably act against any attempt at development.

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
851. LakeShadow
5:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
g'day. Checking in to see if theres talk about Boris and Cristina in the E. Pac. These look like fish storms...still they got organized pretty fast and are right behind one another.Anyone?

****hey notice the title of the blog has changed from "Dr.Jeff Masters Tropical Weather Blog" to "Severe Weather Blog" and now its just plain "Weather Blog"...perhaps others are confused that he changes the main forum subject matter to include all weather discussions. Even this blog title is focused on the MidWest floods. Dont know why people get so up in arms that theres talk of things other than tropical weather...esp when theres so little activity in the Atlantic right now.
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850. stoormfury
5:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
The instability in the MDR is not solely the TUTT but a stong upper level low exiting the CONUS which is responsible for the high shear n of 13n



Link
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849. stormdude77
1:43 PM AST on June 28, 2008
The NHC isn't mentioning the CATL Twave because it lacks persistent deep convection (holding together for longer than 12 hours); and the fact that it doesn't even have a closed LLC as yet...
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848. TerraNova
12:35 PM EST on June 28, 2008
Afternoon...

According to the 850mb Vorticity analysis from the new 12z GFS, the area (or part of the disturbance) that it forecasts will eventually emerge from the African coastline and develop into a tropical cyclone exists as an area of positive vorticity somewhere in the vicinity of Ghana. According to EUMETSAT and other imagery there's a large flareup of convective activity in that area. The area of PV and lower heights would indicate that a tropical wave is forming here.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
847. 0741
5:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
no talk about catl wave on outlook
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846. Stormchaser2007
5:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Dang!! 0741 you beat me!!
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845. pearlandaggie
5:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
for Pearland today...LOL

93.0 F / 33.9 C Clear
Heat Index: 116 F / 46 C
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
844. 0741
5:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281734
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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843. pearlandaggie
5:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
i hear ya, press. everyone around here is talking about the weird wind/rain pattens we've been seeing in May/June. usually by the end of June, the GoM is flat as a lake! not this year, though.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
842. pearlandaggie
5:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
838. thanks, but DOH! it gave me an Internal Server Error when i clicked Submit! I will remember that for later.

thanks again.
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841. nash28
5:28 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Figures...

Trpoical ATL is slow, trolls come barging in.
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840. seflagamma
1:26 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
Hi everyone,

appears I missed some trolls which is good; I ignore them anyway.

So the EPac has 2 named storms .. wow... at least our waters are calm for now and hope it stays that way for a few more weeks, please!!!

enjoy your weekend everyone will peek back in when I get a chance later.
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839. presslord
1:27 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
I've mentioned this before...as have others...but all the old captains around here are buzzing about the weirdness of things...not sure what that portends, but I tend to listen closely to those guys and gals....
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838. beell
5:26 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
820.
823.
829

Got to "My Blog" at upper left (don't matter if you don't have one).

Under "Control Panel" on right-hand side of page, select "Modify my profile"

Scroll down to "Comment Filter Level" and select "Show All" from drop down box.

Scroll down to bottom of page and click "Update My Blog Profile" to save changes.

Return to this blog and make sure the comments filter at upper right is also set to "Show All".
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837. pearlandaggie
5:24 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
LOL, press. i know the feeling. weird thing was that we didn't find any kings around the rigs, either.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
836. tornadodude
5:19 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
good afternoon everyone, just thought i'd stop by and check the tropics, but seems like when things are slow, everyone gets a little on edge lol oh well its all good.
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835. presslord
1:22 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
I was offshore at Charleston yesterday...was soupy muggy...the wind was honking from the SE...and the water was choppy....'felt' like something was brewing...but it only got hotter...and hotter...and hotter...
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834. pearlandaggie
5:20 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
832. it's been really rough this june...unseasonably windy. we were off about 12 miles a couple of weeks ago. it starting getting too rough, so we came back in. usually, unless there is a lot of rain, the bluewater starts at 10-12 miles. we never saw bluewater, but the green water wasn't horribly stirred up. couldn't seem to find a weedline, either.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
833. IKE
12:18 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
827. extreme236 12:17 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
814.

LOL and there not pleasant memories either


It's not funny..but why am I giggling???

Stop it IKE!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
832. TampaSpin
1:18 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
825. pearlandaggie 1:15 PM EDT on June 28, 2008

I was i the GOM on Monday about 25 off shore Tampa and the waters are very cloudy.....the West winds is really turning things up.
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831. pearlandaggie
5:17 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
829. same here about your posts....hmmmm....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
830. pearlandaggie
5:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
823. pat, i've never really used that feature. it seems to hide posts by itself. for the most part, i like to read what everyone says regardless if i agree with them or not.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
829. SpaceThrilla1207
5:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Dunno Pearlandaggie...you come up minimized for me too even though you're not on my Ignore list.
827. extreme236
5:15 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
814.

LOL and there not pleasant memories either
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826. Patrap
12:16 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
Best find a Big Boat..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
825. pearlandaggie
5:14 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
pat, looks like its gonna get rough in the GoM! darnit! i was hoping to get in some offshore fishing next week....doh!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
824. HurakanPR
1:04 PM AST on June 28, 2008
hurricane23- Thank you very much for your imput and useful references, i appreciate it.
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823. Patrap
12:14 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
One can filter the posts by using the er,filter on the right
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
822. Patrap
12:13 PM CDT on June 28, 2008

Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA)
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
Sea Surface Temp
SST Anomaly
SST Climatology Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
820. pearlandaggie
5:13 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
so did anyone ever figure out why some folks posts are minimized even though they are not ignored?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
819. Patrap
12:11 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
Global 12 FT Wave Probability Link

EFS Global WAVE Probability Displays - Gulf of Mexico

Gulf of Mexico 4 FT Wave ProbabilityLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
817. SpaceThrilla1207
5:09 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Why would I sign my name after my post? I've never done that.


Anyways Tampa...you play guitar hero 3? Do you play on expert?
816. Weather456
1:07 PM AST on June 28, 2008
806....Its not a tropically exclusive blog, at least not anymore. Many times, Dr. J. Masters post material here pertaining to Global Warming, which I could care less about but I cannot stop anyone from discussing it cuz its not my blog. And read backwards and you'll see what I'm talking about.

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815. Stormchaser2007
5:10 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
.
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814. IKE
12:09 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
236 and eye....brings back memories of the 2007 season!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
813. Patrap
12:08 PM CDT on June 28, 2008
WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules


Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
2. Stay on topic.
3. No monomania.
4. No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
5. Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
8. No spamming.
9. No spamming.
10. Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
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812. TampaSpin
1:08 PM EDT on June 28, 2008
807. SpaceThrilla1207 1:06 PM EDT on June 28, 2008

SpaceThrilla your forgetting to sign your name after your post entry.....lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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