Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1062. beell
5:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Sure nuff Drak.
We have had a minor head-butt or two but look out world, We are in agreement.
j/k
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1061. Drakoen
4:58 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Nice exert beell. The GFS is back on the system and we know what it is now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
1060. Skyepony (Mod)
4:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
A quick look at the news. 2 died in Omaha from severe weathr & the town most likely won't have power for a week.

Fengshen kills 14 so far in S China. & it's flood is ongoing.

California is still smokey & very much on fire.

Winfield, Missori was the latest town to loss the midwest flood battle.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
1059. beell
4:30 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Saw this in mrpuertorico's blog. Thought it interesting. The TUTT moves out of the way for a bit per the GFS.

GFS FORECASTING UPPER
LEVEL WLYS TO LIFT NORTH OF 25 NORTH ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC THIS COMING WEEK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1117 PM AST SAT JUN 28 2008

.UPDATE...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE ERN CARIB AND LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING IS INTERACTING
WITH SAL AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND GREATER HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AT A FEW COASTAL STATIONS SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SW COASTAL PR OBS OF 25-30 KT DUE STRICTLY TO DIURNAL
PROCESSES. THIS LLVL DISTURBANCE CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN IN MIMIC TPW
LOOPS AND HAS A MUCH MORE TROPICAL WAVE LIKE SIGNAL THAN EITHER
WAVE ON EITHER SIDE OF IT PRESENTLY ON THE SURFACE MAPS.
REGARDLESS...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SAL MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT
SUNDAY...LIKELY WITH SIGNIFICANT DUST PER RECENT NOAA AOT
PRODUCTS. STRONG TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES TO
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND IS AIDING IN SPREADING SAL FROM NEAR THE
COAST OF PORTUGAL SOUTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS THE MDR OF THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...AND INTO S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULFMEX.
THIS SCENARIO AND STRONG AEJ SEGMENTS NOT DISSIMILAR TO CONDITIONS
OF LATE JUNE-JULY OF THE PAST TWO SEASONS. GFS FORECASTING UPPER
LEVEL WLYS TO LIFT NORTH OF 25 NORTH ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLC THIS COMING WEEK TO PRODUCE DEEP ELYS
. AT LOWER LEVELS A
WELL ORGANIZED AFRICAN MONSOON GYRE AND TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
EVOLVING...AND GFS IS RESPONDING BY FORECASTING A WELL ORGANIZED
AEW EXITING AFRICA NEXT WEEK...AND HOLDING TOGETHER NICELY FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS MUST BE THE WAVE CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 5W.

.AVIATION....AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. FOR SUNDAY...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ FROM 16-20Z.

&&
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1057. Skyepony (Mod)
4:17 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Was certainly tempted to believe in the rift theory.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
1056. beell
4:05 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
YW Skye. Was not 100% on the what and the why-curious also. I've never seen one. Gosh, you'd have to believe the world was a lovely place if ya did.

sky...it's a rift in the space/time continuum...don't mess with it...

Exactly press. lol
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1055. thunderblogger
4:01 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I sure hope so, spread some of the love this way, we're looking at 10 inch deficit right now. Have a good evening!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1053. Skyepony (Mod)
3:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Ah a Circumhorizontal arc. Makes sense too. The day I saw one, excessive amounts of ice laden cirrus were mentioned by the NWS in the discussion expecting hail. Thanks Beell.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
1052. thunderblogger
3:55 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Well if you live in Houstonian you would get rain at a consistent rate, your not far enough to the south.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1050. Skyepony (Mod)
3:49 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Did you see the rgb loop right before sunset? Looks like the wave tried real hard to get a low spun up in the BOC, went right into MX.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
1049. presslord
3:48 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
sky...it's a rift in the space/time continuum...don't mess with it...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1048. beell
3:48 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Maybe a better link.
Surreal aint it?
Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1047. thunderblogger
3:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
This is rediculous, rain all around except here in south Texas, the GOM is loaded with moisture but nothing is making it on land. Can you say...Drought?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1046. beell
3:42 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Skye,
I think it's a cloudbow.

First link I found.
Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
1045. Skyepony (Mod)
3:38 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
What is this? I saw my 1st one on here in the photos in the last 2 weeks. I saw another this past week looking west, it was low & fairly straight but like 2 in the afternoon & not inline with the sun like sundogs. The shadows in this pic (by jyentz) don't suggest real late in the day either. Odd to never remenber seeing such a long flat rainbow, then 3 in 3 weeks from across the country.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39361
1044. PensacolaBuoy
3:16 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Lowerbama, we're getting your "sideways storm" here in West Pensacola now. Thanks for the warning!
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 395
1043. KoritheMan
3:08 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I'm here, lowerbamagirl. Good evening.

As for the above posts about the tropics being quiet, that is typical for June. From July through at least the middle of October, things should be very active, so don't expect peace for long. Enjoy the quiet while we can, as we'll likely have some worries down the road.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
1042. lowerbamagirl
2:51 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Well, what do you know? I lurk all day, everyday, off and on, and rarely post. When I do, everyone is asleep!
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
1041. lowerbamagirl
2:46 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Good evening all! Update from rural Elberta, Alabama (AL/FL border). We are having quite a show tonight. Finally we are getting the rain with the storm. We have been having tremendous lightning and thunder with no rain for the last several days. Tonight we have what my kids call "sideways" rain!
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 198
1040. atmoaggie
2:12 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1033: Intuition works, too! Here we just have to remember the heat content of the oceans. No piddilin little atmospheric thing is going to pull a measurable amount of heat out of the ocean. ;^)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1039. conchygirl
2:08 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
nite pearl!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1038. pearlandaggie
2:07 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
well, folks, i'm out for the evening. take it easy and have a good one!

/lurking ON
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1037. conchygirl
2:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
We are fortunate that you had those periods of rest so that you can now concentrate on the tropics.

The bewitching hour is nearing! And the ATL tropics looking ok for now.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1036. pearlandaggie
2:02 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
250m resolution photo of Rita...awesome!

Link
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1035. Patrap
2:01 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I slept in 77 and took a nap in 2005
SO Im good to go for now.

LOL

I rarely post past 11pm CST or before 8am.
Cept during a threat
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1034. conchygirl
1:53 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Patrap:
Excellent information! Do you ever sleep!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1033. pearlandaggie
1:50 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
that's what i thought. however, with the amount of evaporation going on, i would have thought evaporative cooling would have played a larger part. just goes to show that intuition is no substitute for data.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1032. Patrap
1:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Mixing is the Dominant factor..due to the Upwelling of cooler sst's from Below.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1031. Patrap
1:47 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1030. pearlandaggie
1:41 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
hey, pat, are the cold wakes primarily from mixing or heat of vaporization?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1029. stormdude77
1:36 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
RasBongo...the CMC is not considered one of the ''reliable models'' (you should have seen it last year), (the GFS, UKMET and the NOGAPS are the more reliable models. However, if the CMC is showing develop...it should not always be discounted...
1028. RasBongo
1:35 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I like to see how the whole thing work from aboveLink

at 24 images animation.

The West Africa wave is indeed impressive
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1027. pearlandaggie
1:32 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Rita's hot towers....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1026. Patrap
1:32 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Hurricane-Induced Sea Surface Cooling Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1025. pearlandaggie
1:31 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Rita
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1024. Stormchaser2007
1:31 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Soon...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1023. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
ESL Rita page Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1022. pearlandaggie
1:28 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
pat, have you seen the superhigh resolution image of Rita where you can zoom into the eye. THAT was a really cool picture. i think it was like 40MB in size!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1021. NC0WX0Man
1:27 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
can anyone tell me when the "impressive" wave over Africa right now is suppose to hit the ocean?
1020. Patrap
1:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
ESL Katrina MODIS Image.
Large Link


Inland,Later.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1019. RasBongo
1:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
And another system is forecast to lick the US East Coast.

Summa gwaan 2 B hat!
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1018. pearlandaggie
1:25 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
the 27 Catalina was a good boat. i'm just not much of a sailor....i like to fish too much. we inherited the boat and kept it for a couple of years....the problem was that the water levels in Clear Lake tend to be shallow during the nicest parts of the year to go sailing, so you get stuck in the mud a LOT. kind of a PIA, if you know what i mean.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1017. pearlandaggie
1:24 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1013. i'm cool with fish storms! i'll be the first to admit the awesome spectacle of tropical cyclones, especially when you find out that a storm like Katrina will dissipate something on the order of 200 Terawatts of energy during it's lifetime. the TOTAL human power consumption in 2000 was something like 13.5 Terawatts! totally unbelieveable. however, with that type of power comes the potential for a horrible human toll.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1016. conchygirl
1:23 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Yes, pray for the fish storms and they are interesting to watch as well!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1015. RasBongo
1:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Good night All.

Is CMC a reliable model? More than GFS?

If yes, then according to it we will have 3 systems to watch in the ATL at 144 H

Check linkLink

The first one, the current system in CATL is forecast around Jahmekya in a week time.

RAAASS!

Mi a go haffi buy wata and candel soon.

Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1014. conchygirl
1:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Ah, the 27 Cata---we used to sail them in San Diego and they are excellent boats!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1013. Drakoen
1:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1009. pearlandaggie 1:18 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1008. amen! call me a downcaster if you must, but i'm not one for seeing storms form :)


I don't mind storms forming as long as they all go out to sea like Cristina and Boris. They make for a good study regardless of them not affecting land.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
1012. pearlandaggie
1:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1010. i heard that! i bet all islanders are NOT big fans of hurricanes!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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