Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1112. SpaceThrilla1207
1:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
So the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are saying that the potential tropical storm wave it is the african wave BEHIND the high amplitude wave at 10W, not the wave at 10W?
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1111. SpaceThrilla1207
1:03 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
HMMMMMMMMM.......Weren't those 3 models the same 3 models that developed the African wave that became Dean well before he made it off Africa???????????

DEAN's little sister bertha anyone???
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1110. TampaSpin
8:54 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1108. leftovers 8:48 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

Don't know where you live at but, at my address on my street something dusty is falling out of the sky and it is very extremely hazy...maybe you would like to wash some dust off cars daily......lol
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1109. TampaSpin
8:49 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1108. leftovers 8:48 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
No dust now Fl.. It would not be raining everyday.


huh
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1107. NC0WX0Man
12:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I really got you now Tampa Spin and that site helped even more thanks again.
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1106. morningmisty
12:35 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Hey Tampspin,

I live in St. Pete, FL. I heard about the African Dust from a post from a USF scientist and although I didn't notice the dust on the cars the link he posted showed a graph that showed distribution of SAL(correcat?) and I wondered if I could find a site online with that kind of info.

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1105. TampaSpin
8:37 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
The CAtlt has no chance to develop. It is about to run into very high Shear it is done....IMO
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1104. Weather456
8:37 AM AST on June 29, 2008
Good Morning, what a difference 12 hrs make. Three global models now develop a system off the African coast. The ECMWF, GFS and CMC. That is some decent model consensus there.
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1103. stoormfury
12:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
yes IKE the catl wave is really trying to make a comeback. the structure seems to be improving with every frame. the wave is under 5knot wind shear and is moving weast into an area which is favourable until the islands. that is south of 11deg n. there is destructive shear above 12deg n and the wave stands a chance if were to contnue moving west. at the speed of 15 mph the system would not be in the vicinity of the islands not until 4days time . by then the shear according to the models should relax a bit thereby allowing the system to survive a little longer
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1102. TampaSpin
8:31 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1099. NC0WX0Man 8:31 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Freely moving objects on the surface of the Earth experience a Coriolis force, and appear to veer to the right in the northern hemisphere, and to the left in the southern. Movements of air in the atmosphere and water in the ocean are notable examples of this behavior: rather than flowing directly from areas of high pressure to low pressure, as they would on a non-rotating planet, winds and currents tend to flow to the right (left) of this direction north (south) of the equator. This effect is responsible for the rotation of large cyclones.
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1100. TampaSpin
8:29 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1097. morningmisty 8:28 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

Morningmisty i don't know the amount falling in Tampa but, my cars are covered....i really can't remember this much ever in the 25 years living in Florida....maybe there has been more times greater but, i don't recall it.
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1099. NC0WX0Man
12:26 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
So the environment (Atlantic Ocean) is rotating and the storm moving in a straight line makes the illusion the object (cyclone) is rotating but it's not?
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1098. IKE
7:30 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Current SAL....

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1097. morningmisty
12:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Good morning all,

We had some hazy air last Thurs and Friday due to African dust in atmos, according to a CMS scientist who posted the info. Does anyone have a link that would give me current measurements of the African dust in atmos. Thanks,

morningmisty
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1096. TampaSpin
8:24 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1094. NC0WX0Man 8:23 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

I had to edit it i messed up......so take another look.
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1095. IKE
7:23 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
CATL wave making a comeback?

Link
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1094. NC0WX0Man
12:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Thanks Tampa Spin that did help alot.
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1093. TampaSpin
8:16 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1092. NC0WX0Man 8:15 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
can someone please explain in layman terms the Coriolis Effect to me?

Its a point of reference that is still in motion with the environment rotating and objects within the enviornmental move in a straight line appear to rotate making an illusion......i hope i explained it the best i could.
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1092. NC0WX0Man
12:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
can someone please explain in layman terms the Coriolis Effect to me?
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1091. TampaSpin
8:14 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Bye the way good morning everyone.
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1090. TampaSpin
8:10 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1087. IKE 8:01 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

Ike i see no chance of development the rest of the season. Conditions appear to favorable for that to occurr......signed WU Bloggers......ROFLMAO
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1089. NC0WX0Man
12:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
just thought this was interesteing and want to share what I found on wikipedia:

In July 2000 alone, nearly 8 million tons of dust from Africa's Sahara desert reached as far west as Puerto Rico. "If you figure that a pickup truck weighs 1 metric ton, that dust weighed as much as 8 million pickups," says NASA aerosol researcher Dr. Peter Colarco from the Goddard Space Flight Center.
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1088. IKE
7:01 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
CATL wave....

"A tropical wave is along 40w S of 13n moving W near 10-15 kt. A
broad area of low-mid level circulation is evident on satellite
imagery from 7n-12n between 36w-41w. Scattered moderate
convection is from 6n-11n between 36w-45w.".......

from the 8:05 am discussion......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1087. IKE
6:58 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1084. sporteguy03 6:38 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Ike,
You are always here, you watch every GFS run, the track of the GFS is interesting westcasting close to SE USA...shhh don't want to be too loud



Believers vs. the non-believers....it'll form vs. it won't form...the dry-air will kill it vs. it won't kill it.

Also...the "it's going to hit Florida" crowd will emerge...stormkat will say it has zero chance...it's a slow year...Dr. Gray will revise his numbers down.....


Dr. Masters blog! LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1086. NC0WX0Man
11:57 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
And good morning to everyone.
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1085. NC0WX0Man
11:55 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Has the large African wave hit ocean yet? A wave has to maintain itself over water for at least 12 hrs. right? I heard that in this blog and want to make sure that is right.
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1084. sporteguy03
11:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Ike,
You are always here, you watch every GFS run, the track of the GFS is interesting westcasting close to SE USA...shhh don't want to be too loud
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
1083. IKE
6:17 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
CATL wave is under 5 knots of shear...but to it's north/NW about 600 miles...50-60 knots......

Caribbean Shear Rules!
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1082. IKE
6:15 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
00Z UKMET....

Link
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1081. stoormfury
11:14 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
morning,
nice wave coming off the african coast. is the catl wave trying to refire? Be back later to analyse the tropics today
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1080. IKE
6:13 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
The CMC agrees with the GFS....

System Coming further West???
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1079. IKE
6:09 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Why do I believe the GFS?

The 00Z ECMWF has a small system coming off of the Yucatan about the same time frame......

Link
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1078. IKE
6:07 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1077. sporteguy03 6:04 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Ike,
You better look at the 06z GFS Link


I was just fixing to post that. How do you know I'm on here? Amazing? You know me too well!!!!!LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Notice the GFS spins up a system off of Africa...but has delayed it until next Friday.

It also spins up a small system off of the north-central GOM next Sunday/Monday....
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1077. sporteguy03
11:03 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Ike,
You better look at the 06z GFS Link
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1076. wxpaladin
10:26 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Hello all. Good morning from Baton Rouge. The TW's look nice esp the one that is now exitting the african coast. The other wave looks like it will not be a factor for the US as of now unless the large pockets of dry air move out of its way.

See this link: Link
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1075. KoritheMan
10:13 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I hope it holds convection... (crosses fingers)

Me too. I want another storm to watch in the Atlantic. Note to all: I'm not destructioncasting, wishcasting, or anything of the sort. Actually, I would like for it to be a fish storm if we do get development from it. And the further east it develops (like the GFS predicts), the more likely it is to be one.
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1074. MasterForecaster
9:39 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
SpaceThrilla I think your the only one whos up
! When everyone see's this beast of a thing come off africa this blog is gonna go crazy lol....I hope it holds convection... (crosses fingers)
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1073. SpaceThrilla1207
9:07 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
So how is our African wave doing this morning?

I gues I'm the only one who cares.
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1072. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:44 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
06:00 AM UTC JUNE 29 2008
====================================

A broad area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves north-northwest.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
=================================
LOW (<25%)
MEDIUM (25-50%)

Note:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Boris and Tropical Storm Cristina located south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
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1071. SpaceThrilla1207
7:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
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1070. SpaceThrilla1207
7:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
WOW...I'd say a 60% chance of becoming TS Bertha. Yes, we have to wait until it hits the water to see if it holds convection...but the water is hot UNLIKE LAST YEAR across the EATL and the shear is low enough...I predict 50-60 mph tropical storm and then it will depend if the shear is low enough once it hits the Caribbean. If the shear relaxes (and the death of the TUTT) like it is forecasted to do by several models, then we just might see a hurricane. If it doesn't relax we'll have a low end tropical storm or depression. It's all wait and see it this point. There's still time for it to just dissipate over Africa. Hope I didn't jinx it...meh.


As for the CATL wave...not much hope...Diurnal Max helping out, but the dry air is too much, and it doesn't even look all that good even at this hour. I say 2% chance for development.
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1069. JLPR
6:22 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
indeed its huge! =P
Google Earth view:
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1068. weatherblog
6:03 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
I think we will have to watch this wave. Good night all!
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1067. Patrap
12:40 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link


More GOES Atmospheric Products Link
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1066. Tazmanian
10:25 PM PDT on June 28, 2008
well we can all say RIP to CRISTINA the storm that evere one like looks like CRISTINA this about had it look for TD CRISTINA in the AM my forcast
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1065. beell
5:23 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
1057.
Was certainly tempted to believe in the rift theory.

Even funnier!
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1064. weatherblog
5:19 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
The wave the GFS looks like it wants to develop may, indeed, have favorable conditions as it travels through the CATL into the caribbean. This would be the first wave to do so...comments?
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1063. Stormchaser2007
5:21 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Oh god thats big!

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1062. beell
5:04 AM GMT on June 29, 2008
Sure nuff Drak.
We have had a minor head-butt or two but look out world, We are in agreement.
j/k
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.