Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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2012. 69Viking
11:56 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1985. jphurricane2006

LMAO!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
2011. Drakoen
4:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
What's interesting is the steering currents of the long range GFS. The scenario is almost like with August-September of 2004 with the storm getting pulled to the north then getting sent back to the west.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2010. kmanislander
5:00 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
If this wave comes off and does not develop there will be a depression on this blog. That is my forecast

LOL
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2009. captainhunter
4:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
2001. cchsweatherman 4:57 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Responding to everyone's comments regarding my complete dismissal of the Bay of Campeche activity, I just don't see anything developing down there.


Thanks CCHS.
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2008. 786
4:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
GOM blob: 30%
CATL: 75%
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
2007. Weather456
12:59 PM AST on June 30, 2008
2004. Drak....thats what I thought. Thanks for the shed of light.
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2006. cchsweatherman
12:58 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
Just wanted to add my reasoning as to why I have no concern for the activity in the Bay of Campeche. Wind shear does not support tropical development there and its close proximity to land does not help much. We have seen so many spins develop with convective bursts then just fall apart there.
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2005. stormlvr
4:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The challenge is to beat "climo". Climo is easy and makes for lazy forecasters IMO
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2004. Drakoen
4:57 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1987. Weather456 4:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
If memory serves me right, someone or someones said Arthur wasnt suppose to develop until July. Now why should we listen this time around? I dont even think Arthur had this much model support, stand to be corrected.


Arthur didn't have this much model at least intially.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
2003. IpswichWeatherCenter
4:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1997.

that is ts/hurricane??? 02e
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2002. StLucieHurricane
4:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Fireworks may not the be only thing residents will want to keep an eye out for this week.

Conditions in the Atlantic Ocean are conducive for a tropical storm to form as early as this weekend in the middle to eastern section of the Atlantic, said Tony Carper of the Indian River County Emergency Operations Center. It would be a rare occurrence for early July, he said. Just 11 storms have ever formed in that area of the Atlantic between July 1 and July 15 in the last 150 years, Carper said.

Regardless of the possible tropical activity, the National Weather Service is calling for the possibility of rain every day this week, typical for the summer months.

The highest chance of rain comes in the beginning of the week, with a 50 percent chance of precipitation Monday through Wednesday. Most showers and thunderstorms should sweep across the Treasure Coast in the afternoon.

The rain possibility slightly decreases on Thursday and Friday, Independence Day, to 30 percent.

The temperature should remain steady in the upper 80s during the day and low 70s at night.

TCPALM staff report
Originally published 06:19 a.m., June 30, 2008
Updated 11:55 a.m., June 30, 2008

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2001. cchsweatherman
12:52 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
Responding to everyone's comments regarding my complete dismissal of the Bay of Campeche activity, I just don't see anything developing down there.
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2000. Drakoen
4:56 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1990. jphurricane2006 4:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Drak, does that say that the 12Z GFS has the low on July 2nd?


Yep.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
1999. IpswichWeatherCenter
4:54 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Sorry guys... those two images where out of date...

but look at these:

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1998. 69Viking
11:52 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1984. OUSHAWN

That's the same impression I got looking at the visible satellite. Time will tell I guess especially if the shear drops.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
1996. IKE
11:55 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1994. philliesrock 11:55 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1988.

GOM blob: 0%
African wave: 75%


That's probably about right.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1995. 786
4:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The last two years have been breaking records, everything seems to be at a record high or a record low(I wonder what kind of records we have now)! I think from now on, going forward expect the unexpected
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
1994. philliesrock
12:54 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
1988.

GOM blob: 0%
African wave: 75%
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1993. captainhunter
4:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I looked and thought I saw a spin right on the coast and the storms are being sheared off to the east of that circulation.

I thought I was seeing that on the last loop. Has the buoy updated yet?
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1992. IpswichWeatherCenter
4:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Infact....



we have an eye (=
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1989. IpswichWeatherCenter
4:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008


looks like its trying to form an eye... (=
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1988. aroughleague172
4:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
GOM Blob - 2%


African Wave - 20%



What are YOUR % opinions, bloggers?
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1987. Weather456
12:43 PM AST on June 30, 2008
If memory serves me right, someone or someones said Arthur wasnt suppose to develop until July. Now why should we listen this time around? I dont even think Arthur had this much model support, stand to be corrected.
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1986. Drakoen
4:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
12z GFS:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
1984. OUSHAWN
4:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Something does look to be going on in the BOC. I think there is still a little too much shear right now. I looked and thought I saw a spin right on the coast and the storms are being sheared off to the east of that circulation. Cam someone check it out and verify if I'm seeing this correctly please. Anytime you see that "comma" shape to the clouds and storms over that very warm water of the BOC is makes you start looking.
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1983. 69Viking
11:50 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1978. Buhdog

The Florida fireworks are weak, Alabama has the good stuff!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
1981. txalwaysprepared
4:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Patrap - Good to know!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1980. 786
4:44 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I think climatology is valid in a world that doesn't change much, a world that doesn't react to everchanging and unpredictable forces. We really cannot predict anything for certain, the past cannot clearly predict the future and "climatology" doesn't take ALL surrounding factors in.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
1977. 69Viking
11:47 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1969. DestinJeff

I love how the downcasters (leftovers) make a comment with nothing to back why they think that way. Reminds me of Trolls who make comments just to stir everyone up.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
1976. Drakoen
4:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1969. DestinJeff 4:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I enjoy reading both the ones that "downcast" as well as "wishcast". After several months/years, you really get to anticipate what certain bloggers will say.

A lot like our two-party political system, a lot of people will fall right on the party line, come hell or high water. Bloggers do the same, and is comical to some degree.


lol. You noticed too...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
1975. IpswichWeatherCenter
4:45 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
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1974. captainhunter
4:45 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
So CCHS...Had a chance to look at our BOC feature?
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1973. 69Viking
11:44 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
1965. Patrap

I'm with ya Patrap, time to make run across the border into Alabama!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3055
1972. Patrap
11:45 AM CDT on June 30, 2008
That was just a metaphor..
of course I will be around during a threat.

My Primary Interest is Landfall and aftereffects. Thats when the Human element enters big time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
1970. philliesrock
12:44 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
1964. It's because the TWO is written by real NHC mets, and we value their opinion.
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1968. txalwaysprepared
4:42 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1956 Patrap
Then the serious poster's will go back to their respective blogs and laugh till November.


I hope not. I depend on y'all for more detailed information.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1963. 786
4:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Chilllll...this is a blog where everyone can have an opinion....just cause some people don't think a cyclone will occur doesn't make them any kind of 'caster. Don't forget the NHC declared an invest in June which didn't even last a full 24 hrs. I think we will have development but there is a chance we won't
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910
1962. philliesrock
12:35 PM EDT on June 30, 2008
The latest GFS holds the storm together pretty well, unlike previous runs. Today's model runs should be very interesting.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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