Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1261. pearlandaggie
4:07 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Pearland heat index:

Heat Index: 117 °F / 47 °C

it's a dry heat, man!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1260. Patrap
11:06 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Thats about all us spectators can do JFV. Watch and wait.

But take the added time to Prepare for a Major Hit.
One can always tweak ones own plan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1259. thelmores
4:06 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
102f forecast High for Boise!

Dog days are here..... middle of the day is nap time! LOL
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1257. Tazmanian
9:06 AM PDT on June 29, 2008
96E.INVEST is on the navy site
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1255. Patrap
11:05 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1254. philliesrock
12:05 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
The GFS is out to 96 hours and shows a weak low.
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1253. thelmores
4:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I agree Pat.... with those eddy's in the gulf, and warm waters in the Caribbean....
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1252. IKE
11:05 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1250. JFV 11:03 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Hey IKE, how far is the latest GFS run already bud?


78 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1249. Patrap
10:59 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Well..the forecast calls for nada thru the 96 hr period.

I dont get a interest in anything till we see an actual invest declared.

Nothing out there now.

But the end of June can be explosive a lot closer to Home.

Thats where & when you usually see some action.
Not Africa.

2005 July,early.Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1248. IKE
11:02 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1247. pearlandaggie
3:58 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
i guess i had better watch that attitude before i get called a denialist again! LMAO
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1245. pearlandaggie
3:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
i'll put my money on option

ZZ: Too DAYUM early to tell and TOO LITTLE data to make a guesstimate.

LOL

and, no, model output is NOT data....lol
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1244. Patrap
10:54 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
1243. Nolehead
3:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
woohoo, more rain!! we sure need it over in the panhandle!!
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1242. IKE
10:53 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Statement as of 10:50 AM CDT on June 29, 2008

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

large part of southern Alabama
large part of Florida Panhandle
southwest Georgia
parts of southeast Mississippi
coastal waters

Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1050 am until 600
PM CDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest
of Pine belt Mississippi to 20 miles northeast of Valdosta
Georgia. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou7).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... thunderstorms will increase rapidly in a very moist and
unstable environment across the watch. With 20-30kt of low/mid
level flow and MLCAPES aoa 2500... damaging winds will become the
primary threat as cold pools develop in forward propagating clusters
of severe thunderstorms.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 27030.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1241. thelmores
3:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I didn't consider Arthur to be an Atlantic storm..... but certainly not worth arguing.......
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1240. Orcasystems
3:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I will take "D"
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1239. NorthxCakalaky
3:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
A
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1238. eye
3:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
the double barrell high pressure systems in the S Atlantic is stretching iy out and slinging it in the mid atlantic.Double Barrell High
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1237. thelmores
3:39 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I personally don't think "any" of the models do a good job of predicting weather which is either still on, or just off the west coast of Africa.

I look at the at this point as simply "guesstimates".....

guess we will see what the next couple days show....
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1236. TerraNova
3:44 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1st Atlantic storm of the year?? Guess we will see.....

Don't forget Arthur! Bertha is the next name on the list.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1235. weathersp
11:41 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Spacethriller.

Dr.M had a blog about personal forcasting before storms in a blog about 4 months ago.'

Its a good read.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=922&tstamp=200804
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1234. SpaceThrilla1207
3:40 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Actually TPM, it will be the 2nd storm of the year not the first if it develops.


Also...can someone please tell me WHICH BLOODY WAVE ON AFRICA is it that the models predict to develop? I've asked that a billion times today and have yet to get a response.
1233. BahaHurican
11:33 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hey, let's talk about weather and not wx personalities, please.

[Besides, telling someone on a wx blog to get a life when u are a member of the same blog seems a bit hypocritical to me.]

The thing I am noticing about the AB high now is that it seems pretty "solid". Most lows are just rolling around to the top of it, not pushing it back into the ATL as much as they were even 2-3 weeks ago. Look at the map at 1203 again to see what I mean. If the CV systems that roll off next month don't "split the high" around 40-50W, we could see storms that browbeat the Bahamas and/or N Antillies, then either recurve up along the East coast or head for the TX/LA border.
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1232. thelmores
3:39 PM GMT on June 29, 2008


seems all eyes are focused eastward.....

1st Atlantic storm of the year?? Guess we will see.....
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1231. SpaceThrilla1207
3:36 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Keep in mind that I'm a pretty accurate model myself...I correctly predicted Arthur and the death of the CATL wave yesterday.


Also, the M8B model sayed "Outlook Not So Good" when I asked it if the African wave would develop...combined with the NOGAPS that's four different models against the African wave's development.
1230. weathersp
11:34 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
hurricanechaser2006 is usually good around here. Wonder what ticked him off..
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1229. SpaceThrilla1207
3:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Current Tally:


SpaceThrilla - Option A

JFV and Nolehead - Option Z


Crow Pot - 3
1228. stormlvr
3:31 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1218. BahaHurican 3:31 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1214. stormlvr 11:27 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

Morning Baha, its the front off the coast that will dissipate on that map.

Too right u are! Comment modified. I keep looking at that map and thinking if this setup remains more or less in place we could see some rough times across the Caribbean and W coast FL . . .

Yep, still looks like an active season with an increased risk of landfalling storms.
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1227. IKE
10:33 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
12Z GFS...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1225. weathersp
11:32 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Space Thriller.

One months worth of gas after a major hurricane in the gulf that Hurricane Laura will be at least a cat.3

Laura is my mothers name and like she weather too. But when she gets angry.. Watch out!
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1224. sporteguy03
3:31 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
JFV,
It was not Ike who said that about Drak it was a troll, they were causing issues yesterday.
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1222. IKE
10:32 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1221. SpaceThrilla1207 10:32 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
yeah...hurricanechaser2006 was being a douchebag yesterday. He was being mean to Drak...I hope he got banned.


Yeah..that's who it was.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1220. IKE
10:30 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1217. JFV 10:30 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Ike, come on now bud, please dont say that about that good old soul!


I didn't say it...someone else teased him in that manner.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1219. weathersp
11:30 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1217. JFV 11:30 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
Ike, come on now bud, please dont say that about that good old soul!


That helps too..LOL J/K
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1218. BahaHurican
11:28 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
1214. stormlvr 11:27 AM EDT on June 29, 2008

Morning Baha, its the front off the coast that will dissipate on that map.


Too right u are! Comment modified. I keep looking at that map and thinking if this setup remains more or less in place we could see some rough times across the Caribbean and W coast FL . . .
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1216. SpaceThrilla1207
3:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1,000 dollar call on Z for Nole head. Raising the crow pot to 2 crows per person who is wrong.

Anyone want to put some fake cash in on any letter? JFV?
1215. weathersp
11:26 AM EDT on June 29, 2008
What worries me is the upcoming situation in the gulf where a area of High pressure about 1018mb that all models have been setting up and if this system rides around the BH then its gonna create a tunnel for this CV system to push right up the Mid-Atl CONUS states. If it gets that far.
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1214. stormlvr
3:24 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1203. BahaHurican 3:20 PM GMT on June 29, 2008

Morning Baha, its the front off the coast that will dissipate on that map.
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1212. IKE
10:25 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
1210. JFV 10:25 AM CDT on June 29, 2008
Where's Drak our voice of reason when we need him!!!


Someone tried to run him off yesterday..... told him he spent too much time on here and needed a "life".
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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