Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1362. HurricaneGeek
2:16 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Always refer back to post 1335, JFV, if you have to! Exiting stuff but let's wait and see it happen...
=) it's cool.
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1359. Drakoen
6:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1356. JFV 6:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I see, so it wouldn't it pose a threat to the USA, the way your seeing it's future steering currents?


Too early to tell lol. Its still inland over Africa.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1358. HurricaneGeek
2:12 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
JFV, as a general rule, the stronger the system is, the more prone it is to the, for example, steering currents.
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1357. eye
6:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Dude, it is still over Africa, Drak doesnt have a crystal ball for 3 weeks out...and it hasnt even developed!
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1355. Drakoen
6:03 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1353. JFV 6:02 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Drak, if it were to form, where would it go bud?


West or WNW through the tropical Atlantic under high pressure steering. If it gets north of 20N it's going out to sea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1352. JRRP
5:56 PM GMT on Junio 29, 2008
yo hable español por que otra persona hablo español si no no lo hubieera hecho
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1349. stoormfury
5:57 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
ASCAT PASS OF CATL WAVE

Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
1347. Drakoen
5:56 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1345. HurricaneGeek 5:56 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1343. he did post 1340 lol


lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1346. NorthxCakalaky
5:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Severe Thunderstorm watch from N.C to F.L and west of F.L.
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1345. HurricaneGeek
1:55 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1343. he did post 1340 lol
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1344. HurricaneGeek
1:53 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Yo puedo hablar español =)
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1342. sarepa
5:53 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
aqui en santo domingo esta bien nublado
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1341. BahaHurican
1:51 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
NO hay nada que dice que no se puede hablar español aqui . . .

Who said we couldn't speak spanish here? Sometimes that's the language people in the know (i. e. resident in Cuba, DR, PR, etc.) are speaking.
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1340. Drakoen
5:51 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Satellite imagery from NRL Monterey Satellite Photos and 850mb vorticity show that an area of low pressure is forming over extreme eastern Guinea over Western Africa moving slowly to the west as the flow at the 700-850hpa steering layer is 5-10 knots. This area of vorticity is also supported low level wind reports over Western Africa. The system lacks organized deep convection with most of the action on the southern portion of the wave axis which is probably from the upper level East north easterlies around an upper level high centered at around 12N 6W also this may be from a dry mid level low pressure system over the CV islands which is clearing some of the SAL out ahead of the system. RAMSDIS water vapor imagery shows that the overall environment is moist. The wave is scheduled to move of the African coast in 36-48 hrs which is the consensus among the latest 12z runs so far. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC develop the system and take it out in the tropical atlantic. The UKMET model shows a brief window of opportunity for the wave before becoming absorbed by the flow of the aforementioned mid level system over the CV islands. The NOGAPS model does not do much with the system at best a closed mid level system at 700mb. We'll still have to wait and see what happens when the wave comes of the African coast before jumping to conclusions.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
1339. BahaHurican
1:49 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hey, I just saw the time! Gotta run - mtg at 2 pm. . . .

I'll check in after 6 EDT . . .

Have fun, ya'll!
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1337. BahaHurican
1:44 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1332. JRRP 1:40 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1318
Esta lloviendo alla por la romana??


y ¿porque estas en La Romana? de vacaciones?
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1335. HurricaneGeek
1:42 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1333.
I was thinking, though that the storm was forecasted to move out to sea. But, we must wait and see what happens.... at least until it gets invest status, or even if it forms at all. Patience is a virtue =)
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1332. JRRP
5:34 PM GMT on Junio 29, 2008
1318
Esta lloviendo alla por la romana??
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1331. hurricane23
1:37 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Climatology is againest anything significant in all honesty but we'll see were we are when it gets further west in the tropical atlantic.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
1330. HurricaneGeek
1:37 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Good afternoon everybody! I'll just be lurking for a little bit but, the time is getting close, very interesting and FUN to watch unfold! =)
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1328. hurricane23
1:32 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
View of 12z CMC 144hrs...

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
1326. sporteguy03
5:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
How is it dreaded JFV?
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1325. philliesrock
5:32 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I think the GFS will continue to go off and on with this storm until 48 hours...and that is when each run of the GFS will show a strong tropical storm at around 40W. The NOGAPS will never even develop anything; so pay no attention to it.
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1324. sporteguy03
5:32 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1320. JFV 5:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I'm just patiently waiting for the cap to blow off the Atlantic Basin, just like you folks are as well!


I think the cap blew off the blog yesterday.
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1322. Stormchaser2007
5:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
The wave that everyones watching....(lower part of the image).

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1321. hurricane23
1:31 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Here is a view of the 12z GFS....

Weaker in this run and takes what ever is left out to sea.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
1319. Stormchaser2007
5:29 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Moderate tropical storm.....

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1318. FLWeatherFreak91
1:29 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Very windy here in Dominican Republic

Estoy in La Romana and yes it is very ventoso!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3625
1316. BahaHurican
1:27 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hey, 23. This 1st week of July is when most of us have been thinking we MIGHT see some action from the ATL. I still don't expect anything serious before the final decade of the month, but with MJO on the upswing in the area there is an increased potential to be seen.
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1314. Stormchaser2007
5:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Hello JFV, How are you!
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1312. hurricane23
1:25 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1307. BahaHurican 1:24 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hey Drak. Thoughts on the upcoming week in the ATL?

Interesting....

Lastest CMC is pretty aggressive with wave.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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