Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1412. HurricaneGeek
4:26 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1410. That kinda reminds me of. "When are we going to have the birth of Bertha?" LOL
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1411. K8eCane
8:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
good afternoon all

eye agreed
spanish blog is fine but dont intrude on this one please
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1410. pearlandaggie
8:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
too bad the next wave that develops in the EPac won't be named Doris....then we would have Boris and Doris! i guess with the current naming convention, we will NEVER see Boris and Doris :(
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1409. eye
8:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
translate it into spanish and put it in your own blog...it is rather annoying to have spanish conversations in this blog since the vast majority dont understand what you are saying and it is kinda rude.
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1408. HurakanPR
3:56 PM AST on June 29, 2008
It woudn't be a bad idea to have an spanish tropical blog, for almost 300 millions spanish speaking people in the Caribbean Mexico, Central Americ (In the greatter antilles alone there are about 25 millions). We are at risk of tropical systems every year as well.
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1407. presslord
4:09 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
I've got a 200 yr old grand oak layin in a gazillion pieces in my yard....somethin ugly must have passed overhead....
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1406. NorthxCakalaky
8:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
06/29/2008 0352 PM

5 miles NE of mount pleasan, Charleston County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


Public reported quarter size hail. Sighted possible
funnel cloud.


Weatherunderground was showing >3.oo of rain per hour.
1405. presslord
4:02 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
yea North...sumpin' just blew down an oak in my front yard.....
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1404. Drakoen
7:58 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Cimss 850mb vorticity 18z:
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1403. NorthxCakalaky
7:51 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Statement as of 3:44 PM EDT on June 29, 2008


The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
south central Berkeley County in southeast South Carolina...
central Charleston County in southeast South Carolina...

* until 415 PM EDT

* at 339 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near west
Ashley... or about over Charleston... moving east at 32 mph.

* Some locations in or near the path of the storm include...
Charleston... west Ashley...
Mount Pleasant... Daniel Island...
Isle of Palms... Cainhoy...
Cainhoy...

Funnel clouds have been reported by the public with this
thunderstorm complex in both west Ashley and North Charleston.

A tornado may form at any time. Take cover now. Abandon Mobile homes
and vehicles. Move to an interior room or hallway on the lowest
floor. Stay away from windows.

To report severe weather such as hail... downed trees... limbs... and
power lines... please contact the Charleston National Weather Service
toll free at 1-888-383-2024.

Lat... Lon 3262 8001 3286 8011 3297 7976 3282 7971
3276 7980 3275 7986 3272 7986
time... Mot... loc 1944z 252deg 28kt 3280 7996




1402. rainraingoaway
1:49 PM CST on June 29, 2008
Good afternoon all!! Had a wonderful time camping with the family! Wonderful weather...just one little sprinkle on us.

Wow...gone for 4 days and back to Boris, Cristina and #96! You all have had lots to talk about.

Gosh, and more rain for Missouri. So awful.
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1401. Tazmanian
12:27 PM PDT on June 29, 2008
heh 96E will be come TD4E with in the next few days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1400. weatherblog
7:18 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Found this article very interesting...especially for anyone in Southern California. Here's a link

And, here's a small section of it:

While most hurricanes in the United States impact the East Coast and Gulf region, the West Coast is also vulnerable. According to research presented in 2005 at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Diego, California, a tropical cyclone brought hurricane-force winds to San Diego in 1858.

"On October 2, 1858, estimated sustained hurricane force winds produced by a tropical cyclone located a short distance offshore were felt in San Diego," said Christopher Landsea, the co-author of a paper on the 1858 hurricane and a hurricane researcher at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla. "Extensive damage was done in the city and was described as the severest gale ever felt to that date, nor has it been matched or exceeded in severity since."

Coral evidence suggests the ocean was particularly warm that year and, according to a press release from NOAA, "warmer waters and a conducive atmosphere allowed the hurricane to sustain Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 1 intensity (wind speed of 72-95 mph) as far north as southern California. Available evidence suggests that the hurricane tracked just offshore from San Diego, without the eye coming inland, but close enough to produce damaging winds along the entire coast from San Diego to Long Beach."

Should such a storm return it would cost the region hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in damage according to Christopher Landsea and Michael Chenoweth, authors of the study.

"What this also tells us is that a hurricane has directly affected southern California in recorded history and we should remember that if the conditions are right, the area could get hit again," Landsea said. "Mike and I hope that emergency managers, residents of the area, business owners, the insurance industry, and decision-makers be made aware of this possibility, as most in southern California may think they are completely safe from hurricanes because they are on the Pacific coast instead of the Atlantic."
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1399. stormlvr
7:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1396. Drakoen 7:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2008

Yes, and the track looks reasonable. Lots of possibilities from that final forecast point.
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1398. MasterForecaster
7:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Am I the first to point out that a model had THREE storms in the E.PAC at once....a week ago?
1397. NorthxCakalaky
7:09 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
96L. First storm over 74mph in the East Pacific?

I noticed it will have more time over warm water than the other 2 tropical storms.


The East Pacific has realy got active.Does that mean the Atlantic will explode shortly after?
1396. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
The 12z ECMWF continues to show development with the wave over Africa. Slightly more aggressive with the system on this run take the system to the northern Lesser Antilles on July 8th.
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1395. IcemanMC
7:01 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Caneman go back to page 23 on the blog and read forward, plenty of opinions
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1394. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Photobucket
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1393. caneman911
6:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
can someone post the wave that is supposed to develope off of africa
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1392. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:34 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
JFV I didn't see the exchange that got you banned but i wonder if it was for taking up too much of the blog space on what amounted to a personal conversation. I haven't found any official pronouncements on use of language other than English on the blog. If there is perhaps it should be included in the guidelines. I enjoy occasionally reading Spanish or trying to figure out some other language but there were a couple of occasions that some of you younger folks had exchanges which would have been more appropriate in a chat room or on your own Blogs no matter what language they were conducted in. Fact is I had several of you on ignore for a week or two and it had nothing to do with your choice of language.
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1390. TerraNova
1:48 PM EST on June 29, 2008
Pressures are dropping fairly rapidly along the West Coast of Africa. Four stations, one in Sierra Leone, another in Guinea, another in SW Mali, and the last in Burkina Faso are reporting rapid drops in pressure over the past couple of hours.

Use Mesonet to view METAR reports out of Africa.
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1389. kmanislander
6:50 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Good afternoon everyone

Does anyone know what the position is with the QS satellite ?.

Is it dead for good or just down for a few days ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1388. presslord
2:49 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Holy thunderstorm, Batman!!! I'm about to get hammered.....
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1387. Drakoen
6:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Hey StormW!
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1386. TerraNova
1:48 PM EST on June 29, 2008
Afternoon StormW!
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1384. Drakoen
6:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
The GFS 12z run which is the red line and the ensemble members which are the blue lines. The ensembles are take into account for slightly different variations in the atmosphere.
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1383. hydrus
6:36 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
PATRAP--Neat post on the Saturn-5-rocket.I havent had time to ask you what your thoughts are about this years hurricane season.Do you believe it will be well above the norm?
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1382. Tazmanian
11:41 AM PDT on June 29, 2008
Northern California Joint Information Center - Call 530-226-2749.
Alps Complex (Shasta-Trinity National Forest): 2,445 acres at an unknown percent contained. This complex of 15 fires is three miles northeast of Burnt Ranch. The fires within the complex continue to slowly increase in size. Heavy smoke continues to limit visibility making it difficult to evaluate the extent of the fire behavior.
Information: Call (530) 226-2500 ext. 2.
American River Complex (Tahoe National Forest): 3,037 acres at 10 percent contained. This complex of three fires is 11 miles northeast of Foresthill. Power lines, watershed, and private inholdings remain threatened.
Information: Call (530) 478-6101.
Basin Complex (Los Padres National Forest): 30,043 acres at three percent contained. This complex of two fires is five miles southeast of Big Sur. Hwy 1 remains closed. A fire evacuation advisory was issued for residents of the Palo Colorado Canyon.
Information: Call (805) 961-5770 or visit the web site (click on Current Conditions).
BTU Lightning Complex (Butte Unit, Cal Fire): 13,200 acres at 15 percent contained. This complex of 31 fires is in Butte county. Active fire behavior continued. Jarbo Gapa and Concow are threatened. Precautionary evacuations were issued for several communities. Highway 70 is closed.
Information: Call (530) 538-7826 or visit the web site.
Canyon Complex (Plumas National Forest): 9,210 acres at five percent contained. This complex of 15 fires is 16 miles northeast of Paradise. Residences and archeological sites are threatened and road closures are in effect.
Information: Call (530) 283-7883.
Clover (Sequoia National Forest): 15,235 acres at 40 percent contained. The fire is 32 miles north of Weldon. Residences are threatened.
Information: Call (760) 376-3781 ext. 625.
Corral (Lassen-Modoc Unit, Cal Fire): 5,200 acres at five percent contained. This fire is 23 miles west of Termo. Winds increased fire activity. Structures remain threatened.
Information: Call (530) 257-9553 or visit the web site.
Cub Complex (Lassen National Forest): 3,500 acres at 15 percent contained. This complex of two fires is 16 miles southwest of Chester. Fire behavior included crown fire, torching, and spotting. Smoke is impacting the community of Chester. Highway32 is threatened.
Information: Call (530) 257-9553.
Gould (Klamath National Forest): 229 acres at 80 percent contained. This fire is 19 miles southwest of Etna. Smoldering was reported.
Information: Call (530) 493-1518.
Hell's Half Complex (Six Rivers National Forest): 1,600 acres at 25 percent contained. This complex of two fires is eight miles southwest of Burnt Ranch. Structures are threatened.
Information: Call (707) 441-3623 or visit the web site.
Humboldt Complex (Humboldt-Del Norte Unit, Cal Fire): 1,275 acres at 50 percent contained. This complex of two fires is in Humboldt county. Several residences are threatened.
Information: Call (707) 726-1225 or visit the web site.
Indians (Los Padres National Forest): 60,074 acres at 82 percent contained. This fire is 18 miles west of King City. Active fire behavior was reported. Numerous residences and cultural resources are threatened. Evacuations are in effect for Arroyo Seco.
Information: Call 805-961-5770 or visit the web site.
Iron Complex (Shasta-Trinity National Forest): 13,325 acres at five percent contained. This complex of 27 fires is one mile north of Junction City. Light to moderate fire activity was reported. Communities remain threatened. Highway 299 has restricted traffic flow.
Information: Call (530) 226-2500 ext. 2.
June ABCD Miscellaneous Complex (Mendocino National Forest): 1,498 acres at five percent contained. This complex of 10 fires is partly in a wilderness area 24 miles southwest of Chico. The Yolla Bolly Middle Eel Wilderness is closed.
Information: Call (530) 934-3316 or visit the web site.
Lime Complex (Shasta-Trinity National Forest): 30,339 acres at 15 percent contained. This complex of 51 fires is 14 miles west of Hayfork. Numerous residences, ranches, and youth camps are threatened. Evacuations remain in effect.
Information: Call (530) 226-2500 ext. 2.
Mad Complex (Six Rivers National Forest): 2,528 acres at 35 percent contained. This complex of four fires is in Humboldt county. Moderate fire activity was reported. Residences are threatened.
Information: Call (707) 441-3623 or visit the web site.
MEU Lightning Complex (Mendocino Unit, Cal Fire): 28,650 acres at five percent contained. This complex of 107 fires is in Mendocino county and was previously reported as the Mendocino Lightning Complex. Moderate fire activity was reported. Numerous residences are threatened. The communities of Greenfield and Singley are threatened and evacuated.
Information: Call 707-467-6426 or visit the web site.
Mill Complex (Lassen National Forest): 2,100 acres at an unknown percent contained. This fire is 16 miles northeast of Los Molinos.
Information: Call (530) 257-9553.
North Mountain (Stanislaus National Forest): 1,811 acres at 30 percent contained. This fire is seven miles northeast of Groveland. Active fire behavior was reported. Residences and a lookout tower are threatened. Road closures are in place.
Information: Call (209) 532-3671 ext. 244/245 or visit the web site.
Oliver (Merced-Mariposa Unit, Cal Fire): 2,306 acres at 40 percent contained. This fire is 12 miles east of Mariposa. Moderate fire activity was reported. Structures are threatened and evacuation orders are in effect.
Information: Visit the web site.
Oliver Complex (Sierra National Forest): 1,000 acres at five percent contained. This complex of four fires is seven miles west of Fish Camp.
Information: Visit the web site.
Peterson Complex (Lassen National Forest): 7,824 acres at 90 percent contained. This fire is 10 miles east of Cassell.
Information: Call (530) 257-9553.
SHU Lightning Complex (Shasta-Trinity Unit, Cal Fire): 40,000 acres at 10 percent contained. This complex of 70 fires is in Shasta and Trinity counties. Several communities and power generation system are threatened. Junction City, Platina, Corman Ranch, and power generation systems are threatened. Evacuation orders are in place.
Information: Call (530) 225-2510 or visit the web site.
Silver Complex (Sierra National Forest): 1,061 acres at 70 percent contained. This fire is 12 miles southeast of Mariposa. Moderate fire activity was reported.
Soda Complex (Mendocino National Forest): 3,560 acres at 60 percent contained. This fire is 15 miles northwest of Upper Lake. Residences are threatened.
Information: Call (530) 934-3316.
Siskiyou Complex (Klamath National Forest): 7,570 acres at 18 percent contained. This complex of three fires is 18 miles southwest of Happy Camp. Campgrounds and residences are threatened.
Information: Call (530) 493-1518.
TGU Lightning Complex (Tehama-Glenn Unit, Cal Fire): 17,541 acres at 55 percent contained. This complex of three fires is in Tehama county. Moderate fire activity was observed.
Information: Call (530) 528-5193 or visit the web site.
Ukonom Complex (Six Rivers National Forest): 6,009 acres at two percent contained. This complex of three fires is three miles southwest of Somes Bar. Structures are threatened.
Information: Call (707) 441-3623 or visit the web site.
Walker (Sonoma-Lake Napa Unite, Cal Fire): 14,500 acres at 95 percent contained. This fire is 10 miles northeast of Clearlake Oaks.
Information: Call (707) 967-1456 or visit the web site.
Whiskeytown Complex (Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, National Park Service): 4,000 acres at an unknown percent contained. This complex of three fires is 12 miles west of Redding. Power lines and communication towers are threatened.
Information: Call 530-242-3438 or visit the web site.
Yuba River Complex (Tahoe National Forest): 3,169 acres at 57 percent contained. This complex of 28 fires is 13 miles northeast of Nevada City. Several communities, hydroelectric facilities, and recreation sites are threatened.
Information: Call (530) 478-6101.



send some rain Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1380. Tazmanian
11:35 AM PDT on June 29, 2008
send all TD TS and hurricanes to CA Please
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1379. weatherblog
6:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
By the way, the next named storm in the EPAC (which will probably be 96E) will have the name of Douglas.
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1378. Patrap
1:30 PM CDT on June 29, 2008
Who woulda thunk this ?

But NASA of course.

LOL


The year was 1966 and NASA was testing its first fully-assembled, 363-foot tall Saturn V moon rocket at its launch facilities in Florida. Despite the threat posed by a hurricane and a ruptured fuel line, the trials with the sky-scraping booster had gone well and it came time to separate the Saturn into its five stages in the voluminous Vertical Assembly Building that had been erected for that very purpose.

But NASA engineers had another idea: though the rocket had been analytically designed to be structurally stable, they saw the opportunity to gather some real world data about how the booster would react to vibrations imparted by wind and other outside forces.

So, they proposed to set the Saturn swaying. And what better way to do that than to exert force on the tower by having one group lie on their backs and push with their feet while another pulled a rope tied to the opposite side?

m
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1376. weatherbro
6:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I never really got how convection forms over the sub Saharan. Is all of Equatorial Africa sub-Saharan?
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1374. weatherblog
6:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Thank you JFV.

To sum it for anyone wondering where our potential storm may go, it depends on the strength of it and the actual steering currents once it's formed...and, that's if it forms at all. And, all we know right now is that we may have at least a tropical depression to track across the CATL. Where it will go from there- to the west? north?...It is still to early to know. All we can do right now is wait and see (just like every system).
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1373. JRRP
6:21 PM GMT on Junio 29, 2008
1366
good idea

buena idea

lol

jajajaj
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5961
1372. HurricaneGeek
2:26 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Ok guys, gotta go, I'll see y'all later =)
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1371. Tazmanian
11:25 AM PDT on June 29, 2008
i sure hop that is not the set up this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1368. weatherblog
6:19 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
If the wave were to develop around the time the models are agreeing on, it will most likely track W/WNW through the CATL. It will then most likely be near the Antilles.

After that, it has it could go anywhere from Central America, to the GOM, to the E coast, or simply north out to sea. And, then again, it may not even develop.
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1366. FLWeatherFreak91
2:16 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Ok. my bad with the language thing! I forgot that i got banned once already this season for posting in Spanish alone. So from now on, if happen to post in Spanish there will be an English translation directly below it. I think if we all do the same thing then no one will have a problem and no further bans will occur.

Sí. Está lloviendo aqui en La Romana. Y, estoy en la Romana porque mi familia tiene hoteles aqui y yo los visito todos los anos.

Yes. It's raining in La Romana. And, I'm in La Romana because my family owns hotels there and I visit every year.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
1365. HurricaneGeek
2:18 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
1363. It could! but... but also, might not lots of variables remember stage #1 is invest... currently we are at stage #-1... not even #0, afterall, its not even on water!! =)
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1364. Tazmanian
11:18 AM PDT on June 29, 2008
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
1362. HurricaneGeek
2:16 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Always refer back to post 1335, JFV, if you have to! Exiting stuff but let's wait and see it happen...
=) it's cool.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.