Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

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The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather
A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)
Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.
500 Year Flood 2008
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1611. Stormchaser2007
4:00 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Hello everyone!! How is everyone on this fine evening?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
1610. HurrikanEB
3:51 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
did that big wave that was over the african coast this morning fizzle
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1608. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:20 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THIRTEEN
0:00 AM UTC June 29 2008
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Boris (992 hPa) located near 14.8N 118.3W or 682 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
12 HRS: 14.8N 119.5W - 65 knots (SSHS 1 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.8N 120.9W - 60 knots (Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.5N 123.5W - 50 knots (Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.0N 126.0W - 40 knots (Cyclone)

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1607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:15 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
hello out there
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1606. beell
3:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
The SALbedo Report (and a tip o' the hat to the GSman) and other stuff.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1052 PM AST SUN JUN 29 2008

.UPDATE...00Z SJU SOUNDING INDICATING SAL CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW PRODUCING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW MODEST TSTORMS THIS EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OFF OF CNVTN OVER CENTRAL CARIB HAS
PRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALL DAY AND EVENING...AND
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH SUSPENDED DUST IN THE SAL. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS THE LLVL MOISTURE AND CNVTN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CARIB
LLVL PERTURBATION MOVES FARTHER WEST. HAZY SAL RELATED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WITH SOME
CLEANER MID LATITUDE AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...PUTTING US RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THIS SAL/CLEAR
AIR BOUNDARY...AND WOULD EXPECT HAZE TO END OR BE VERY SLIGHT FOR
A SHORT PERIOD THEREAFTER. SAL AND DUST WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA...CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE GFS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL FORECASTING A VIGOROUS AEW
TO EXIT AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE ATLC. HOWEVER MODELS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THIS WAVE TO BECOME SHEARED AS IT APPROACHES
THE NE CARIB NEXT SUN-MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM AST SUN JUN 29 2008/

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND IS
MAINTAINING A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...RADAR ND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME WEST OF OUR CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS GENERATED BY THIS THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WERE LIMITING FACTORS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY...SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. FOR MONDAY...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ FROM 16-20Z.

MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ALL CARIBBEAN WATERS.SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
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1604. ShenValleyFlyFish
10:26 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hey JFV Didn't intend to ignore you just popped over to one of the other blogs.
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1603. Skyepony (Mod)
2:15 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
This fsu site has the invest in the wrong spot.
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1602. Skyepony (Mod)
2:08 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Sure.. looks like the models kinda downcasted Boris as it was. Latest I saw on the navy site was 60kts & 992mb.

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1601. Skyepony (Mod)
2:03 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Left to right..Christina, Boris & Invest 96E

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1600. all4hurricanes
9:54 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Is there a possibility that Boris could gain 5mph and become a hurricane before it starts to weaken?
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1598. ShenValleyFlyFish
9:49 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Hi folks.

I'm back after running all over the net. FinialLY think I found site I was thinking about: http://www.cargolaw.com/

More than you ever wanted to know about lots of stuff you never knew you aren't interested in. Tucked in among all the other stuff is a running tally of losses of life ships and cargo, great tales of the sea sort of like a working peer without the seagulls. Good place to go to procrastinate if things are too slow here lol.
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1597. pottery
9:47 PM AST on June 29, 2008
Surfmom. Great philosophy. Charge the battery often. Good night to you.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1596. surfmom
1:48 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
G'nite have a nice evening ALL
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1595. surfmom
1:30 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
I am very lucky that I love what I do. My kids were spaced 7 years apart -- so each was an adventure...and in the raising of each boys I got to learn new things as they discovered their interests. Florida is for me a vast playground -- I love to play, and raising my boys was quite an adventure since they were very adventurous ( ever get a fish hook cast into your back by a 7 year old. It's a hoot now ...but) -- The energy, well it's past my bed time LOL -- but I did get a good battery and I figure I am going to have a good time as often as possible. I think a lot of us forget to play
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1594. beell
1:45 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Forgot the "wave"
This was supposed to go with post 1556.

700mb 06/29 18z GFS at 96 hrs. A closed circulation at this level.
Photobucket

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1593. conchygirl
9:35 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Night all........works calls too early in the am....I'll be lurking from work tomorrow to see what the Tropics will bring! Keep the action out of the ATL!
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1592. Drakoen
1:29 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
If you want to see a clash of regimes look at the Atlantic Wide View. Look out into the Central and Eastern Atlantic and you should be able to see what it is fairly easily.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1591. conchygirl
9:30 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Night Merle.....understand too well about the I95!
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1590. presslord
9:29 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
yea Conchy...have fun...beer wench is an honored maritime position...
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1588. melwerle
1:29 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Alright kids - i gotta go to sleep...wiped out from the day and then driving the boat home on the never ending construction site they call the I95. Sweet dreams.
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1587. GeoffreyWPB
9:27 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Surfmom, Your energy is amazing! What is your secret?
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1586. melwerle
1:25 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Sounds like a great time conchy...I'm JEALOUS
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1585. surfmom
1:23 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
I am getting antsy waiting for something here in WFL.... It's been to long w/out waves here, although good for the fishermen, the East coast of Fl is going flat now.

Pulling out the kayaks tomorrow --got to keep the young bucks busy and tired
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1584. GeoffreyWPB
9:19 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Taking everything and everyone's (almost) observations into consideration...along with my own limited knowledge...it appears that our next named storm (Bertha) will appear at around the same time as last year's third named...Chantal..

Blast from the Past:
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL
CENTER ON SATELLITE. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED
BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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1583. beell
1:22 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Hey pottery! Top of the evening to you.
Oh yeah the weather.
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1582. melwerle
1:23 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
My centerboard is kind of sharp in areas so the last thing I want to do it go over...daughter sliced her hand on it when it got stuck and she tried to unstick it...OUCH. I'm the one who would dry side it before I go in...lol...

Anything new that I missed over the last two days without having to go back a hundred pages?
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1581. conchygirl
9:20 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Going to the Windwards (St. Lucia) early next year sailing......me, the Beer Wench - much easier than hauling sails and the weather is typically great that time of year!
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1580. presslord
9:20 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
thanks to y'all, I've grown convinced that what anihilated my grand oak today was a microburst...How common is this? Is this the same phenomenon which slammed an airliner into the ground on landing a few years back?

I watched it happen from my living room through the rain..no warning...just BAM!
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1579. surfmom
1:21 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
I found it quite beautiful and I loved the detail - almost sense the life in it
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1578. pottery
9:15 PM AST on June 29, 2008
LOL, thats fine then. Hi Beel !

Re: the weather. The waves keep being swallowed by the dry air so far. Here in Trinidad, lots of Sahara dust today, but also pretty high humidity. Not a normal combination, and some cloud cover had the place steamy and damp all day.

The wave still overland Africa is a biggy, and it will be interesting to see if it can produce anything to justify the existance of the models, later in the week.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1577. surfmom
1:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
don not know what part of the St John you were on, but if it looked like where my son went to commercial dive school --I would not ever want to be in it
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1576. presslord
9:18 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
mel...I first raced a Hobie Cat 16...went in all the time...it ain't the most fun part of the ride....
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1575. Drakoen
1:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1572. surfmom 1:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
#1567 It's still so incredible to me to be able to watch this travel across the ocean....to see it now-- and wonder if it's a wave maker, a storm of mass destruction, or NADA.


Yes lol. I really like the full-size Java animations you can see the little vortex over Eastern Guinea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1574. melwerle
1:17 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Press - foredeck on a lightning is way different than a big boat...I think I like the big boats WAY better actually - they don't capsize...I HATE going into the drink.
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1573. Drakoen
1:16 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1570. beell 1:15 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1562.
LOL. TUTTville is one windy dry city.
Yeah, a dust bowl town lol.

But maybe not quite as amplified into next week?


Yea. It's slowly going to the north to allow upper level ridging to dominate the TRPL ATL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1572. surfmom
1:12 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
#1567 It's still so incredible to me to be able to watch this travel across the ocean....to see it now-- and wonder if it's a wave maker, a storm of mass destruction, or NADA.
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1571. beell
1:15 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Somebodys got to hold my barf bag tho.
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1570. beell
1:11 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1562.
LOL. TUTTville is one windy dry city.
Yeah, a dust bowl town lol.

But maybe not quite as amplified into next week?
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1569. presslord
9:13 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
beell's your backup pottery....I frankly don't think one barmaid will be enough....
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1568. pottery
9:09 PM AST on June 29, 2008
Presslord, @post 1152
I thought you already approved my application for barmaid ! I already went and got a Hooters uniform man.

Evening all.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1567. Drakoen
1:12 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Here's a good satellite image of Africa The wave is currently located over Eastern Guinea. The images update fairly quickly and if you open a java animation you get a pretty big animation to look at. I actually favor this over the RAMSDIS Africa view.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
1566. GeoffreyWPB
9:08 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
stormdude..is this a secondary wave..or the one that has been talked about for the past few days?
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1565. melwerle
1:03 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Press - just practice this weekend. Going to sail in the Nationals in Rhode Island in August so had to get out and have time on the water with the folks I'm sailing with. Have changed positions (foredeck instead of middle crew aka spinnaker) and I need to get familiar with it. A bit different perspective...not much hiking out unless the wind is awful and my first instinct is to throw myself over the side of the boat and hike...
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1564. GeoffreyWPB
9:05 PM EDT on June 29, 2008
Any recent sat. images of the African wave? Last one I saw looked much weaker than the previous ones.
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1563. stormdude77
9:03 PM AST on June 29, 2008
I think the wave the models are developing, is now approaching the West coast of Africa...we'll have a better idea of the situation tomorrow...

1562. Drakoen
1:05 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
1556. beell 1:02 AM GMT on June 30, 2008
Oh yeah, the weather. My two cents.

Strictly talking GFS. The wave exiting Africa now shows good continuity almost all the way across the ATL. Then it gets picked up by a CONUS trough. The wishcast/downcast turns to fishcast.

The TUTT is a player. The following two frames are from todays 18Z GFS at 250mb-way up high in "TUTTville" with an amateur representation of this Tropical Upper Atmospheric Trough in yellow


LOL. TUTTville is one windy dry city.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.