Typhoon Fengshen one of the deadliest ever for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2008

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The year 2008 continues to be a year of the natural disaster, as the death toll from Typhoon Fengshen in the Philippines appears likely to exceed 900. At least 163 died when the Category 2 typhoon made landfall over the northern Philippines Saturday, and 807 people are missing from the ferry MV Princess of Stars, which sank during the typhoon. Only 38 survivors of the 845 people who were on the ship have been found. According to typhoon2000.com, Typhoon Fengshen will rank as at least the seventh deadliest Philippines typhoon since 1947, and may be the third deadliest by the time all the casualties are counted. The Philippines' deadliest typhoons were Typhoon Thelma of 1991 (5101 dead) and Typhoon Ike of 1984 (1363 dead).


Figure 1.Category 2 Typhoon Fengshen as it made landfall in the Philippine Islands on June 21, 2008. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Fengshen (the Mandarin Chinese name for the God of Wind), is the seventh named storm of the 2008 Western Pacific season, the the second to cause major loss of life. On May 17, Tropical Storm Halong made landfall on Luzon island in the Philippines. The storm caused 58 deaths and $94 million (USD) in damage, destroying 43,365 houses and damaging 188,830. All of last year's typhoons in the Western Pacific killed about 160 people, so the 2008 typhoon season is off to a very bad start. The City University of Hong Kong is predicting a slightly above average typhoon season in 2008, with 30 named storms and 19 typhoons. An average season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons.

Tropical Atlantic
It's quiet in the Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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829. guygee
4:56 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Interesting discussion on differences between the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models today in HPC's Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion:
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008
[...]
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REPRESENTS THE WESTERN...AMPLIFIED EXTREME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN TAKING THE DISTINCTION OF THE FLAT...PROGRESSIVE COUNTERPART. BECAUSE THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT COMPRISE THE GEFS MEAN ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS RESOLVED THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...IT IS NOT NECESSARILY AS MEANINGFUL...SAY...AS WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DIFFERS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS MADE UP OF COMPARABLY RESOLVED MEMBERS. IF A PATTERN IS POISED TO AMPLIFY VIA A PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE...A MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED MODEL IS MORE LIKELY TO CAPTURE SUCH A FINER SCALE MECHANISM. IN THIS CASE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS CLOSER TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THAT CYCLE THAN THE PAIRING FROM 00Z/23...ADDING CREDIBILITY TO THE EUROPEAN CENTER SOLUTION.[...]

This may seem cryptic, but without having to dig back into the manuals myself, from Mark Iredell, NCEP/EMC Global Modeling Branch : "The GFS collects observations for 2 hours and 45 minutes past synoptic time and makes a 16 day forecast from 4 synoptic times per day, namely 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, and 1800 UTC. The GFS starts at the same highest resolution (T254 L64) as the FNL but drops resolution during the forecasts. After hour 84, the GFS drops to T170 L42 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 80 km mesh. This vertical resolution extends from 996 mb to 2.0 mb for a surface pressure of 1000 mb and approximates a 850 meter mesh at 250 mb. Then after hour 180, the GFS drops to T126 L28 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 105 km mesh. This vertical resolution extends from 995 mb to 2.7 mb for a surface pressure of 1000 mb and approximates a 1300 meter mesh at 250 mb.The ENS consists of 22 extra 16 day perturbed forecasts, 11 at 0000 UDT and 11 at 1200 UDT. The ensemble starts at the same T126 L28 resolution described above, but the ensemble also drops resolution during the forecasts. After hour 84, the GFS drops to T62 L28 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 210 km mesh. This vertical resolution is the same as for the T126 L28 resolution"

Further, from easterwx, rainshadow notes, "When comparing the operational run to the ensemble mean you are really comparing an apple to a bunch of lemons. The ensemble members are run at three times the resolution of the operational gfs (*guygee-he means 1/3 ...the resolution of the ensemble models is 3 times lower ...a difference in definitions*). That poor resolution should result in flatter, more progressive solutions. The fact that the ensemble members are farther east is what one would expect from them. The only time I find ensemble solutions useful is when they show a deeper, less progressive solution. The ensemble members were also farther east with tonight's system."

However, the ECMWF ensembles have been considerably updated and run at a much higher resolution. See ECMWF 2005 Higher resolution model upgrades, the ECMWF Newsletter - Chronological list of articles, and ECMWF Atmospheric model identification numbers w/links to the technical specs.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
828. IKE
4:19 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
827. zoomiami
4:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Surfmom, I wondered how you surfed on the GOM, I remember a very flat, very calm, body of water when I lived there. Little bumps once in a while!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
825. surfmom
3:43 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
LOL I AM SO EXCITED!! I'd like to qualify my joy by stating NO Storms of Mass Destruction, just enough of a rain making swell creating storm --enough to rock the buys and send some waves, but not cause any damage.

I've been paddling the buoys for weeks, maybe payoff time is on it's way
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
824. surfmom
3:39 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
LOL.. I am so excited!!!! Now to clarify my joy - no storms of mass destruction - just a pleasant rain making swell creating storm -- enough to rock the buoys, but not enough to cause damage......
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
823. Nolehead
3:34 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
way ahead of ya surfmom, waxed up and ready to go...just waiting for the swell to arrive..
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1932
822. surfmom
3:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
RAINRAIN, Radio shack had some decent travel models. Got one for the surf travel bag, leaned that it would be good to have one from Frances, had one for Jeanne - It's nice to have for trips over to the east coast of FL

Wonder if this area of interest will send some swell my way - buoy watch....you guys are picking up on this b/4 the surf dudes are
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
821. TampaSpin
3:31 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Morning everyone, what is going on North of the Dominacan
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
820. CybrTeddy
3:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
I think the beginnings of what the GFS may be talking about is forming in the BOC, not sure, just some clouds
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
819. surfmom
3:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Hades!!! I've been waiting for you!!! Finally got an e-mail from my surf friend in the phillipines. He lives in San Juan, but was married in CEBU (true surfer style) while the winds and rain of Feng were at a lull. While, since he was in the process of getting married in the middle of a 'cane) he didn't have time to e-mail me. Once he received my e-mail and advice that he follow things on WU, because he wasn't getting the full picture (he too prior to my e-mail figured it was going out to sea) he checked out things here (and I believe the information you had on your blog Hades)and made some decisions from there. I am happy to report that he was married, and is now very happily surfing 6-8ft seas. Just want to thank all you guys, and especially Hades on this one!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
818. TheWeatherMan504
3:22 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
815. leftovers 3:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Noticed recently the twc has really picked it up on their tropical reports. Way to go. I believe you'll get alot better ratings by doing this this summer. This hobby grows on people. Look at this blog people sometimes stay up all night updating information and sorts. Hope you keep it up TWC


The only problem i have is i dont like the way they made us setup the tropical update introduction this year i liked it the way it was in 04 and 05 and storm alert isnt gonna look exactly the same as it did in past years but i belive it will still be red. And rating skyrocked when we went into HD and when Cantore went into Evening Edition.But thank you for the complement.

Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
817. IKE
3:19 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
SSD satellites are now working and updating....

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
816. rainraingoaway
3:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Thanks Patrap. Think Radio Shack would have a decent travel model? Since we are leaving in the a.m. wont have time to order one.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
814. TheWeatherMan504
3:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2008


Looks more like an august setup than the usual june setup.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
813. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
3 Hong Kong wu-sites with data Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
812. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal, 8 remains in effect.


This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the northeast quarter.

Fengshen continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. Local winds are strengthening gradually.

According to the present forecast track, Fengshen will be closest to Hong Kong in the early morning, its centre might even cross the territory of Hong Kong.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau and Sai Kung were 60 and 48 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 81 and 86 kilometres per hour respectively.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen (0806) with a central pressure 980 hectopascals was centred within 21.3N 114.8E and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 9 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 55 knots.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 8 Signal)

1. Complete all precautions in your home. Lock all windows and doors, fit bars into position and insert reinforced shutters and gates if they are available. Adhesive tape fixed to large window-panes in exposed positions will reduce damage by broken glass. Strom water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish.

2. Do not stand near windows on the exposed side of your home. Move all furniture and valuables away from these areas. Make sure you have a safe place to shelter, should windows be broken.

3. Since seas are rough, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

4. Flights at Hong Kong International Airport may be affected by the weather. Please contact your airline for the latest flight information before departing for the airport.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45738
810. rainraingoaway
2:56 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Where'd you find that Sport?
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
809. IKE
2:55 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

806. bethie 9:52 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Good Morning All...

Heard this morning that the FL panhandle is due for some nasty weather later this week. Is this due to any tropical activity thats brewing? Just checking...

Smiles.... Bethie


Yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
808. melwerle
2:54 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Sailing in Jax this weekend - is it supposed to be yucky? I would rather not pack up the boat if it's going to be lousy weather...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
807. Drakoen
2:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
The high is a bit on the strong side at 1030mb.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
806. bethie
2:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Good Morning All...

Heard this morning that the FL panhandle is due for some nasty weather later this week. Is this due to any tropical activity thats brewing? Just checking...

Smiles.... Bethie
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
805. IKE
2:51 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
797. HurakanPR 9:43 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Hi,In the western part of the Island of PR we experienced winds gusting up to 35mph,they lasted for about two hours, a very stormy morning indeed for us at the beach were we where celebrating our traditional "San Juan eve".


It's moving on west of you now......


The 12Z NAM over-doing the moisture from the tropical wave, along the northern GOM????.....

Link



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
804. Patrap
2:48 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
One can always send folks pass my blog for the NOAA radio info in my header.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
803. TheWeatherMan504
2:48 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
800. txalwaysprepared 2:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

Thats very unusual for this time of the year you usualy see that in august not june.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
802. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Early warning is critical nowadays as folks are so Mobile and traveling.
Hard to Lug the NOAA radio inside the mall or restaurant.

Those are neat sport
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
801. rainraingoaway
2:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Thanks Patrap. Will try to drop in there amongst my list of shopping today.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
800. txalwaysprepared
2:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Wow that High is very defined.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
799. sporteguy03
2:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Viking & Patrap,
I bought myself a Midland HH50 Pocket size great reception easy to use and have a clip to take it anywhere requires 3AAA batteries for $15
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5361
798. 69Viking
2:43 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
794. Patrap

Thanks, looks decent for the price.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
797. HurakanPR
2:43 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Hi,In the western part of the Island of PR we experienced winds gusting up to 35mph,they lasted for about two hours, a very stormy morning indeed for us at the beach where we were celebrating our traditional "San Juan eve".
796. Patrap
2:42 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
The Emergency Email Network ...
from your local, regional and national government sources.
Weather Information-Homeland Security-Local Emergency Management- Health Alert

http://www.emergencyemail.org/ Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
795. txalwaysprepared
2:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
4 yr old says "funder" also LOL
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
793. rainraingoaway
2:38 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
I hear "funder" too...as my 5 year old puts it! No rain on my little piece of Tx yet either.

Unfortunately my NOAA radio got lost somewhere in the Rita mess. Yes....I know.....maybe when I'm out and about today I will get one again. I know I should!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
792. TheWeatherMan504
2:28 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
789. 69Viking 2:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Of course you're taking a battery powered NOAA Weather Radio with you right?


good point viking, or Notify INC. by TWC.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
791. 69Viking
2:28 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
BTW, can anyone suggest good NOAA Weather Radio products for the home and when mobile?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
790. Stormchaser2007
2:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
GFS MJO forecast.....

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
789. 69Viking
2:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Of course you're taking a battery powered NOAA Weather Radio with you right?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3060
788. txalwaysprepared
2:26 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
rain - I have to agree. And I used to work at one of the stations here in Houston (producer). When I go to smaller cities it just seems funny to me.

I hear thunder around here this morning... but not a drop of rain :(
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
787. rainraingoaway
2:23 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Morning all!

It would just seem to figure that buzz would be around the GOM when we leave for a 5 day camping trip tomorrow (here in Texas). Sure hope we have TV reception! Then again, its laughable to watch some smaller cities weather reports when you are at least used to a major market.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273
785. TheWeatherMan504
2:21 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
One thing about the 0z GFS scenario is that it is climatologicaly favorable to happen.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
783. Stormchaser2007
2:20 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
06z GFS 150 hours out.....

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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