Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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383. pearlandaggie
1:13 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
382. LOL...and don't call me Shirley!

/just joking around with ya!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
382. InTheCone
1:12 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Frankly, it is quite disturbing that you all are analyzing a CATL wave on June 16th, NOT a good sign......

Geez, and I planned my vacation for the end of June so that I'd be home to run away when the heart of the saeson came around!!!

Going to be a loooong season.....
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
381. pearlandaggie
1:12 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
hibernation???? how many pounds did you lose? :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
380. LightningCharmer
1:11 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Hello All!

Back from months of hibernation ready for the topical storm season.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
379. pearlandaggie
1:10 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
how DARE you?!?!?! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
378. moonlightcowboy
1:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Gore endorses Obama and promises to help him

FLINT, Mich. - Al Gore announced his endorsement of Barack Obama Monday and promised to help the Democrat achieve what eluded him %u2014 the presidency. In a letter to be e-mailed to Obama supporters, the former vice president and Nobel Prize winner wrote, "From now through Election Day, I intend to do whatever I can to make sure he is elected president of the United States."

In 2000, Gore won the popular vote but lost the disputed 2000 election to George W. Bush, who captured Florida and its electoral votes after a divided Supreme Court ended the recount. Since then, Gore has made combating global warming his signature issue, and has been recognized worldwide for his effort %u2014 from an Academy Award for a documentary for his effort to the Nobel prize.



....oooooppps, the kiss of death. Obama can hang it up now!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
377. all4hurricanes
1:07 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
I have never evacuated from any hurricane and unless I move near the coast I probably never will still DC traffic every day should make up for it
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
376. all4hurricanes
1:04 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

I think the low shear over the center of the storm means it developed an anticyclone
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
375. InTheCone
1:01 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
368.

Interesting thought Pat. - I will only need to evac. if a cat 4 or 5 is due in and then I'm only going about 200 miles north, but would you suppose that due to extreme traffic problems it would be necessary to carry gas??

Is that safe?? I guess it would be in tight cans - geez, hadn't thought of that. I got rid of my cans when I got my full time generator, guess I'll get a couple more....

Going to go and stay with my son and his college buddies, probably more dangerous to my health than a storm - lol!!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
374. all4hurricanes
1:01 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

If this appears you can see the dry air isn't really entering the system but it still only looks like a disorganized tropical wave
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2348
373. Tazmanian
12:57 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
whats the ch of that wave be comeing 92L??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
372. zoomiami
12:57 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Thats a scary thought - filling up the gas tanks at 4.25 a gallon - I would have minor fortune sitting in the yard!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
371. zoomiami
12:55 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Plywood: I just went over that bridge a few days ago, and thought about that. Never remember an actual road falling over.

We are in the falls area, and our outages have been much better for the last 2 years. They did a big project placing the underground cable inside of some type of conduit. Seems to make a difference.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
370. pearlandaggie
12:54 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
mmmmm! kool-aid! tastes good!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
369. InTheCone
12:51 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
360.

What???? Personal responsibility??? Good Lord man that's positively crazy - I fully expect that our truly magnaminous and completly competent gov't to bail out my sorry self - NOT! But, unfortunately ALOT of folks do!

PLYWOOD - you just need to stay away from P.B.C. - lol!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
368. Patrap
12:49 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Fuel this year will be an issue if a Major Evactuation is called..especially if it near the end of a month.
A good Plan is to NOW buy 50 gals.of fuel.
Stabilize it with a good quality stabilizer.
And store it Safely and Properly.

One will save money..and grief and may even have some for a friend or neighbor in need at the critical departure /evacuation time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
367. guygee
12:49 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
317. weatherguy03 12:13 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Ok, let me say it differently then. GW is a natural cycle, and its hysteria is media driven so that some bozos can get their grant money and screw up the atmosphere even more. Is that better??:)

So you are some guy with a non-Ph.D. Met degree that likes to post to wunderground blogs. Where are your peer-reviewed publications? Why should anyone believe your pronouncements when they can read the scientific literature written by the greatest minds in their field? Start here, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports, then follow the citations outward. Understand the science first, then decide for yourself.

The soundbite arguing on this blog is useless. I am coming around to agree with that view. If you are just too lazy to read the IPCC report and research it for yourself, arguing is a waste of time.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
366. Patrap
12:46 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
No engineering problems there that Im aware of.

I was at the readiness review meeting.

All that info is here.Link

The design changes,floodgate,and New Pumps are all on-line .And just had a readiness review.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
365. pearlandaggie
12:46 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
patrap...a veritable cornucopia of knowledge! :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
364. Drakoen
12:45 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
361. plywoodstatenative 12:43 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
drak, any chance of the COC we saw at one point visible returning?


Not sure. The best thing to do is to monitor the 850mb vorticity products to see if something is trying to work its way down to the surface.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
363. plywoodstatenative
12:45 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Patrap, one thing that I will start finding tomorrow and posting here. The gas stations that are generator equipped.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
362. plywoodstatenative
12:44 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
patrap, whats the word on the 17th st levee? I was hearing that you are having problems with the levee's again?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
361. plywoodstatenative
12:43 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
drak, any chance of the COC we saw at one point visible returning?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
360. Patrap
12:43 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Be prepared.
Landfall and impacts cant be predicted in advance,..period.
All we all can do is Prepare.
Even in this day and age.
After all the bells,whistles,postings,TWO's TWD's,GFDL runs,etc,etc..and Media hype.

It's the individual and their readiness that is Key in responding accordingly..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
359. Cavin Rawlins
12:41 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
357. plywoodstatenative 8:38 PM AST on June 16, 2008
456 any chance of a repeat pattern that involved Florida landfalls as they were this year?


That question is beyond me...lol...All I can see now is just a high centered similar to 04...Dont kno where they will go and who they will visit. Just be prepared.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
358. Drakoen
12:40 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Now that the wave in the CATL has a convective current going we'll have to see what happens during diurnal max. The mid level circulation shows up very nicely on RAMSDIS imagery on the eastern edge of the convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
357. plywoodstatenative
12:38 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
456 any chance of a repeat pattern that involved Florida landfalls as they were this year?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
356. Tazmanian
12:37 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
thanks Drakoen and 456
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
355. Cavin Rawlins
12:35 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
351. Tazmanian 8:30 PM AST on June 16, 2008

There is a good chance I'm gonna be wrong but the pattern I'm seeing now is more similar to 04 than 05. It's a good ways off for an accurate forecast but that is what I think.

In 2005, it wasnt really the Azores High that caused so many powerful landfalls but the fact that Katrina, Wilma and Rita developed close to land and thus they had to go somewhere.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
354. plywoodstatenative
12:34 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
the photo that sticks out during Pre-Katrina is the damage she did to the under-construction portion of the Palmetto in which it actually caused a portion of it to collapse. Thats what sticks in my mind as it went through Miami.

Ya know zoo, I want to see how prepared FPL truly is. For the hurricane season, cause I remember a number of times where we got hit by thunderstorms and huge losses of power. Now they start doing underground power grids in the middle of hurricane season, explain to me the smarts with that. Too much construction going on, and the speed in which they would be able to deconstruct those pieces of equipment is what scares me now.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
353. Drakoen
12:34 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
351. Tazmanian 12:30 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Drakoen or 456


what kind of high set up are we looking at for this year will it be like 2004 where it too evere storm or all most evere storm in two FL or will it be like 05 where the storms made land fall on the gulf coast???


No way to tell what the A/B high will be like during peak months though we can compare what the A/B high is like now to other years and get a rough outlook. Just have to monitor the mean position of the high.

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
352. pearlandaggie
12:33 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
see, Drak, now you can't say NO ONE pays attention to your posts! LOL (i'm just teasin' ya, man :) )
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
351. Tazmanian
12:30 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Drakoen or 456


what kind of high set up are we looking at for this year will it be like 2004 where it too evere storm or all most evere storm in two FL or will it be like 05 where the storms made land fall on the gulf coast???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
350. Weather456
8:22 PM AST on June 16, 2008
331. zoomiami 8:19 PM AST on June 16, 2008
To back track on a subject: yesterday someone was talking about how the convection can die, but the wave itself continues.

On a wave like this that is so far down, is it conceivable that it could move into an area where it would develop?


700 mb steering flow would place it near the SE Caribbean by Friday. Its best chance are in the Cbbean Sea where shear is expected to slacken to modest levels.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
349. Patrap
7:28 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Understand Disaster Events.
Stress:

* Everyone who sees or experiences a disaster is affected by it in some way.
* It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends.
* Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event.
* Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover.
* Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal.
* Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy.
* Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping.

Easing Disaster-Related Stress

The following are ways to ease disaster-related stress:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plan. Doing these positive actions can be comforting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
348. plywoodstatenative
12:25 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
lol, well I was the one with the knowledge on serious storms so that came in handy and I was the one who evac`ed to a shelter, but I remember one point in time in which I was inside a classroom with a bunch of Civil Air Patrol Members watching a large tornado form over Lyons and Wiles Rd. So I know though the NWS was saying that we did not get tornadoes with that storm, that at least one did form.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
347. Drakoen
12:27 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
342. pearlandaggie 12:24 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
corolios? LOL...hadn't heard of that one before, Drak! :)


lol I meant Coriolis ;P
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
346. zoomiami
12:25 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Its amazing the grief that Wilma caused, starting from the keys up to the center of the state.

Not many storms have moved that way, maintaining the winds and the rain the way that Wilma did.

In our neighborhood, Katrina actually did much more damage then Wilma, but we had no electric after Wilma.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
345. plywoodstatenative
12:24 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
taz, I hope neither. though I have a feeling that it will be a high like 04 with a cooperative ITCZ
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
344. pearlandaggie
12:25 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
343. LMAO!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
343. zoomiami
12:23 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Your neighbors might not be too happy that you moved ...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
342. pearlandaggie
12:22 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
corolios? LOL...hadn't heard of that one before, Drak! :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
341. Tazmanian
5:23 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
ok 456
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
340. plywoodstatenative
12:22 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Fort Lauderdale now. lived in miami during andrew move to Fort lauderdale and get nailed by Wilma. Notice a timeline starting up?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
339. Tazmanian
5:21 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
what kind of high set up are we looking at for this year will it be like 2004 where it too evere storm or all most evere storm in two FL or will it be like 05 where the storms made land fall on the gulf coast???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
338. Drakoen
12:18 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
326. plywoodstatenative 12:16 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Drak, so what does that mean then if the ITCZ is moving northward. What type of implications does that imply for the rest of the season. especially the bigger part of the season that all of dread in here.


The ITCZ moving northward is essential for development to occur. When the ITCZ comes up the high SST's come up. Also with the ITCZ northward you have more moisture and more support for waves when they develop low level circulations receiving the Coriolis effect.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29887
337. zoomiami
12:21 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
The after was much worse than the storm - we were there also. Where are you now?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4141
336. Weather456
8:16 PM AST on June 16, 2008
456 what dos this mean??? lower wind shear???

I dont think there is a direct relationship all the time. But in this case, an ridge overhead the ITCZ shifts north with the ITCZ and help reduce shear over the TRP ATL.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
335. plywoodstatenative
12:21 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Correction, that was stated yesterday that it would be just south of Puerto Rico in 126 hours. Now if it maintains convection and some bursts or a COC, we are going to see it get busy here.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
334. Patrap
7:18 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Returning Home After the Flood

* General Tips Link
* Before You Enter Your Home
* Going Inside Your Home

Returning home can be both physically and mentally challenging. Above all, use caution.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
333. plywoodstatenative
12:20 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
zoo, a few of the models put that wave as just a wave just south of Puerto Rico.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.