Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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433. 305st0rm
2:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JP you are absolutely right.....it is kinda scary that it's only june and were dealing this far out in the atlantic
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432. Tazmanian
7:05 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
dont you this love the Ignore toy heh heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
431. jaikishan
2:04 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
just a test message
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430. Trouper415
1:55 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Hey all.

When I read Jeff Masters post today, he mentioned that this flood is one that normally once in every 500 years. I thought that was tremendously amazing, and powerful.

I thought about that, every 500 years. Then I thought about Climate Change and had a realization that what Climate Change has the potential of bringing is something that is really out of humans knowledge to the greatest extent. The effects, the influences, and the impacts of Climate Change truly tap into history. We, if emissions rise as they are today into the future, have the possibility of seeing weather we have truly not seen in all of our lifetimes, and maybe not seen in thousands, and possibly millions of years. Truly powerful.

When Climate Change really starts ramping up in the coming years, floods such as this one, almost have the potential to be common. It's absolutely amazing.

When we talk about carbon levels today, that have not been seen in 600,ooo years, and possibly millions, we are tapping into something truly unknown. An area where non of us have ever gone before.

A place that will truly alter our lives, our homes, our families, our communities, our nations, our World.

We as humans, as most animals do, rely on stability. We rely on a stable climate. A stable food system. A stable water system. A stable economy and distribution of goods and resources.

And altering our climate to the potential which we have the power to do, in just this generation will create a tremendous amount of instability, creation conditions potentially far more durastic than this flood we are seeing today.

These potentials are trends of course. And just as we have the power to alter our climate, we have the power to create a more prosperous, stable, and enjoyable future for ourselves, and all life on Earth.

What do you all think?
Thanks
Patrick
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429. sarepa
2:02 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
cch m8..is the wave moving to a more favorable region then where it was today?
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
427. TampaSpin
9:59 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
413. cchsweatherman 9:54 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Just got back from work. Our Central Atlantic tropical wave looks quite interesting and from the satellite loops I have watched, it appears that it maintained convection through Diurnal Minimum and in the presence of abundant shear and very dry air. With this latest development, I'm going to say that there is a good chance we may see tropical development.

What wind shear....it is under very light shear......lol

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426. melwerle
2:02 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Hey SJ - it's beach Monday every week except for thsi week - tomorrow is the beach day...come down!!!..

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425. moonlightcowboy
8:53 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Definitely see some rotation with the twave near 8n, 33,34w.
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424. Tazmanian
7:02 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
i am with cchsweatherman we could see 92L here soon but olny if that wave can stay like this and dos not run in to high wind shear but some in tells me it will sooner or later but yet me say this this is arw 1st wave that has not gone poof in its 1st 24hrs of be in water
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
423. 305st0rm
1:59 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Convection of CATL wave has really been diminishing.......If no flare up tonight I think itll be real interesting if it does develop
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422. StormJunkie
1:51 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Evening all :~)

Imagery links We've been down this road mel ☺

We going to meet up sometime while you are in town?

As for the previous GW talk, I likely shouldn't say anything, but that just wouldn't be me....

Real or not, it does not really matter to me. I think researching it is great, it only helps us better understand our environment. Debating it is a waste of time though. Let's move forward and do what we can to live smarter. What harm comes from getting away from fossil fuels? I see mostly benefits. One way or another, one day, we will not be able to call this pale blue dot home anymore. Do we want to be ready for that day or don't we? If we do then our efforts should be geared towards developing smarter technologies and becoming less dependent on natural resources; not debating what impact a hummer getting 15mpg driving 100miles a day has.

Sorry for rambling, just my two cents.
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420. cchsweatherman
1:59 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
414. jphurricane2006 1:57 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
cant mel I have to work lol

thanks for the invite though


cchs shear is not abundant, there is actually an anticyclone over the system


I made a mistake and edited my comment. I meant to say abundant dust, not shear.
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418. Tazmanian
6:55 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
well looks like we may have 92L soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
417. cchsweatherman
1:58 AM GMT on June 17, 2008


There is a much stronger 850mb vorticity signature associated with this tropical wave than at any time during its path. In my opinion, we are seeing tropical development occuring.
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416. Chicklit
8:57 PM EST on June 16, 2008
Dr. Masters says nothing in the next seven days.
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415. cchsweatherman
1:54 AM GMT on June 17, 2008


Now this concerns me. In about 24 hours, we have seen wind shear through the Southern and Eastern Caribbean go from unfavorable to favorable for tropical development. This makes me think that this tropical wave could potentially take off and develop once it reaches the Eastern Caribbean.
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413. cchsweatherman
1:48 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Just got back from work. Our Central Atlantic tropical wave looks quite interesting and from the satellite loops I have watched, it appears that it maintained convection through Diurnal Minimum and in the presence of abundant dust and very dry air. With this latest development, I'm going to say that there is a good chance we may see tropical development.

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412. moonlightcowboy
8:51 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Have a good one, Pearland.
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411. InTheCone
9:49 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
399 & 400

Indeed, it used to be that folks in this country were able to have a healthy intellectual debate on either side of an issue without accusing others of being, well sub-human. This is no longer the case - people on EITHER side of an issue are all to willing to dismiss anything divergent from their opinion as being heretical.....

Sad, very sad, I really don't care what side of the issue you are on, I only know that I am an American. Not an Italian American, Polish, Jewish, Green, Pink......etc. Just an American and we need to all GET on the same side or we're in for some serious doo-doo!!!

Actually already are, but you ALL know that!!!

Enough - I'm out!!!

Wave in CATL needs to go poof!!! I hope :)

G'night all...
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410. rareaire
1:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
any models forcasting development?
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409. melwerle
1:48 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
I thought it did earlier but I haven't checked in since about 3 or so...got a link? Did you guys get rain this afternoon? We had nothing and I cancelled my day at the beach waiting for terrible weather...

tomorrow is the day though - babes at the beach day - come join us JP....before the jellyfish come out and bite us....
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407. melwerle
1:45 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
is our wave gone? Or is that what we're arguing about this evening?

Anyone want to sail (crew) next weekend?

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406. melwerle
1:42 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
and tons of good stuff in there too...

and no one fights if you do the ratios correctly
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404. pearlandaggie
1:43 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
alright, folks..i'm out.

ya'll have a good evening and be NICE to each other! :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
403. rainraingoaway
7:38 PM CST on June 16, 2008
Evening all. I see its been anything but quiet in here today! Always interesting.

Mel, I'll have one of those - sounds good!
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401. pearlandaggie
1:39 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
400. oh NO! trans fats, too! ;)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
399. weatherguy03
9:34 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
367.

Yep, thats the normal response when someone knows they are wrong, they have to attack the poster personally. Oh well. You can start by reading post 370:)
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29704
398. InTheCone
9:31 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
396.

LOL - we'll need that recipe in Sept!!
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397. InTheCone
9:28 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
So you weather junkies.....

Is there a correlation from the current weather pattern to the pattern in either '04 or '05 at the same time? Could we extrapolate to this year? It seems that it might look like one or the other in terms of tracks(mostly referring to mid-season, early and late seem to be variable due to seasonal variations, or where Plywood moves - lol!)

To early to tell?? Any takers??
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396. melwerle
1:27 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
ok -

two shots of pear vodka, a huge splash of pomegranite juice, a half of lime juice, stir and pour into a martini glass...

...oh geez, wrong site and drink it anyway...

Anything good going on? Did our blob in the atlantic go away?
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395. extreme236
1:23 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
391. LOL I have nothing against him but was just making a point :)
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394. LightningCharmer
1:25 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
392. pearlandaggie 1:22 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
LC...i was about to say that! LOL
you stole my thunder...errr, lightning, as it were!

Well rested from all that hibernation makes for quick 'thin' fingers.
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393. jaikishan
1:15 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
I am from Trinidad and would just like to extend our prayers to all the people affected by all the floods and tornadoes in the Midwest.I remember being a high school student in 1993 and seein all the articles in TIME Magazine with all the floods and resulting losses.
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392. pearlandaggie
1:21 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
LC...i was about to say that! LOL

you stole my thunder...errr, lightning, as it were!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
391. LightningCharmer
1:20 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
extreme, What do you have against Donald Duck? ...LOL
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390. extreme236
1:17 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
378. I think the media makes too much of all of these endorsements. If Donald Duck endorsed someone it would have no sway on my vote. To me, they don't matter but I guess to some people who can't think for themselves they have to have someone else tell them who they should vote for.
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389. pearlandaggie
1:18 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
388. LOL! maybe the Atkin's diet IS the better option!

(i'm just joking around with ya...don't take offense! welcome back!)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
388. LightningCharmer
1:16 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Pearl, Hibernating from blog meant lost pounds working rather than playing. It's not as good as it sounds.
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387. LightningCharmer
1:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Thank 456, 'Have lurked a time or two during the winter. It's good to be back.
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386. pearlandaggie
1:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
385. i guess i'm gonna have to try that sometime! :)

/probably works better than the Atkin's diet! :)

i'm just teasin' ya!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
385. LightningCharmer
1:13 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Pearl,

Lost weight, is that what I was supposed to do?
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384. Weather456
9:12 PM AST on June 16, 2008
380. LightningCharmer 9:11 PM AST on June 16, 2008

Welcome back....you havnt miss much.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
383. pearlandaggie
1:13 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
382. LOL...and don't call me Shirley!

/just joking around with ya!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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