Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La NiƱa continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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483. StormJunkie
2:40 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
472

Read a little further sg03 :~)

Still a long time, but 10% larger and it has cooked all the oceans away in a billion years.
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482. sporteguy03
2:44 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
I'll venture and say if something does develop in the ATL it will be under that convection, remember can't a LLC form anywhere on the axis of the wave?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
481. hurricane23
10:46 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
480. jphurricane2006 10:45 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
hey Adrian I got Bryan Norcross' the hurricane almanac from 2007, Im going through the hurricane history section now, its good

Awsome book! Ive read his/06/07 versions.I have his book linked on my home page.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
479. hurricane23
10:43 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Might want to keep an eye on the central altantic wave in the coming days as it looks like an upper ridge could be building which might create somewhat of a favorable environment for tc development in the next couple of days.Would like to see convection sustain a bit longer but Whether or not tc formation takes place the wave could bring blustery conditions to the islands. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13856
478. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
WWJP25 Weather Chart Synopsis
0:00 AM UTC June 17 2008

ID: LOW PRESSURE AREA (94W)
PRESSURE: 1010 HPA
LOCATION: 07N 135E
MOVEMENT: WNW SLOWLY
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477. TampaSpin
10:39 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
475. thelmores 10:38 PM EDT on June 16, 2008

Ya, but, it looks good and getting better organized........LMAO
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476. moonlightcowboy
9:38 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
TS, we'll know what it's going to do when it passes 35w. If the convection goes south past there with the ITCZ, it's history until the twave possibly births again in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
475. thelmores
2:36 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
471

Thats what I have been saying..... will never pull northward outta the Itcz..... now if some of this energy gets into the Caribbean........
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474. fldoughboy
2:33 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
It's funny to me how people blob watch when the atmospheric conditions are wrong and shear is very high across the Carribean. I don't come in the forums much until there is something going on, but today for S's and G's.
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473. thelmores
2:29 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
"It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days."

Jeff Masters


Well, I have to side with reason here..... I love blob watchin more than the next, but I just can't get excited about something in low latitudes of the central Atlantic in mid-June.....

And as for GW, I agree with ending debate. Add, we all should be able to agree we want clean air, and clean water. Lets start there, what do you say? :)
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472. sporteguy03
2:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
SJ,
7.59 Billion years that gives us time to do plenty of things including blogging on another planet's tropical systems:)
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471. TampaSpin
10:31 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
The GFS model develops a small low but it appears to go inland into SA.
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469. moonlightcowboy
9:19 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
And, Bob, is on a good roll, too! Thanks.

Hey, I'm no climatologist, not a met, etc. But, I can read and discern. I spent a great deal of time wading through the rhetoric, the opinions, the charts, etc, etc. Months of looking, studying. And, all that left me with one very conclusive opinion is that the "science" is hardly in. Unfortunately, the AGW advocates are claiming that it is and continually discount and trivialize those that present information otherwise.

When you go through the IPCC's information, see how they have mis-represented data, manipulated data and fraudulently used corrupted data - the conclusions become clearer. One can not look at short periods of time and draw these OMG alarming truths. And those advocates are completely discounting the natural variability and the many related unknowns, but yet harp on their unsubstantiated ACO2 findings. The math just doesn't work. The methodology definitely doesn't work. AND MOREOVER, I do not trust anything associated with the UN and their proven track record of corruptness.

The "science" is really not in. They just want to make us believe it is. If they say it long enough, people will actually start believing it - that's the way that works. But, I don't and won't!

How could anyone support their findings when their methods and solutions for creating the farce of ethanol as an alternative fuel? It's energy inefficient - that means it actually takes more energy to produce it than it remits. Additionally, it takes 10,000 liters of water to produce just five liters of ethanol. Now, really - who's fooling who here? But, I imagine a chunk of folks have gotten rich in the futures market as a result! But, it's nothing but a get-rich scam. Unfortunately, it's put further stress on water problems and caused hunger and higher food prices.

Ugh! Yeah, it rips me when I hear the advocacy of such selfish human behavior. If one follows the money, one can usually find the truth. And, it ain't about saving mankind, it's about screwing him!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
468. sporteguy03
2:31 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JP,
The wave convection should last until at least your leftover lunch tomorrow. Did you watch the Woods match at work?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
467. StormJunkie
2:23 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
It is just the way it all works Bob

And that's just if something else doesn't get us sooner.
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465. TampaSpin
10:27 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
If you look at the loop at Post 455 one can see the mid level swirl is NE of the strongest convection....
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464. Tazmanian
7:23 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
i wish they make this wave 92L so that way we can see some mode runs for it
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462. TampaSpin
10:24 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
The wave is about to go poof.....in my opinion....
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461. stormdude77
10:18 PM AST on June 16, 2008
JP is right, very dry conditions ahead. But, we wait, we see

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460. melwerle
2:24 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
you have mail Sj
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459. cchsweatherman
2:22 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Even though QuikSCAT does not depict one, satellite imagery has me convinced that a low-level circulation has developed and may be closing off. This feature is now exhibiting much better organization.
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458. weatherguy03
10:20 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
451.

Ok Nostradamus...LOL
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457. StormJunkie
2:18 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Nope mel, I just got confused. I thought this weekend was Chas, not Beaufort.
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456. Tazmanian
7:19 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
lol jp ok
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455. TampaSpin
10:17 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
This link i think shows the center NE of the strongest convection.
Link
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454. sporteguy03
2:17 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Jp Funnel Clouds in Apopka today!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
452. stormdude77
10:15 PM AST on June 16, 2008
444. Tazmanian 10:13 PM AST on June 16, 2008

Taz, LOL...
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451. StormJunkie
2:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
lol Bob

I am not talking about you, your children; and even your great-grandchildren were not in what I was getting at. One day, one way or another this earth will no longer support mankind. Is it the end? Or just the beginning. I know what I hope it is.

Now back to the swirly thing in the Atl...
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450. Tazmanian
7:15 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
lol jp dont say that to the wave this yet i need to give it some beer 1st
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449. melwerle
2:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
SJ - I was told race week was a couple of weeks ago - i am going to beuafort this weekend though to race the lightning (stuck on stupid).

Am going to the nationals in August though - in the masters to crew. Go invited and am jazzed. Black and blue from last weekend's race here.

Is there something there i don't know about?
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448. moonlightcowboy
9:11 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
We should be able to see something as it passes 35w. The ITCZ dips back southwards after there. If that convection remains over the mid-level rotation and it remains stacked around 8n, I think we'll start seeing an llc develop and a coriolis degree of movement. Coriolis has a natural move of up to two degrees northwards. Past that it amounts to strength and steering.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
447. StormJunkie
2:12 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
lol mlc, thanks :~) and good to see you

Thanks jp, have not looked at any imagery on it. Been waiting until it got in to the Goes E frame of view. Guess it is about time to take a look. Any model support?
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445. weatherguy03
10:07 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
One way or another, one day, we will not be able to call this pale blue dot home anymore.

Why? Where are we going? Do you really believe the Earth will not be here anymore?? This planet has survived alot, and it will survive the current Climate Change, well unless a huge Asteroid comes down and gets us!..LOL Sure we should conserve, I am all for it. But come on, we arent exactly contributing to GW like some of the alarmist want you to believe. Oh and the Severe Weather and the flooding in the Midwest, its called La Nina.
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444. Tazmanian
7:11 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
this is are 1st wave that has not gone poof whats give it a party
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441. sarepa
2:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
429. sarepa 2:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
cch m8..is the wave moving to a more favorable region then where it was today?

It will be under pretty much the same conditions for quite some time until it reaches the Antilles.


Alright thanks buddy
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440. sporteguy03
2:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JP,
Looks more circular now the wave and it appears the convection is on the east side of the axis center?
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439. moonlightcowboy
9:09 PM CDT on June 16, 2008


Nice contribution, SJ. Well said!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
438. hydrus
1:59 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
CCHS-You make an interesting point about that wave.This is what I heard,if any tropical wave develops into a tropical depression before it reaches the lesser Antilles,it has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the carribean sea.But it is still June and if this did happen, it would be a rare event indeed.
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437. Tazmanian
7:07 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
i am with cchsweatherman we could see 92L here soon but olny if that wave can stay like this and dos not run in to high wind shear but some in tells me it will sooner or later but yet me say this this is are 1st wave that has not gone poof in its 1st 24hrs of be in water
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436. StormJunkie
2:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
I thought you were racing up here this weekend mel?

Is the center of this wave under the convection or W of it?
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435. cchsweatherman
2:06 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
429. sarepa 2:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
cch m8..is the wave moving to a more favorable region then where it was today?


It will be under pretty much the same conditions for quite some time until it reaches the Antilles.
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433. 305st0rm
2:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JP you are absolutely right.....it is kinda scary that it's only june and were dealing this far out in the atlantic
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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