Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La NiƱa continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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533. moonlightcowboy
11:01 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Less impressive on water vapor loop.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
532. TampaSpin
12:02 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.
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531. Weather456
11:55 PM AST on June 16, 2008
There has been a significant increase in 850 mb vorticity with the wave. However, I am not convince there is a LLCC until 2mr's visible imagery or sea winds overpass.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
530. JLPR
11:59 PM AST on June 16, 2008
even thought I am not sure the wave will develop it has certainly won the award of very impressive looking wave for June =P
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529. TampaSpin
11:57 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Looking at Satelite, it appears to me the lowest level circulation is right on 10N 32W in my opinion.
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528. flsky
4:00 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Has anyone ever seen a frontal map that looks like this? Weird! Link
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527. moonlightcowboy
10:55 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
AVN loop makes it look like something tropical is definitely out there. And, it looks like it might be separating itself from the ITCZ. (of course, I've been staring at it a lil while!) lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
526. TampaSpin
11:52 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Nite JP
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525. LightningCharmer
3:51 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Goodnight JP
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524. moonlightcowboy
10:51 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Have a good sleep, JP.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
522. moonlightcowboy
10:42 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
519. Yep, Drak, that rotation is looking fairly impressive in the present.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
521. TampaSpin
11:41 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Well gang it has been a productive evening. We have an Eye Wall that developed and the Red Sox got beat.......LOL
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520. TampaSpin
11:39 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
It appears an ULL is developing in the northern BOC.
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519. Drakoen
3:38 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
We'll see if tomorrow morning's quicksat shows a closed surface circulation. Right now the mid-level circulation is very well defined on night time visible imagery.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
517. JLPR
11:36 PM AST on June 16, 2008
Well Taz it all depends on how it looks after DMax tomorrow morning =) I guess =P
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514. JLPR
11:33 PM AST on June 16, 2008
Ramsdis floater on the tropical wave:
Link
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513. stormdude77
11:30 PM AST on June 16, 2008
This wave reminds me of a Twave (I think it was 96L), last year (in late June)...around this same location, conditions were favourable, expect dry air prevented further development of that Twave.

This may be a similar situation...JMO
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512. JLPR
11:26 PM AST on June 16, 2008
i am bitting my tongue on this wave =P It seems to have a somewhat better spin but I don't know =P

It has climatology and dry air against it and it needs stronger deeper convection
But it has some convection, with a nice anticlone and good SST so I guess it has a little chance of actually developing =P

Well goodnight everyone wont say anything more about the wave until morning =D
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511. LightningCharmer
3:29 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
jp,

Still looking; it must be on the office computer. It is satellite view of a spinning TC; can't remember which one.

...So many computers...SO MANY FILES...AAAHHHH!!!

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508. LightningCharmer
3:23 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
503. jphurricane2006 3:16 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
hey charmer werent you going to make me one of those interactive avatars?


I believe, I did. I don't know if it's on this computer

...Looking...
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505. LightningCharmer
3:18 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Maybe this was posted already but this is an impressive photo found on Fox's THE WEEK IN PICTURES.




June 10: A huge tornado funnel cloud touches down in Orchard, Iowa.
The Globe Gazette and Mitchell County Press News reported
that Lori Mehmen of Orchard took the photo from outside her front door.
Mehmen said the funnel cloud came near the ground and then went back up into the clouds.
Besides tree and crop damage, no human injuries were reported.


Hey Honey...Look what's in the front yard!!!
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501. LightningCharmer
3:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Did someone say EYEWALL!!!??? Gunshy perhaps...? LOL
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500. cchsweatherman
3:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Maybe I'm jumping the gun somewhat, but it does look much better in structure right now.
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498. moonlightcowboy
10:08 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
494. That means either of two things I think:

1. The subsiding air wrapping means that mid-to lower level rotation may be present and an llc is trying to form. However, the dry air will halt the production of lift and convection, preventing further development.

2. If the convection is itcz-related, the dry subsiding air will not likely effect convection that much, especially if the itcz continues to move northward and the high recedes more to the north. That still leaves development opportunity further west. SSTs are not an issue and lift is still quite evident and possible.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
497. TampaSpin
11:10 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
495. cchsweatherman 11:09 PM EDT on June 16, 2008you can see what appears to be an eye-wall feature

You gotta be kidding omg......LMAO.....
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495. cchsweatherman
3:03 AM GMT on June 17, 2008


JP - Just with that last image, it has clearly shown tropical development. There is a defined surface circulation now with building convection and even banding around the circulation. I hate to say this, but if zoom close in that image, you can see what appears to be an eye-wall feature. Damn, this looks impressive.
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493. moonlightcowboy
10:04 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
JP, moisture/convection is piling up in the Carib/GOM and the B/A is is ridging westwards?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
492. TampaSpin
11:02 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
489. jphurricane2006 11:01 PM EDT on June 16, 2008

The ITZ is climbing North because of a building High in the southern Hemisphere.
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491. cchsweatherman
3:02 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
489. jphurricane2006 3:01 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
there is also something else I am noticing on that loop Tampa

anybody know what that might be?


Don't know.
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488. TampaSpin
10:57 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
486. moonlightcowboy 10:55 PM EDT on June 16, 2008

Yep it is very nice...you can see how the ULL is getting kicked to the NE now.
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487. TampaSpin
10:53 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Conditions are going to change in the Atlantic soon. That big ULL is getting kicked out in the Northern Atlantic......things will be changing when it moves East.
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486. moonlightcowboy
9:54 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
485. TS those new mimic TPW products are just great. Notice how the TWD's, etc are referencing them quite a bit now, too.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
485. TampaSpin
10:51 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
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483. StormJunkie
2:40 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
472

Read a little further sg03 :~)

Still a long time, but 10% larger and it has cooked all the oceans away in a billion years.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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