Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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582. guygee
12:01 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Interesting long-range forecast in yesterday's MLB FL NWS AFD:
THU-SUN...CLOSED MID/UPR LVL LOW S OF HUDSON BAY IS PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCK THAT SPANS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT SE THOUGH MID WEEK AS A 70-90KT H25 JET PASSES IT TO THE S. AS IT DOES...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND GENERATE A VERY STRONG NWRLY FLOW THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS BY DAYBREAK FRI...IN WHAT COULD LOOSELY BE CALLED A WET SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE...

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581. Skyepony (Mod)
12:04 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Feds: 27 levees could overflow if sandbags fail
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580. biff4ugo
11:59 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Like that graphic Tampaspin! #485

Looks like the gulf is just a cookin and a waitn!
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579. all4hurricanes
11:58 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
there is some weather system helping to moisten the air around the wave but its not helping much the wave is still to disorganized and its entering lots of dry air and when it enters the Caribbean it will encounter moderate shear if it survives to make it to the gulf it might have a chance to form but I think it's more likely for it to cross central America and become an invest there
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578. guygee
11:37 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
573. IKE 11:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

Ike - At least this one should hold together so we can see one way or the other, unlike the debatable 91L.
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577. msphar
11:34 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
back to bed for me still dark out here.
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576. guygee
11:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
571. leftovers 11:30 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

Thanks for the update. I guess I saw the wave axis a little too far west on the satellite views this morning. Didn't realize the 8AM update was out either.
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575. extreme236
11:33 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Well all...I will be off the blog until at least next Sunday...I'm going on vacation to Tennessee. Cya
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574. IKE
6:32 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
Looks to me like it's going to go north of SA....
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573. IKE
6:30 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
That naked swirl is booking it to the north of due west. Maybe it'll put some cloths on before reaching the islands.........
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572. msphar
11:25 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
yes if the highs to the north start to break down later in the week, then it will have room to move north avoiding land/ but my guess is that Trinidad will feel its brunt. then it may squeeze in the Caribe like the Felix path.
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570. guygee
11:00 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Good morning!
The circulation associated with the wave around 38W looks to be of the "naked swirl" variety on the early visible loops this morning, except for some moderate convection in the SW quadrant mostly removed from the center. With the center of circulation centered at around 8N and the strong high to the north, it is going to be a close call at to whether the circulation can clear the SA continent. It looks to me like it will not, but some of the moisture along with the northern part of the wave axis will continue west into the lesser Antilles.
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569. msphar
11:18 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
that is just the ITCZ doing its thing
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568. jaikishan
11:14 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Any words on that moisture close to South America anyone?
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567. CaneAddict
11:12 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
566. extreme236 11:10 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?

I know I'm not Cane, but he said something about how its obvious a sfc circulation had formed and that if you zoom in closely you could see an eyewall forming.


Don't ever hesitate to answer a questiong EVEN if it is directed to me, We all can help out and provide more details together than if just one of us answers a question :-)!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
566. extreme236
11:08 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?


I know I'm not Cane, but he said something about how its obvious a sfc circulation had formed and that if you zoom in closely you could see an eyewall forming.
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565. IKE
6:05 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
I see the eastern Atlantic wave is spinning nicely, but got naked overnight. I guess GW made it so hot it had to strip itself.
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564. CaneAddict
11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?
Action: | Ignore User


Last night he used to words "eye-wall feature" to describe what looked to be a well-defined low-level circulation forming. I think he was just describing that and did'nt mean to say and "eye" was forming.
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563. CaneAddict
11:04 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
559. jphurricane2006 11:02 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
this system is still about 3 days away from the Caribbean, conditions could very well be different at that time, we will just have to see

I do admit the structure is still pretty nice


Yep, she's still rolling about!
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561. msphar
11:03 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
time enough to sit an twinkle at it.
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558. msphar
10:59 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
plus a latitude problem.
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557. CaneAddict
10:53 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

549. extreme236 10:42 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
495. Eyewall???? In this thing???


Yeah CCHS must of been off his rockers last night :-)! Anyway although this area is lacking convection, As long as it continues to hold a nice cylclonic turning signature it holds my watching...it could always regenerate stronger convection again so if the dry air does not get fully entrained than this area will still need to be watched, but you have to realize shear through the eastern caribbean is not all that favorable.
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554. msphar
10:52 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
JP yes but like you said give it 3 days for the crossing, its just a twinkle in someone's eye right now.
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551. extreme236
10:44 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
550. msphar 10:36 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Eyewall feature ???

I see a life support feature extending to the SW for moisture. Its probably choking on dust in its path. Definitely not benefitting from DMax. CPR may be needed soon.


I agree...the dry air must be choking it.
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550. msphar
10:36 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Eyewall feature ???

I see a life support feature extending to the SW for moisture. Its probably choking on dust in its path. Definitely not benefitting from DMax. CPR may be needed soon.
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549. extreme236
10:41 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
495. Eyewall???? In this thing???

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548. JLPR
5:40 AM AST on June 17, 2008
The wave didnt generate convection during DMax and we are at the peak in that area so...

no convection = very unlikely this will develop

... back to sleep =) ZzZzZzZzZzZzz
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
547. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:39 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST June 17 2008
===========================

At 8:30 AM IST, Yesterday's Depression (BOB02-2008) over coastal Bangladesh moved in a northwesterly direction and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh close to Krishnanager and about 80 kms north-northeast of Calcutta, India. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Coastal India
===========================================
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over north Orissa and Jharkhand during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls is also likely over south Orissa and Chhattisgarh during next 48 hours.
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546. TampaSpin
1:00 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
good nite everyone. I figured to have done enough damage today.
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545. Tazmanian
9:34 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
looks like i gave that wave too march beer
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544. moonlightcowboy
11:27 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Looks like this has the potential to get even worse.

Feds: 26 levees could overflow if sandbags fail - complete article.

WASHINGTON - The federal government predicts that 27 levees could potentially overflow along the Mississippi River if the weather forecast is on the mark and a massive sandbagging effort fails to raise the level of the levees, according to a map obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

Officials are placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees along the river in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri to prevent overflowing. There is no way to predict whether these levees will break, said Ron Fournier, a spokesman with the Army Corps of Engineers in Iowa.
....As of Monday evening, 27 levees have a potential of overflowing - 20 of those a "high potential" - according to the Army Corps. Six levees have already overflowed in the past three days: two in Iowa and four in Missouri.
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543. TampaSpin
12:22 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
541. Weather456 12:21 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
I dont know why some saying development


Would you say wishcasters......lol
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542. TampaSpin
12:20 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
539. CaneAddict 12:18 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Good thing most of us have good day jobs....ROFLMAO
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541. Weather456
12:18 AM AST on June 17, 2008
I dont know why some saying development when the system lacks organize deep convection. It reminds me of TS Debby in 2006. Satellite imagery showed the associated deep convection surrounded by a deck of low clouds which suggest mid-level dry air intrusion. This promotes mid-level subsidence and makes it difficult for LLCC to form.
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540. TampaSpin
12:16 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
Things could change but, South America bound it appears on Steering.
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539. CaneAddict
4:10 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

495. cchsweatherman 3:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008


Wow, You are really losing it....Theres no way in blue hell that an eyewall is forming with a tropical wave..
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538. Ldog74
4:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
still looks to me like its got major problems sustaining much convection, which would be a big hindrance in the development of a LLC
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537. TampaSpin
12:12 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
536. Weather456 12:11 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
532. TampaSpin 12:04 AM AST on June 17, 2008
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.

Mid-low level rotation centered near 7.5N/33.5W


Ok i think it looks more north at almost 10N. You could be correct.
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536. Weather456
12:07 AM AST on June 17, 2008
532. TampaSpin 12:04 AM AST on June 17, 2008
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.


Mid-low level rotation centered near 7.5N/33.5W
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535. Drakoen
4:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
The mid level circulation appears to be at 7N 33W.
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534. TampaSpin
12:06 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
533. moonlightcowboy 12:05 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Yep i noticed that a few minutes ago also.
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533. moonlightcowboy
11:01 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Less impressive on water vapor loop.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.