Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La NiƱa continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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682. TampaSpin
11:28 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
680. jphurricane2006 11:28 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
actually I think being above 10N is what is killing it now, the air is too dry and dusty there, it would have stood a better chance had it stayed further south


Yes JP i agree with that i just mean above 10N it will have a chance staying out of South America and enter the Carribean if it survives that far.
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679. TampaSpin
11:24 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
The only thing good for development if any ,is that it is above the 10N line which would possibly keep the circulation out of South America.
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678. TampaSpin
11:23 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
Here ya go
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677. Drakoen
3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
The wave in the CATL was a good wave as far as structure and to some extent organization. It's too bad the environment was so dry or else it would have had a good chance at developing. Visible imagery shows a mid level circulation moving WNW again into abundant dry air with the Saharan Air Layer.
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675. cchsweatherman
3:15 PM GMT on June 17, 2008


You can clearly see a partially exposed low-level circulation with the latest RAMSDIS visible image.
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673. TampaSpin
11:16 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
671. Floodman 11:15 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
beell, your first clue should have been the number on your post...666! OMG, you're the anti-christ! LOL

WOW........lol
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672. Weather456
11:12 AM AST on June 17, 2008
668. JLPR 11:05 AM AST on June 17, 2008
isn't that near 10.5N and 38W the circulation? =S
Ramsdis floater: Link


I see it too. I'll look at it through the day and see if its the real deal...does look evident tho.
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671. Floodman
10:14 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
beell, your first clue should have been the number on your post...666! OMG, you're the anti-christ! LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
670. TampaSpin
11:13 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
669. beell 11:12 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
Tampa,
Speculate? Is that what I did? OMG.
Sorry.
Have a good 'un.


LOL, see ya gotta go make some money....
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669. beell
3:10 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Tampa,
Speculate? Is that what I did? OMG.
Sorry.
Have a good 'un.
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668. JLPR
11:04 AM AST on June 17, 2008
isn't that near 10.5N and 38W the circulation? =S
Ramsdis floater: Link
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667. TampaSpin
11:00 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
666. beell 10:53 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Beell now you know you can't speculate on here without concrete proof.........LMAO
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666. beell
2:47 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Tampa,
Will at least drag some moisture up into the GOM. Throw in a little UL divergence to support the wave at the surface.
Wave looks pretty decent on the last partial-coverage scat winds descending pass
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665. TEXASYANKEE43
2:47 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Did someone get out of the wrong side of the bed or what? Gee Taz, lighten up a lil', will ya? It's all cool.
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664. Weather456
10:46 AM AST on June 17, 2008
Google Earth Browser Plugin
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663. JLPR
10:46 AM AST on June 17, 2008
umm well I see no new convection with the wave/mid-low so for the moment its dead... for the moment =P

It is interesting that the wave/low moisture field exists, it hasn't been eaten by the dry air so this could actually refire =S
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662. Weather456
10:35 AM AST on June 17, 2008
Taz, comment section
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661. TampaSpin
10:38 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
658. beell 10:33 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
641. and 642.
Hey Tampa,
Watching this t-wave near 20N/87W also. Also noticed the mid-level SW-NE oriented trough over the GOM. It may work itself into an ULL as you had posted yesterday.

The interaction may be something else to watch anyway.


Beell i agree with that....sometimes an ULL will enhance development.

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660. Patrap
9:37 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
One Graph from the Iowa flooding..Link
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659. Tazmanian
7:35 AM PDT on June 17, 2008
am out in tell later
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658. beell
2:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
641. and 642.
Hey Tampa,
Watching this t-wave near 20N/87W also. Also noticed the mid-level SW-NE oriented trough over the GOM. It may work itself into an ULL as you had posted yesterday.

The interaction may be something else to watch anyway.
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657. sporteguy03
2:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
http://www.wunderground.com/tripplanner/index.asp
Weatherbrat also the information centers on Interstates can help especially Welcome centers as they update road conditions there.

Taz those are good resources as I drove in Iowa in '93 and they helped me drive around I-80 by the time Weatherbrat leaves the information could change.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
655. hurricane23
10:27 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
Looks like a pretty stable environment around this central atlantic wave with strong westerlies across most of the caribbean which all in all is not to ideal for TC development.Wave should bring blustery conditions to the islands during the next few days. Adrian

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654. Patrap
9:29 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
Iowa USGS current Flood Information,


Welcome to The United States Geological Survey

Current Flood Information Link

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653. weatherbrat
8:30 AM CST on June 17, 2008
Thanks for the links guys!
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651. TampaSpin
10:27 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
648. weatherbrat 10:24 AM EDT on June 17, 2008Nationl Wether Service River
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650. Patrap
9:28 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
USGS website for River Stages and Forecasts Link
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649. nrtiwlnvragn
10:28 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
648. weatherbrat

Link
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648. weatherbrat
8:22 AM CST on June 17, 2008
TampaSpin~

Our family reunion may be spending time sandbagging!! Who knows, but I would love to help out if I can while I'm there and needed.

Any links yet on the Mississippis River forecast?

Thanks!
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647. TampaSpin
10:21 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
456 take a look off the tip of Honduras
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646. pearlandaggie
2:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
interesting...

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645. TampaSpin
10:17 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
643. weatherbrat 10:16 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Weatherbrat good look avoiding all that flooding......it is really bad.
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644. Weather456
10:10 AM AST on June 17, 2008
Updated to inlude climtology of the last 2 weeks of June.
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643. weatherbrat
8:14 AM CST on June 17, 2008
Taz~

Yes, I'm going by car and would like a link. I had it up the other day, I thought thru Weather Underground, but I can't find it now. That's why I asked if anyone could give me a link.

Thanks!
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642. TampaSpin
10:14 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
tip of Honduras Link
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641. TampaSpin
9:54 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
NE of the tip of Honduras there appears to be some rotation starting. This needs monitored closely as a possible sleeper. Shear is marginal at best but, Shaer is forcast to decrease in that area.....This is just an observation.
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640. Weather456
10:01 AM AST on June 17, 2008
634. DestinJeff 9:42 AM AST on June 17, 2008
Is there any historical data, or analysis done that shows correlation between storms that enter the southern Carib vs the northern? Such as, strength/path/etc...

I just mention that because of recent history with Ivan/Dennis, which I think both took that low track into the Carib.

Recent history, though, doesn't infer any statistical significance.


I dont have any historical statistics but I know storms that enter from the Southern/Central portion of the Eastern Caribbean, stand a better chance of intensifying in the Central/Western Caribbean. Compared Georges 1998 and Jeanne 2004 to Isidore, Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Emily, Dean, Felix.

I know some people say there is a dead zone in the SE Caribbean, just north of Venezuela but after Ivan, Ernesto and Felix, this should be reevaluated.
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639. Tazmanian
7:02 AM PDT on June 17, 2008
i think he want some links so if your this telling him to go to some dot site and look at some in then thats not helping him out any
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638. sporteguy03
1:58 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Brat,
Are you going by car or boat? If by car just check the DOT sites for each state you will pass thru many have 511 numbers you can call for traffic/road conditions and go to your Triple AAA office if you have one.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
637. weatherbrat
7:53 AM CST on June 17, 2008
Good Morning All ~

My family and I are heading to Iowa later this week for a family reunion. My question is, does anyone have a link to the Mississippi River forecast? I need to analysis this so we know which route to take from Florida to Iowa.

Thank you and I hope you all have a great day!
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636. Tazmanian
6:47 AM PDT on June 17, 2008



dont that look like the gulf of MX in that photo???

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - European researchers said on Monday they discovered a batch of three "super-Earths" orbiting a nearby star, and two other solar systems with small planets as well.



They said their findings, presented at a conference in France, suggest that Earth-like planets may be very common.

"Does every single star harbor planets and, if yes, how many?" asked Michel Mayor of Switzerland's Geneva Observatory. "We may not yet know the answer but we are making huge progress towards it," Mayor said in a statement.

The trio of planets orbit a star slightly less massive than our Sun, 42 light-years away towards the southern Doradus and Pictor constellations. A light-year is the distance light can travel in one year at a speed of 186,000 miles a second, or about 6 trillion miles.

The planets are bigger than Earth -- one is 4.2 times the mass, one is 6.7 times and the third is 9.4 times.

They orbit their star at extremely rapid speeds -- one whizzing around in just four days, compared with Earth's 365 days, one taking 10 days and the slowest taking 20 days.

Mayor and colleagues used the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher or HARPS, a telescope at La Silla observatory in Chile, to find the planets.

More than 270 so-called exoplanets have been found. Most are giants, resembling Jupiter or Saturn. Smaller planets closer to the size of Earth are far more difficult to spot.

None can be imaged directly at such distances but can be spotted indirectly using radio waves or, in the case of HARPS, spectrographic measurements. As a planet orbits, it makes the star wobble very slightly and this can be measured.

"With the advent of much more precise instruments such as the HARPS spectrograph ... we can now discover smaller planets, with masses between 2 and 10 times the Earth's mass," said Stephane Udry, who also worked on the study.

The team also said they found a planet 7.5 times the mass of Earth orbiting the star HD 181433 in 9.5 days. This star also has a Jupiter-like planet that orbits every three years.

Another solar system has a planet 22 times the mass of Earth, orbiting every four days, and a Saturn-like planet with a 3-year period.

"Clearly these planets are only the tip of the iceberg," said Mayor.

"The analysis of all the stars studied with HARPS shows that about one third of all solar-like stars have either super-Earth or Neptune-like planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days."
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635. presslord
9:46 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
yea Pat....we're on it...just thought I'd drop that hook in the water as well...this is a religious organization and I don't wanna get into a catfight with anyone here on that subject...so...if ther's any interest, send me a WU mail....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.