Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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183. NEwxguy
7:19 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Lets keep the golf talk going.
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182. presslord
3:19 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Golf = pasture pool.....
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179. 305st0rm
7:18 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
So.....lets talk about tropical weather
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178. 69Viking
2:14 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
171. mississippiwx23

Yep, I need to get there one of these days!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
177. MonkeeInDaTrunk
12:17 PM PDT on June 16, 2008
Go Tiger!!
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176. ATS3
7:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
CCHS NEED TO CHANGE YOUR PHOTO TO THE ONE IN FRONT OF THE MAP AT NHC
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175. NEwxguy
7:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Hmmmmmmmm!!!!
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174. presslord
3:15 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
...one love....one heart...let's get together and be alright.....
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173. mississippiwx23
7:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
(By the way, I can't remember the order of the words in the song...)
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171. mississippiwx23
7:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Florida Keys...thats where I wanna go...
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169. CybrTeddy
7:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Ah, finialy got my account back, my previous was weatherfromflorida, Thank goodness I remembered the password, I forgot it and thats why I really have not been on.
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168. presslord
3:12 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Viking!!!! That's what I'm talkin' 'bout!!!!!!!!
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167. MichaelSTL
2:08 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
f a dataset contains fewer than 30 points, being 10 from the top or ten from the bottom seems to me to put current conditions close to the middle of the bell curve, or average.

What about the faster rate of melting than last year??? It started May as much higher than last year but ended the month at about the same extent, same thing (faster melt than 2007) happened the months before too (since the maximum extent). Considering how extreme last year was, the fact that it reached last year's level at any point is incredible. Obviously you are a world-class fossil fuel-lobby paid denialist...
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166. 69Viking
2:06 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
155. presslord

Jamaica, Bahama, Key Largo, Kokomo
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
164. presslord
3:11 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
OK...but let the record show: I tried to refocus on the tropics.....
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163. weatherfromFlorida
7:09 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Jp, it dosen't matter who, We need to all get together on this here blog, and talk about tropical weather.
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162. mississippiwx23
7:06 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
STL,

I am not saying don't cut emissions and everything else that they are calling for, because in the end it will help the environment for the better...and protect against any fear people may have about GW. But, as any good meteorologist knows, 10-20 years is not enough time to get a trend when dealing with weather data. So lets wait.
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160. moonlightcowboy
2:02 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Sorry, couldn't resist. A more serious problem is drinking water. Yet, the AGW alarmists have caused the ethanol farce which uses 10,000 liters of water to produce five liters of energy-inefficient ethanol. Yeah, that's real rocket "science" at work! Geeeesh!

The world is facing much bigger, pressing problems with drinking water and food shortages and escalating prices with a growing population, than any unproven anthropogenics causing the planet to warm. Incidentally, a little warming is a good thing - more conducive to agriculture and growing food and less people die! Substantially more people die each year from freezing cold than warm summer temperatures, but you only hear the media hype of those statistics. Go figure!!!
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159. pottery
3:06 PM AST on June 16, 2008
LOL Press, you got yourself into this......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
158. weatherfromFlorida
7:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Guys! Enough with the Global Warming stuff! We may soon have 92L, and were all arguing about off topic stuff.
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157. Drakoen
7:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Rather impressive SAL surge in the CATL and EATL.
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156. SWFLgazer
6:56 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Re: Arctic Sea Ice extent...

If a dataset contains fewer than 30 points, being 10 from the top or ten from the bottom seems to me to put current conditions close to the middle of the bell curve, or average.
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155. presslord
3:04 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
...rum....sugar...

c'mon....somebody help me here....
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154. lawntonlookers
3:02 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Very heavy storms lined up from norther PA through NY. Heading for Sully neck of the woods.
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153. MichaelSTL
2:01 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Like I said, wait another 20-30 years. If we are still going through rapid warming

LOL... They always say that... they said the same thing 20-30 years ago (and no, they were not all calling for an ice age in the 1970s, as explained here) and still do now even with more and more evidence... it may be far to late by then to do anything...
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151. pottery
2:53 PM AST on June 16, 2008
The tropical wave will be hard-pressed to stay active, with the pool of Sahara Dust to the north and west of it. I would suggest that it will retain some of its convection until it crosses the Islands, then it may have more moisture around it for it to re-generate.
In the Atlantic, with the dry conditions facing it, its not looking hopeful...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
150. presslord
2:58 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
mango....palm.....coconut....banana...

...there...

...I felt obliged to say something tropical....
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149. mississippiwx23
6:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
146. Drakoen 6:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I hope something forms soon for the sake of this blog...


I hope so too, so we can get the heat out of the tropics while there isn't quite the risk of a strong system.
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148. BajaALemt
1:38 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Afternoon folks! QUIET tropics! So, I see the blog has "June/November syndrome" *giggles*
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147. NEwxguy
6:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Drak,I second that
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146. Drakoen
6:57 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I hope something forms soon for the sake of this blog...
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145. mississippiwx23
6:52 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
JP,

Understand. Anyway, I don't like to argue about it. Like I said, wait another 20-30 years. If we are still going through rapid warming, then we can talk. Otherwise, I will wait.

(This doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to reduce emissions and other important environmental aspects. GW doesn't need to be brought into play to know that its a good idea to keep the environment healthy.)
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144. presslord
2:53 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
my wife and kids call me an idiot all the time...it's really no big deal...ya get used to it after a while.....
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143. 0741
6:50 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
cchsweatherman came save day with TROPICAL UPDATE
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141. 69Viking
1:45 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
133. cchsweatherman

Wow, a tropical weather related post! Kudos CCHS!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3074
140. all4hurricanes
6:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
There is a line of very severe storms heading though the mid Atlantic states I haven't seen so many hail storms all lined up it should be interesting going out in them take shelter people of VA NC MA ect
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2374
139. NEwxguy
6:44 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ONONDAGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JORDAN...
MOVING EAST AT 41 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BALDWINSVILLE BY 230 PM EDT...
CAMILLUS...VILLAGE GREEN AND MARCELLUS BY 235 PM EDT...
WESTVALE...FAIRMOUNT AND LIVERPOOL BY 240 PM EDT...
SYRACUSE...WESTVALE AND ONONDAGA BY 245 PM EDT...
DE WITT AND EAST SYRACUSE BY 250 PM EDT...

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138. 0741
6:44 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161734
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
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137. MichaelSTL
1:47 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
When we have measured or detected cycles that last 20-30, it can be assumed there are also cycles that last 100-1000 years (which we do know about), so everything could be different 50 years from now. So, just go with the punches and don't worry too much about it. We don't have any control anyway.

In order to say that man-made global warming is a scam, you also have to prove that greenhouse gasses don't exist, or that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas, which it has been extensively proven to be; attributing (read RickyRood's blogs on this) the causes of climate change also goes far beyond simply saying that "A causes B", it also sees if other factors can possibly explain observations as well (in reality, it is a combination of many factors, some of which even counteract warming, like declining solar activity since the 1950s and aerosols). Also, there are cycles that occur over very long periods due to orbital variations (Milankovitch/Ice Age cycles) and the like, but those are vastly too slow to explain the extremly fast warming that has been occurring over the last centrury ("extremely fast" is relative of coures, I mean on a geological, not human, scale), and there have been no other changes that can possibly explain the warming.
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136. guygee
6:47 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Re:119. MichaelSTL 6:26 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

Good points, not to mention SSTs and total oceanic heat content.

BTW folks, the climate research groups at the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) interpret raw microwave data collected from instruments such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU-A1 and -A2) on the NASA POES satellites and convert the readings to temperature over broad layers in the atmosphere. A couple of links here:
Et Tu LT?
The tropical lapse rate quandary
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
135. mississippiwx23
6:45 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
jp, we know you aren't an idiot, so no need to worry about it. But also, you can't expect GW, severe weather, or ice coverage to not be talked about when Dr. Masters brings it up so often. It's a dead time, thus a good time to discuss other topics.
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133. cchsweatherman
6:40 PM GMT on June 16, 2008


Based upon the latest satellite imagery, it appears that the tropical wave may be attempting to catch the lower mid-level circulation. In addition, both the circulation and tropical wave appear to be moving towards the WNW. There is also some better organization occuring with this as well now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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