Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

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The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La NiƱa continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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233. Weather456
4:34 PM AST on June 16, 2008
228. weathermanwannabe 4:33 PM AST on June 16, 2008

It will be "goner" when it dissipates in the EPAC. As for development, not likely, as I have yet to see sound evidence of a LLCC.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
232. Nolehead
8:34 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
dang Rocco had his chances....tiger's the man...bad knee and all...so any who, looks like the Atl looks kinda interesting..
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231. TEXASYANKEE43
8:34 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I never saw a playoff go to the 91st hole. Incredible!
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230. NEwxguy
8:34 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
even with the mid level circulation,its got so much going against it
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229. 69Viking
3:19 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
211. Greyelf

LOL! Until the tropics heat up we'll see a lot of off topic discussions we can't control!
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228. weathermanwannabe
4:30 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
227. Weather456 4:27 PM EDT on June 16, 2008 In other words, it looks like a goner?
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227. Weather456
4:00 PM AST on June 16, 2008
Been investigating and collecting some data on the present wave. Found something interesting, for a normal wave, a band of easterlies accompanies the wave roughly between 500 mb and 700 mb. For strong tropical waves, like the one mentioned here, the band of easterly AEJ extended to 300 mb, well into the troposphere. Most waves found with this characteristic, develops under normal, favorable conditions. The other conditions needed for a TWAVE to develop a surface vortex is convergence east of axis, and divergence west of the axis and the wave must tilt eastward with height and have enough low level horizontal vorticity or spin.

The very main factor hindering this wave development isnt so much the dust, even though its clearly there, but rather, its closeness to the ITCZ and Equator. The ITCZ is a very confluent feature in the low levels west of 40W, meaning the SE and NE trades converge in such a pattern, it prevents a LLC from forming, that's why this wave is only displaying rotation above the friction layer in the mid-lower levels.

From the visible image below, we can clearly see the wave axis along the excellent inverted-V pattern with the mid/low-level circulation displaced to the west due to the band of easterly outlined above.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
225. NEwxguy
8:23 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
buddy,please do
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224. weatherguy03
4:23 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Ha Ha!! Hey I will take the golf play by play anyday over that fake GW stuff.
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223. Baybuddy
8:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
So if I keep trying to give this dying wave cpr in a vain effort to have something to talk about thats okay????
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222. Greyelf
3:21 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
RE: 217. Probably someone who complains about both:)

Yup. That's me!
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221. TEXASYANKEE43
8:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
looks like Rocko's wheels fell off.....
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220. NEwxguy
8:20 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
JFV,the wave in catl,doesn't look promising,struggling to maintain convection.
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218. NEwxguy
8:15 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
lol,Greyelf,I think I'll take the golf play by play
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217. weatherguy03
4:17 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
211.

Probably someone who complains about both:)
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215. HurricaneSammy
8:15 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Jp?

Though you Lived in florida ...
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214. Drakoen
8:15 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
205. louisianaboy444 8:06 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I seen our wave fell apart...they tend to do that this time of year...with increased shear over the tropical Atlantic hopefully more waves will do that this year out there...I would most certainly like a 3rd year straight of no major hurricane hitting the CONUS or anywhere for that matter...i tend to believe that global warming is increasing shear over the atlantic but of course i will be careful when i say that becuase there is no proof of that....whatever it is its working hope it stays that way....


Shear isn't whats doing it. Its the SAL to the north that is limiting the convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
213. HurricaneSammy
8:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Lol ....

Sudden Death

For People Who Don't know golf like me it sounds that someone is droping dead

Lol
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211. Greyelf
3:12 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
I'm not sure what's worse. GW arguments or golf play by play. *shakes head*
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210. mississippiwx23
8:09 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Wow, sudden death golf. I think Tiger is going to pull it out...

Wave is trying to hold itself together...but its going to have to fight off a lot to survive.
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209. TEXASYANKEE43
8:09 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Sudden Death WOW!!!
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208. moonlightcowboy
3:07 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
206. That's pretty tropical! Key West, no doubt, has had its share of canes!

What a match! Ugh!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
207. Baybuddy
8:03 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Sudden Death Baby!!!

But seriously.....am I the only one who wants to smack those "GET IN THE HOLE" morons?
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206. HurricaneSammy
8:00 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
About Key west ....

Jimmy Buffet

Nibblin' on sponge cake,
watchin' the sun bake;
All of those tourists covered with oil.
Strummin' my six string on my front porch swing.
Smell those shrimp%u2013
They're beginnin' to boil.

Wasted away again in Margaritaville,
Searchin' for my lost shaker of salt.
Some people claim that there's a woman to blame,
But I know it's nobody's fault.

Don't know the reason,
Stayed here all season
With nothing to show but this brand new tattoo.
But it's a real beauty,
A Mexican cutie, how it got here
I haven't a clue.

Wasted away again in Margaritaville,
Searchin' for my lost shaker of salt.
Some people claim that there's a woman to blame,
Now I think,%u2013 hell it could be my fault.

I blew out my flip flop,
Stepped on a pop top;
Cut my heel, had to cruise on back home.
But there's booze in the blender,
And soon it will render
That frozen concoction that helps me hang on.

Wasted away again in Margaritaville
Searchin' for my lost shaker of salt.
Some people claim that there's a woman to blame,
But I know, it's my own damn fault.
Yes, and some people claim that there's a woman to blame,
And I know it's my own damn fault

_____________________________________________
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205. louisianaboy444
8:02 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I seen our wave fell apart...they tend to do that this time of year...with increased shear over the tropical Atlantic hopefully more waves will do that this year out there...I would most certainly like a 3rd year straight of no major hurricane hitting the CONUS or anywhere for that matter...i tend to believe that global warming is increasing shear over the atlantic but of course i will be careful when i say that becuase there is no proof of that....whatever it is its working hope it stays that way....
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204. Stormchaser2007
7:50 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Ah looks alright... for now. Sorry to interrupt your golf!

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200. moonlightcowboy
2:41 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
JP = color man

Good play by play, JP! :P
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
199. sarasotaman
7:36 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I feel sad to see someone from St.Louis on here callin people names. Now i see why i left Stl.
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197. 69Viking
2:33 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
193. jphurricane2006

I've not paid attention to his comments so I didn't read that. I just checked the Buoy south of Destin in the Gulf and it's reading 87.3 degree water temperature in mid June, WOW! If any of these fronts drop a low off in that bath water it could get interesting!
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196. PasturePool
1:34 PM CST on June 16, 2008
182.
Correct!
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194. CaneAddict
7:32 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
181. MichaelSTL 7:19 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

You are very self-centered, You think you're always right and that its forbidden for anyone to agrue there own opinions, Please just leave the blog if you can't be and adult and have folks disagree with you without you resulting to name-calling or insults.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:28 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
20:30 PM IST June 16 2008
=====================================

At 20:30 PM IST, Depression BOB02-2008 over north Bay of Bengal off Bangladesh coast moved in a northwesterly direction and crossed Bangladesh coast near 89.5E between 11:00 - 12:00 PM UTC and currently lies over the coastal Bangladesh near 22.0N 89.5E, or a bout 130 kms east-southeast of Calcutta, India. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off north Orissa, west Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.

The strong low level westerlies to the south of the system and upper level divergence continues to support the deep convection, However the moderate to high vertical wind shear and land interaction are not supportive for any further intensification of this system.

In association with the system, broken intense to very intense convective clouds are seen over the northwest Bay of Bengal and moderate to intense convection is seen over remaining parts of north Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal to the north of 15.0N.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Coastal India
===========================================

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and north Orrisa during next 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Jarkhand, south Orrisa and Chhattisgarh during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h are likely along and off north Orrisa and West Bengal coasts during next 24 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
191. 69Viking
2:25 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
184. jphurricane2006

How do you know when someone bans someone?
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190. mississippiwx23
7:26 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I like Tiger, and I want him to win...usually. But in these wonderful weather conditions ;) I am finding myself wanting Rocco. He is just too cool under pressure.
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189. sarasotaman
7:23 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Even my wife is watchen the golf. I never thought she cared lol. i love it. go tiger
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188. JLPR
3:18 PM AST on June 16, 2008
umm
Well the tropical wave and the mid level low seem to have a big problem ahead. Lots and lots of SAL and dry air. SAL moves just like clouds but if anything tries to get going with such a solid area of SAL to the north it may pull some of that SAL into the circulation effectively weakening the system so I don't expect much from this wave if as Cchs said its moving WNW into the SAL. It would need a very impressive explosion of convection to fight off the SAL or its done =P thats all I have to add =).
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
187. moonlightcowboy
2:22 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
185. Same way I felt. Life has a way of mellowing one though. He'll come around in a few years maybe! I like Michael. He just needs to learn some manners!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
186. 305st0rm
7:20 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
The CATL wave seems to be losing more and more convection everytime i look at it.
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185. mississippiwx23
7:19 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Well, I guess STL is useless. Too bad too, cuz I like his tropical posts.
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183. NEwxguy
7:19 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Lets keep the golf talk going.
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Viewing: 233 - 183

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.