Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

Share this Blog
2
+

The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 283 - 233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

283. moonlightcowboy
5:41 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
280. Skye, I hate to read that. Ugh! We know already that the nGOM, especially in NOLA, Cameron, LA and the entire MS coast can not afford any substantial storm with major recovery efforts still very much in the process.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
282. Baybuddy
10:40 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
NOLA is no better off than they were pre-Katrina. Imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
281. moonlightcowboy
5:40 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Good posts, Pat. Thanks. It seems that the flooding is not over yet for some areas. Devastating, no doubt!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
280. Skyepony (Mod)
10:38 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
NOAA: New Orleans at risk from Cat. 2 hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
279. Patrap
5:37 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Wisconsin RED CROSS Shelters Link

IOWA Shelters Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
278. Weather456
6:37 PM AST on June 16, 2008
In case anyone is wondering - John Coleman is the founder of The Weather Channel.

lol rather interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. Baybuddy
10:34 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Thanks cowboy. It is funny, post a differing view, and some folks treat you like you are Rudolph Hess or something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
276. moonlightcowboy
5:36 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
270. That "sneeker" maybe, Drak, that we've had some concerns about with some possible early CV development?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
275. Patrap
5:35 PM CDT on June 16, 2008


Twenty-nine Iowa counties now also have presidential disaster declarations, and the governor says he hopes to get more of the 83 state disaster counties on the federal list as soon as possible. "It not only allows us to help with state resources into these 83 counties for both individual assistance in some cases and public assistance, but it also frees up significant federal resources to help individuals, businesses and communities," says Culver.

If you have flooding damage, you're asked to first register with FEMA, so you can report it. The number is 1-800-621-FEMA.

Wisconsin:
FEMA Disaster Assistance Available
MADISON - Residents of five counties can use a toll-free application telephone number and on-line registration to apply for assistance recovering from damage caused by severe storms, tornadoes and flooding that have occurred since June 5.

President Bush issued a disaster declaration on Saturday for Columbia, Crawford, Milwaukee, Sauk and Vernon counties. The declaration authorized FEMA Individual Assistance for eligible applicants. Other counties may be added after further evaluation.

The Individual Assistance program includes a wide range of aid, including emergency home repair, temporary disaster housing, replacement grants for serious disaster-related needs and expenses not covered by insurance or assistance programs.

FEMA disaster assistance covers basic needs only and will not normally compensate you for your entire loss. If you have insurance, the government may help pay for basic needs not covered under your insurance policy.

State and federal officials encourage those affected by the disaster to apply for assistance immediately by calling this toll-free number, 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or going online to www.fema.gov. The toll-free line will be in operation 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., seven days a week, until further notice. Those with speech or hearing impairments may call TTY 1-800-462-7585.

Officials remind affected residents they must register with FEMA at the above numbers or Web site to be eligible for federal assistance. Filing damage reports with state or county emergency managers or voluntary agencies will not start the federal disaster-assistance process.

All residents are also encouraged to get involved with the recovery by helping spread the word about available assistance. Tell your neighbor.

When applying for help, be sure to have the following information available:

•Your current telephone number;
•Your address at the time of the disaster and the address where you now are staying;
•Your Social Security number, if available;
•A general list of damages and losses you suffered;
•If insured, the name of your company or agent and your policy number;
•General financial information;
•Bank account coding if you wish to speed up your assistance with direct deposit.

Some disaster aid does not have to be paid back, while other help may come in the form of low-interest loans. The FEMA representative will explain the details to you when you call.

U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) offers low-interest disaster loans for homeowners, renters and businesses of all sizes to repair or replace damaged or destroyed property.

FEMA coordinates the Federal government’s role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terrorism.

For more information on Wisconsin disaster recovery, visit www.fema.gov or http://emergencymanagement.wi.gov/.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
274. Weather456
6:33 PM AST on June 16, 2008
268. JFV 6:25 PM AST on June 16, 2008
I read your post Weather456! But, according to what you wrote, it could certainly begin to develop beyond 24 hours from now?


The area will still be tracked and monitored for signs of increase organization due to favorable upper winds and warm SSTs. This feature is expected to be near the Antilles by Friday.

It will be watch but no guarantees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
273. Drakoen
10:34 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Blog having problems again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
272. moonlightcowboy
5:32 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
I've seen that article, Baybuddy. Nice piece.

In case anyone is wondering - John Coleman is the founder of The Weather Channel.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
271. Baybuddy
10:31 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
2nd Day with no air conditioning. Aargh! Repair is under warranty though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
270. Drakoen
10:25 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
The GFS 18z run looks like it wants to try to develop something in the CATL 6 days from now .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
269. Patrap
5:23 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Federal Information on Flood Disaster. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
267. sporteguy03
10:15 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
JP is 436 flooded? Tom Terry did a rain dance lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
266. Baybuddy
10:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I have been around for four years. Call me a troll if you must.... but why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. Patrap
5:20 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
For our friends in Iowa and other Flood stricken Areas..
I modified my Hurricane Aftermath page for the Flood calamity.

Tips and helpful Suggestions:
####################################################

* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.

flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a flood, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety

* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.
* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.
* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.
* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.
* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.
* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.
* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.
* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.
* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).
* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.

Sanitation and Hygiene

It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.
The waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations

Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes

Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the Flood would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health

The days and weeks after the flood are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Flood

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a �Major Disaster� for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Flood Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major flood.

SIGNS OF FLOOD RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING FLOOD RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
264. all4hurricanes
10:21 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Looks like a TS is forming in west pacific
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
263. Baybuddy
10:14 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
lol some ppl may find that article offensive

Hope not....but hey, debate is healthy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
262. Weather456
6:08 PM AST on June 16, 2008
261. JFV 6:08 PM AST on June 16, 2008
So Weather, what are it's developing potentials my friend?


development seems unlikely over the next 24 hrs. I posted my thoughts here. Comment posted June 16
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
260. Weather456
6:00 PM AST on June 16, 2008
256. plywoodstatenative 5:47 PM AST on June 16, 2008

We had a wave in late May that had a closed surface circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
259. plywoodstatenative
9:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
adrian, I know I saw that nasty looking line earlier moving up from the Miami area. Any chance of rain over the Lake? What we get down here is all good, but the lake or north of the Lake is where we need the rain in reality.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
258. plywoodstatenative
9:47 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
rain, heck I got nailed by a small piece of hail up in WPB over the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
257. hurricane23
5:47 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
Afternoon!

If everything works out as planned a good wet couple of days is in the forcast for southeast florida with every afternoon having about a 60-80 percent of widespread thunderstorm activity over the area.As our winds shift to the SW which in gerenal means wetter conditions for us along the eastcoast.NWS is forcasting about 2-4 inches with higher amounts in localize areas.A low level trof will be the culprit.

We'll see what happens. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
256. plywoodstatenative
9:43 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
weather, people who are really unknown to us regs and come in here and post such articles. well they do that to either be a troll or a P.I.T.A (Think about that in your head.) Anyways I want to see what that wave does when it gets to the carib, thats if it survives.

But echoing the comment earlier in the day when it had what looked like a closed COC: 16 days into the hurricane season and we used to have a wave with a coc that appeared closed. I think that little comment will be looked back on when the season really picks up. What worries me though is the SST forecast for the three big months, if the CV season gets bad, combined with either or both of these factors: shear factors and sst's. Then we best bend over and kiss our rears good bye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
255. Weather456
5:32 PM AST on June 16, 2008
254. Baybuddy 5:31 PM AST on June 16, 2008

lol some ppl may find that article offensive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
254. Baybuddy
9:30 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/19842304.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
253. Weather456
5:21 PM AST on June 16, 2008
SSTs along the trajectory....if it wasnt for the dust and ITCZ.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
252. Chicklit
4:21 PM EST on June 16, 2008
Finally substantial rain in east Central Florida...Fantastic.
That was historic.
Sorry about Rocco...what a guy!
Man, he must think he's been dreaming.
Gets in by qualifying! Ties Tiger for the US Open title on Sunday, plays 18 on Monday and ties Tiger again, and has to go to sudden death. While Rocco had a great run, it looks like Fate meant for Tiger to win.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
251. all4hurricanes
9:24 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
we already have had 4cm of rain in VA but no hail here just a lot of wind lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
250. moonlightcowboy
4:24 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
- K'man, thanks for that report. Wow, broad circulation, etc; it's worth watching for that next report for sure.

- Drak, that could be some helpful good news. Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
249. pearlandaggie
9:10 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
245. i got ya! i just thought that since more precipitation equals wetter soil, that the severity of the outbreak would be reduced. thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
248. Weather456
5:02 PM AST on June 16, 2008
243. kmanislander 4:57 PM AST on June 16, 2008
Hi Everyone

Here is a link to a buoy located at 4N 38W or just a bit to the SW of the Atl wave's current position. The wind is out of the NNW which indicates a surface low with the wave. The water is plenty warm so it does have a chance to develop further down the road. The data is more than 2 hrs old but an update at the buoy should come any time now.

The data also shows how the wind has shifted as the wave approached that location.


Link


That observation is almost 10 degrees from the wave axis which is centered 29W/7N. If that is correct, then that is some broad circulation there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
247. Drakoen
9:02 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
244. Greyelf 8:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Since the blog is slow, I'll go ahead and ask this question about your picture, Drakoen. (RE post 240.)

Now, bear in mind, I don't know anything about average temperatures for any time of the year. I'm just curious if the warmer temperatures to the SE of New Zealand for July-September is normal.


I'm not sure about that. My focus is mainly the Atlantic and the EPAC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
246. Drakoen
9:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
241. moonlightcowboy 8:57 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
240. Ugh, Drak. How about some good news, heh? Not looking too good is it?


Well the good new is that the CFS has been forecasting for above-average shear through the GOM and of the eastern Seaboard; however, 31 day averages show favorable shear (below average) has been present across those regions. So it will be a wait and see if the shear increases across these regions come July and August.


(orange and red colors indicated below average vertical wind shear)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
245. Weather456
4:57 PM AST on June 16, 2008
242. pearlandaggie 4:57 PM AST on June 16, 2008

I think you misunderstood what some were saying. There will always be SAL, but there is suppose to be an expected decrease in the rate of outbreaks. And its June, how can we conclude anything until the season ends?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. Greyelf
3:56 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
Since the blog is slow, I'll go ahead and ask this question about your picture, Drakoen. (RE post 240.)

Now, bear in mind, I don't know anything about average temperatures for any time of the year. I'm just curious if the warmer temperatures to the SE of New Zealand for July-September is normal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. kmanislander
8:54 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Hi Everyone

Here is a link to a buoy located at 4N 38W or just a bit to the SW of the Atl wave's current position. The wind is out of the NNW which indicates a surface low with the wave. The water is plenty warm so it does have a chance to develop further down the road. The data is more than 2 hrs old but an update at the buoy should come any time now.

The data also shows how the wind has shifted as the wave approached that location.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
242. pearlandaggie
8:54 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
i was under the impression that the Sahel had had enough precipitation to severely limit the SAL outbreaks...guess i was mistaken! (certainly not the first time)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
241. moonlightcowboy
3:55 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
240. Ugh, Drak. How about some good news, heh? Not looking too good is it?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
240. Drakoen
8:46 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
I've been monitoring the CFS forecasts everyday and its finally showing .5 degree above average temperatures throughout the MDR, eastern Gulf, Bahamas, and of the Florida coast through the period of July-August-September.
Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. Weather456
4:44 PM AST on June 16, 2008
236. weathermanwannabe 4:42 PM AST on June 16, 2008

True

The ITCZ also has to pull northward. It has rather jump north over the past week. Also zonal shear has also pull north indicating the ridge over the ITCZ is also moving northwards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
237. extreme236
8:43 PM GMT on June 16, 2008
Well if it makes it into the Caribbean and there is lower shear that would probably make it a good candidate for development. Anyway, I will be going to a Viewing and I might be back in later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
236. weathermanwannabe
4:36 PM EDT on June 16, 2008
233. Weather456 4:36 PM EDT on June 16, 2008...Always appreciate your analysis..I just do not think that we will see any significant development from any of these these until we get further into the season come late July and August; then, once the "first" one makes TD status, threatens the Lesser Antilles, and moistens the way for the ones that follow (gets rid of some of the dry air to the North of the ITCZ), we will probably some good looking waves (coreolis and all) follow in succession from week to week from August through September..............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
235. Greyelf
3:36 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
RE: 229 - Yeah, I know. At least I could get behind talking about the College World Series, being in the Omaha area and all...

I'll wave some evil voodoo vibes to Rice so LSU can beat them tomorrow, Patrap.

Btw, Patrap, Omaha locals love LSU fans. They are always so fun (especially on TV).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
234. moonlightcowboy
3:28 PM CDT on June 16, 2008
227. Nice observations, 456. That makes perfect sense. I've never thought as little dust (especially early on) that was somewhat north of this wave, that dust was the largest inhibiting factor.

But, as it tracks westward the dust and dry air will continue to plague the system though. It's going to be difficult to maintain convection, but as it reaches the Caribbean conditions may change. Certainly, SSTs are conducive and shear is not that much of a factor either.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
233. Weather456
4:34 PM AST on June 16, 2008
228. weathermanwannabe 4:33 PM AST on June 16, 2008

It will be "goner" when it dissipates in the EPAC. As for development, not likely, as I have yet to see sound evidence of a LLCC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 283 - 233

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.