Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

It's probably able to maintain strong convection because the waters of the Africa coast are above 26C. Some of the stations out there are reporting 29C temperatures at that latitude which is believable looking at the NOAA SST products:Link.

High resolution quicksat imagery suggesting cyclonic turning induced by the surface westerlies east of 20W in the EATL.

we could be seeing 92L here vary soon but oh nos where

351. Drakoen 9:45 PM AST on June 14, 2008

Link to that station?....Cuz I'm not seeing any station reports.

could that Very impressive wave be come 92L?

W456, Link

They are actually ships but same difference lol.

355. Tazmanian 1:54 AM GMT on June 15, 2008
could that Very impressive wave be come 92L?

Unlikely. Waves like these could degenerate easily without the right conditions.

356. Drakoen 9:57 PM AST on June 14, 2008

Yea...I know the website...its good

There is a major area of Sahara dry air, and Dust, from Africa to 60W. This will tend to snuffout any Twaves that try to get established in the next week, in my opinion.
I am surprised at the models calling for something in the Trop. atl late this week, and Trinidad Met Service is forecasting 100% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday of next week.
They may be anticipating ITCZ rather than a wave, I dont know.

Any thoughts on this ?

Here's an animated gif I put together since we can't access RAMSDIS loops. Interesting what you can do if you're resourceful :-)

.

Thats a very impressive wave.
Pottery i think we will get some rain around the middle of the week,most likely from those two waves but we can't rule out the possiblity of the itzc.

Just stopping in before bed...thats a very impressive wave. I would have to say the best of the season so far...its not dying as fast as the others we have seen. I will sure be more interested in it if there is still something left of it by morning.

I bet it certainly caught the eyes of those at the NHC...good night all!

what kind of wind shear dos this Very impressive wave have??? and for how long???

Looks like it may be cresting, but the amount of discharge is incredible.





You can get real time data on Iowa river/streams here: Real-Time Data for Iowa

the detour route of Interstate 80 in Central Iowa.

Hey, all. I've been lurking since late May, but haven't made any comments yet this season. Thought you might be interested in how the effects of hurricanes can linger for years afterwards.

Hurricane Juan hit central Nova Scotia in late Sept. 2003 as a strong Cat. 1/weak Cat. 2. It was the worst tropical cyclone we'd experienced in recent memory. Only 2 people killed, but a lot of damage, including a huge number of trees blown down (more than would be expected from a storm of this size).

Today the chickens are coming home to roost. The Porter's Lake fire is in one of the areas hardest hit by Juan. Those blown-down trees, most of which were never cleared, have been dead for nearly 5 years and are now an enormous source of fuel for this fire. We haven't seen a serious forest fire in this province for decades, and while this pales in comparison to what goes on in California and Australia on a regular basis, it's bad tidings for us, especially as the summer hasn't yet officially begun.

It's quite possible we could suffer more damage from the aftereffects of Juan, nearly 5 years later, than we suffered from Juan himself.

Japan Meteorological Agency

No Current Tropical Cyclones/Bulletins

Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical, & Astronomical Services Administration

Tropical Weather Outlook
==========================
At 2:00 AM PST, A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 850 kms east of Southern Mindanao (6.0ºN 134.0ºE).

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 15Jun)
============================================
An area of convection (94W) located near 4.5N 139.1E or 305 NM south of Yap. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts flaring convection over a broad, but improving low level circulation center. A 2356z ASCAT image depicts 10-15 knots near the low level circulation center and recent microwave imagery confirms this broad circulation. Recent synoptic observations from Palau and Yap reports 0.5 an 1.0 mb pressure falls respectively over the past 24 hours. Upper level analysis depicts low vertical wind shear and favorable diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the surface is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 mb. Since the circulation is broad, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

Million flee south Chinese floods

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Footage showing the extent of the flood damage

Flooding in southern China has killed at least 55 people and forced more than one million to flee their homes, the government says.

Torrential downpours have affected nine provinces, China's civil affairs ministry says. More rain is expected in the coming days, forecasters warn.

Among those provinces badly hit is Sichuan, which is still reeling from last month's massive earthquake.

Some 87,000 people were killed or missing after the 12 May earthquake.

Farm land submerged

China's civil affairs ministry says nearly 1.3 million people have now fled their homes in the hardest hit regions as the bad weather continues.

Television showed boats cruising city streets, homeowners trying to bale out their home and rescuers handing out supplies of bottled water.

The flooding has submerged large areas of farm land and destroyed 6,600 homes in Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces, the official Xinhua news agency reports.

It says that many roads throughout the affected areas have been covered by landslides.

The flooding in the Pearl river delta is the worst for 50 years, forcing the Guangdong government to issue an emergency flood alert throughout the province, Xinhua says.

China 's rainy season causes chaos every year, often leaving many dead and forcing millions to leave their homes.

In the past, the Chinese authorities have warned that climate change may make the problem worse, the BBC's Daniel Griffiths in Beijing says.

Have you been caught up in the floods? Are you in the area? Send us your experiences using the form below.

You can send your pictures and moving footage to yourpics@bbc.co.uk or text them to +44 7725 100 100

When taking photos or filming please do not endanger yourself or others, take unnecessary risks or infringe any laws.

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Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7455239.stm

Published: 2008/06/15 08:12:35 GMT

© BBC MMVIII

Good morning everyone...just wanted to stop in and say that the satellite imagery this morning shows that the twave in the EATL is still intact and impressive. I don't have the RAMSDIS password to access the one imagery on their site but that image is more up to date and shows a very impressive wave.

Good Morning, none of the waves persisted as long as this one....

W456 what do you think of the wave...I can't click on the image for the RAMSDIS satellite imagery but it shows a small image of it and it looks impressive...here is the link:

Its the meteosat 4km floater that requires a password but you can see the small image.
Link

There is an anticyclone over the wave as well, and in general there is low shear in the region. SSTs are warm and the overall environment is fairly moist.

Extreme,

I use the loops on this page.

I'm gonna watch this wave to see if it retains convection during the diurnal min. If so, this wave may be in its pre-genesis stage, based on favorable atmospheric conditions and an invest may be assigned to it. Satellite imagery showed excellent cyclonic turning in the mid-lower levels with most of the convection ahead of the wave axis which is an indicator of AEJ. Though, its a bit far south so much development not expected for now. However, being that far south means it remains in the favorable region of SSTs and low shear....not good.

The NHC did not mention it in their 8am TWO, however they do have a nice image of it on their formation probability map:

Looks Great on the Penn State Site

Link

Thanks for the link W456, and I agree with everything you said.

I think one of the most significant things about this wave is that it is the first wave of the season to emerge off Africa and hold together and retain convection.

When's the next SCAT time for this wave?

If they made 91L an invest it shouldn't take much for this thing to become one lol

EUMETSAT also has some great imagery to view this wave, and updates frequently. Looks impressive.

381. weathersp 7:40 AM AST on June 15, 2008
When's the next SCAT time for this wave?

QuikSCAT missed it but ASCAT is usually behind QuikSCAT so I'll check ASCAT.

Really Nice image of it here in a 24 hr loop updating every hour.

Link

That must be the wave the 00Z ECMWF has picked up on at the end of the 8 frame run.......

Link

This thing is holding up like the wave that became Dean did, except when the Dean pre-cursor first emerged off Africa the convection weakened, and this one didn't.

This is the most current image I could find.. It was taken 45 minutes ago.

I would say this should be an invest??

390. thelmores 7:58 AM AST on June 15, 2008

It actual fits the criterion of an invest.

391

well, lets face it, we have seen much less classified this year! LOL

Well the NHC just mentioned it was a wave on their 8am TWD, so I guess we have to give them some time to take a look at this thing.

not to mention, it is closer to Dmin than Dmax!

looks more than a wave to me! LOL

Guess they just want to make sure it doesn't go "poof" like all the rest have this year!

it actually looks like a tropical depression but there have been many waves that have looked like that before and have fallen apart

The low latitude of the system is keeping it in favorable conditions, however it also makes it very hard for a circulation to form, not impossible, but hard.

Tropical storm Vamei in the Western Pacific formed at 1.4 degrees North, so anything can happen lol

Side by Side Comparison:

Wait which thing in the West pacific is the invest
theres a low SE of the Philippines or the low SW of Taiwan

Also what are the chances the wave off Africa is going to form

I will BBL...I'm starting to get to the point where I'm just sitting here waiting for new imagery to come in so I will be back in a couple hours or so.