Tornado kills four Boy Scouts in Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2008

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Tragedy struck a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa last night, when a tornado swept through, killing four Boy Scouts and injuring at least 48 people. A tornado warning was issued by the National Weather Service 12 minutes before the tornado hit the camp at 6:35 pm CDT, but it appears the campers never heard the sirens, either because the sirens were too far away from the remote camp, or because the storm caused a power outage in the nearest town of Blencoe, which silenced that town's tornado siren.

Tornadoes also hit southern Minnesota, eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska yesterday, and the Storm Prediction Center recorded 52 tornado reports. A tornado caused major damage in Manhattan and Kansas State University, tossing cars and destroying several businesses. A half-mile wide tornado hit the town of Chapman, destroying 60 homes and killing one person. Another person died in a mobile home in the Jackson County town of Soldier. Yesterday's deaths bring this season's tornado death toll up to 118--the most since 1998, when 130 people were killed.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) for the June 1, 2008 tornado that hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa. The tornado was embedded in a line of severe thunderstorms that swept through the state, and did not exhibit the classic hook-shaped echo one commonly sees in tornadoes. The most dangerous tornadoes commonly show a hook echo and tend to be spawned by "discrete supercells"--isolated thunderstorms that are not embedded in a solid line of thunderstorms.

Tornado activity forecast
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Slight" risk of severe weather across the Midwest today, from Michigan to Oklahoma. We can expect a few more tornadoes today in the affected region, although probably not as many twisters as were reported in yesterday's outbreak. The "Slight" risk of severe weather continues Friday across the Midwest, then shifts to the East Coast by Saturday.

Tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico between the Florida Keys and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The thunderstorm activity is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is moving northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. I'm not expecting this to develop, but we should keep an eye on it. None of the computer models are forecasting development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic in the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

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815. HurakanPR
5:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Weather 456, thank you for those videos,of hurricane George and Hugo in Puerto Rico, i was here for both hurricanes, and it was a terrible but amazing experience. Mother nature causes a lot of damage but i also admre the power of nature. Those videos brang lots of memories to me, i went outside a couple of time to face the hurricane winds. I know is dangerous but i can help it im a child of the caribbean.
814. JLPR
5:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
new blog! =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
813. nrtiwlnvragn
5:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
811. HurricaneKing
5:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
They have a floater on the fires north of me. Thats different.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
810. Drakoen
5:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Anything that forms in the Gulf will head to the Northwest with high pressure ridge axis of the eastern seaboard extending outward into the Gulf.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
808. Floodman
5:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Kman, glad to hear you guys got some rain; lack of the wet stuff seems to be a common complaint lately, unless you're in the upper midwest or New England...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
807. Cavin Rawlins
4:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Floaters
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
806. Cavin Rawlins
4:57 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Floaters
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
804. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
wait and see redrobin if anything official comes of it from NHC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
803. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:46 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
ssd floater three imagery invest gom
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
802. redrobin
4:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
A lurker with a question.....The local weather people are stressing the blob will be nothing but a blob. We here in Houston MAY see some rain from it. With that thought I saw the winds in the area of the blob is to drop from 10 to 15 kt to 10kt or less. How would this effect it or will it at all?
801. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
ssd site has a floater invest up too now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
800. CaneAddict
4:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
The NHC has the floater that is focused on the GOM disturbance labled "Invest", I guess they are planning on tagging it soon.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
799. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
not much kman just chillin waitin on the storms i just put a floater up on gom ir un enhance 11 micron loop i get updates every 10 minutes with my weather tap account on theses floaters
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
798. CaneAddict
4:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Wow, You have to appraise your self using a different handle?(Waverunner)
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
797. kmanislander
4:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Nothing up on the Navy site for the GOM at this time. I guess they will wait and see how it evolves over the rest of the day before deciding to tag, or not tag, the area officially
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
796. Drakoen
4:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
791. smmcdavid 4:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Drak, what are your thoughts on the GOM? Sorry if you've answered this, I haven't read back much.


Its a mid to upper level low. It needs to work it's way down to the surface and then we would look for subtropical development since you would have a cold-core low vertically stacked with the surface low. This is the type of development you see early in the season and late in the season where you have a persistent upper level low that sits there. Just something to monitor right now. Surface pressures are not falling and there is no indication of 850mb vorticity maximum.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
795. kmanislander
4:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Hi Flood

Everything ok so far in the NW Caribbean. lots of rain in the past 2 weeks which we really needed after months of drought.

That floater invest may not necessarily be a formal invest. Sometimes we have seen a floater headed up that way over an area of interest before it is officially designated an invest. Kind of odd but thats how it's been in the past
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
794. 69Viking
4:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Who has a good site to get local radar? Tired of the crappy TWC radar.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
793. waverunner
4:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
I'v been mostly an observer for about 2 years, just reading your comments and I think you all are very knowledgable. I look forward to STORMTOP's comments, what is wrong with that.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
792. kmanislander
4:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Hi Keeper,

What's up ?. The shear in the Caribbean is keeping the early season in check but the GOM looks as if it is trying to get something going since yesterday.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
791. smmcdavid
4:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Drak, what are your thoughts on the GOM? Sorry if you've answered this, I haven't read back much.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
790. Floodman
4:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
785. kmanislander

Kman, how have you been? Yep, I noticed the floater, but there is no invest named for it...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
789. Drakoen
4:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
780. atmoaggie 4:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
774: LMAO. Keep that up and you'll join him as a suspected extra user name.

Exactly my thoughts.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
788. Drakoen
4:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
We got a floater on the GOM system. Apparently there is some interest.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727
787. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
hello kman
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
786. Nolehead
4:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
P'cola!! WE GOT RAIN!!!
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
785. kmanislander
4:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Floater Invest: GOM
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
784. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
stormtop yeah
legend in hes own mind
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
783. Floodman
4:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
774. waverunner

Of course you would think so, as you are he! One click of the ignore button and *POOF!* one less problem for the billy goats Gruff...LOL

Back to lurking and working
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
782. Josh305
4:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Looks like a gulf storm brewing?
781. 69Viking
4:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
777. Nolehead

Lucky you! Where you located again? Nothing in FWB yet today.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
780. atmoaggie
4:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
774: LMAO. Keep that up and you'll join him as a suspected extra user name.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
779. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
mark 22.3n/93.2w disturb area
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
778. 69Viking
4:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
774. waverunner

Troll alert!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
777. Nolehead
4:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
WOW!!! we have rain!! can't believe my eyes...sure is about time!! that little swirl down south sure looks like it might be getting it's act together..sure won't take much for anything to start up nowadays in the good o'l GOM it seems..
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
776. 69Viking
4:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
767. jphurricane2006

I'll second that JP!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
775. weathers4me
4:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Could the swirl in the GOM be what the UNYSIS GFSx MON 16JUNE is hinting at or this another feature?
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
774. waverunner
4:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
STORMTOP has some very interesting and educational comments.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
773. 69Viking
4:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
752. smmcdavid

LOL! Sorry, couldn't resist!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3094
772. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
convection building in centre of swirl in sw gom nw boc area tops cooling with daytime heat movement appears stationary to slight w nw nudge
invest chances on this looks possible imo
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
771. atmoaggie
4:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Also, Emanuel has another hurricane-climate paper in BAMS. In this one he details some of the contributions to climate thats TC bring about.

Also admits that "it must be stressed that a good theoretical understanding of the environmental control of storm frequency is lacking." Then briefly covers what is known so far.

Lastly, he covers some of the arguments and responses from experts in the field concerning our historical hurricane record.

Rather lengthy, but here it is.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
770. Patrap
3:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
UNYSIS GFSx MON 16JUNE 0Z Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
768. atmoaggie
3:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Quiet on the Blog today with the diminished tropical activity I see. Global Warming

Ok, I'll bite.

Take a look at the BAMS article covering details from the International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change. Link.

Interesting details about hurricanes, historical proxies, evidence of increased activity in some locations during the little ice age, and caveats associated with interpretation of those proxies (such as track changes falsely showing an increase or decrease in activity).

You guys know that proxy data shows more activity 3800 to 1000 years ago on the N Gulf coast than we have had in the last 1000 (including our "records")?

(Oops, fixed link, sorry.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
766. Patrap
3:46 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
GOES WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link

Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)
3 Channels,IR,WV and Vis Low Cloud Product Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
765. Drakoen
3:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
In 6 days the UKMET office will be issuing their forecast for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30727

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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