Invest 91 not expected to develop; wild June weather continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008

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A tropical wave approaching the coast of South America near the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has developed some spin and a bit a heavy thunderstorm activity. This disturbance has been labeled Invest 91 by NHC this morning, but does not appear to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Water temperatures are warm enough and shear is low enough to allow some development, but dry air on the west side of the disturbance is limiting its thunderstorm activity. The disturbance should move ashore over South America by Thursday before a tropical depression can form.

Wind shear is very high over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain high for the coming week. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the coming week. However, wind shear is forecast to be low along the northern coast of South America and in the waters offshore of Panama and Coast Rica. We will need to watch this area for development early next week when the moisture from Invest 91 arrives.

Wild June weather across the U.S.
It's good to be back blogging again! I had a great week of relaxing and recharging in the Bitteroot Mountains of Montana the past week. It was pretty nuts to go for a hike yesterday--35° with heavy snow and driving wind--then come back to the sweltering east with the vegetation going bonkers from all the heavy rain of the past week. An unusually pronounced kink in the jet stream is responsible, which allows cold air to spill southward over the Western U.S., while at the same time pumping plenty of hot, moist air northwards into the Eastern U.S. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model indicates a continuation of a more active than usual jet stream the remainder of June, so expect plenty more wild weather this month. The main action today will be in Iowa, Nebraska, and eastern Kansas, which the Storm Prediction Center has placed at "Moderate" risk of severe weather.

Jeff Masters

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Lightning in D.C.
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The railroad bridge downton near 6th street swept away by massive flooding. You can see the rails are bent down into the raging waters.
Flood of 2008 Waterloo, Ia
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430. extreme236
1:37 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
New blog
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
429. MasterForecaster
1:35 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Goodmorning everyone!

In regards to the rain in south florida, can someone tell me where storms are expected today? and which way they will be headed (the flow of the storms)?

thanks
428. aspectre
1:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Anybody watching how the wave south of CapeVerde's been doing? Or did it die?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
427. HIEXPRESS
1:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Gulf ULL only down to about FL20 - no problem there. This blog just loaded
n
a
r
r
o
w
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
426. 69Viking
1:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
421. IKE

I'm hoping some of the rain bands break off and head up the NW Florida way. With a 60% chance through Sat. the weather gods must be expecting that to happen too.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3025
425. HIEXPRESS
1:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
A post from STROMTOP still appears, but the ID handle link yields:
ERROR
This user does not appear to have a WunderBlog.

Not taking sides - I do find the posts amusing all claims of being a professional aside. How do we tell? The pros are frequently wrong too. The multiple IDs are offensive. StormTrop - how about getting one ID & cut out the counterproductive posting?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
424. Nolehead
1:09 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
504 lol!! i really bet so now that they are in HD now...still it's nice to see that cutie Heather in the morning...talking being all into tehmselves i can only imagine how Mr.Doom and Gloom Cantory is..LOL
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
423. TheWeatherMan504
1:06 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Dude you should see them behind the scenes they are all into themselves they put on a ton of make-up,they talk about eachother behind there backs, and there are sex-scandals and stuff the most recent one was a month ago.thats how crazy it is there.lol
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
422. Nolehead
1:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
504, yeah i kinda figured that...but hey they can keep Steph Abrams, heather tesch and jen carfagno...and dump the rest...lol
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
421. IKE
1:00 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
That slug of moisture in the GOM is headed NNW toward LA. and points eastward.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
420. Nolehead
12:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
the swamp is a great venue to watch a concert....there CD is very good i do recommend getting it...just might have to check out candlebox in Aug.
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
419. extreme236
12:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
416.

Well unfortunately there are multiple other storms unless there all banned...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
418. IKE
12:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
416. hcubed 7:56 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Thank you ADMIN.

When you click on the "STORMTTOP" name, you see this:

"This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs."


I'll 2nd that...AMEN!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
417. IKE
12:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
The buoy 180 miles south of Southwest Pass,LA...

"Updated: 6:50 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Air Temperature: 76° F
Humidity: 95
Wind direction (W Dir): SSE (145 - 154 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 25.3 kts (29.1 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 31.1 kts (35.8 mph)

Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 6 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 2.30 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 2.3 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 6 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.99 in
Pressure Tendency (PT): +0.04 in
Decreasing or steady, then increasing; or increasing, then increasing more rapidly"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
416. hcubed
12:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Thank you ADMIN.

When you click on the "STORMTTOP" name, you see this:

"This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
415. TheWeatherMan504
12:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
409. Nolehead 12:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
funny how the weather channel this morning just automatically assume that this blob in th GOM will not turn into anything...we need a weather channel 2 that gives us the real possibilities..put all the factors in place...guess they just forgot how dang hot it is in the GOM...


I work there and I know most of the people you see on tv are not meteorologist they are weather announcers who read a screen. Now Dr. Gray, Dr. Hurricane, and Jim are real Meteorologist.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
414. 69Viking
12:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
412. Nolehead

They surprised me how good they were live outdoors at the Swamp. I hadn't bought their CD yet but will after seeing the concert. What a great place to watch concerts overlooking the GOM! Candlebox is there Aug. 13th, another Wed.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3025
413. 69Viking
12:50 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
409. Nolehead

I know what you mean. They didn't even mention the 91L Invest yesterday afternoon. I'm sure it will just be a rain maker but you never know with the waters as warm as they are.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3025
412. Nolehead
12:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
dang viking!! how were they?? love there music..would have went if it wasn't during the dang week...
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
411. IKE
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
397. biff4ugo 7:10 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Sharks are beautiful, horrific power can be both stunning and lovely. There is no malice or evil intent in a cloud, even if it harbors lightning or adds rain that becomes floodwaters miles and miles away.
Not all of us watch the news on the ground. Feel free to enlighten folks with compassion and information you have learned but otherwise keep your flipped out flame wars to yourself.


The deadly tornadoes were talked about on here last night.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
410. 69Viking
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
407. TheWeatherM

Good morning everyone! The Gulf looked beautiful watching Saving Abel in concert at the Swamp last night! Then I went home and saw the Blob! Hopefully it's just a rain maker that florida really needs right now. Those poor souls in Iowa I'm sure would be glad to share some of the rain they're getting. The Blob has bumped our rain chances to 60% through Saturday.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3025
409. Nolehead
12:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
funny how the weather channel this morning just automatically assume that this blob in th GOM will not turn into anything...we need a weather channel 2 that gives us the real possibilities..put all the factors in place...guess they just forgot how dang hot it is in the GOM...
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
408. Michfan
12:32 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Good morning everyone. The blob in the GOM looks like it might bear some watching. Lots of dry air to its west though so if it were to develop it looks like it would entrain some of that in hindering development. Have to see what QSCAT and ASCAT pick up today on it.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732
407. TheWeatherMan504
12:26 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
We need to watch the gulf.
Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1042
406. Patrap
12:24 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
NHC Home Page with the GTWO Link

0600 Surface Map Link

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
405. Patrap
12:22 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
GOES-12 3-Channel GOM views Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
404. Patrap
12:20 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
GOES IR Loop of the Gulf of Mexico Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
403. stormdude77
12:19 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Morning everyone

I've updated my blog...with a tropical update, of the atlantic...Link
402. Patrap
12:19 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
USGS Real-Time Water Data for the Nation Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
401. MahFL
12:18 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Oh....that blob in the GOM does look interesting......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
400. Patrap
12:17 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
The noaa SPC site has all that info. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
399. biff4ugo
12:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
P.S. I'm glad Dr. Masters is back from his trip.
Hope he has good photos.

Does WU publish cumulative daily rainfall maps? They are helpful for calculating waterlevels and slugs moving downstream.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1570
398. Patrap
12:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
Product Description \ 7-Day Image Archive Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
397. biff4ugo
12:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
Sharks are beautiful, horrific power can be both stunning and lovely. There is no malice or evil intent in a cloud, even if it harbors lightning or adds rain that becomes floodwaters miles and miles away.
Not all of us watch the news on the ground. Feel free to enlighten folks with compassion and information you have learned but otherwise keep your flipped out flame wars to yourself.

Does WU have maps that show the ITCZ?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1570
396. IKE
11:43 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Added.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
395. IKE
11:42 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
387. Circle 6:13 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
Is a hurricane ugly? Was Kathrina ugly to look at? Must be allowed to admire structure and power, although it causes death and devastation.


True...but the way he/she phrased it showed no heart. I'll just add them to my ever-growing ignore list.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
394. extreme236
11:39 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Interesting weather discussion from the NWS in Houston/Galveston. Wind shear is decreasing but the convection needs persistence.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
393. guygee
11:36 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
NOAA Says Little Prospect of Immediate Relief from Central States Flooding

With record flooding underway in many central United States locations and disaster declarations common in several states, NOAA Weather forecasters say the prospect of dry conditions is not in the immediate forecast.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service interactive flood map by NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows 31 locations in major flooding. All those sites but three along the southern Illinois-Indiana state line are clustered in southern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, the Illinois-Iowa state line and eastern and central Iowa. Much of that area is at risk of severe weather into the weekend.

The map is available at http://www.weather.gov/ahps/index.php?stage=6.

There are 77 gauge locations at the moderate flooding level, expanded slightly from the major flood level area to include parts of South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri.

According to NOAA/National Weather Service reports revised this morning, Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle has declared a state of emergency for 30 counties. Nearly all major rivers in Wisconsin are at or near flood stage. Evacuations have been urged or conducted beneath the Wyocena and Pardeeville dams in Columbia County, about 30 miles north of Madison. Waukesha officials shut down several downtown bridges over the Fox River as water levels reached 35-year highs.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels requested farm disaster declarations from Secretary of Agriculture Edward Schafer for 44 counties in the state.

Des Moines, Iowa, officials began closing downtown bridges Tuesday in anticipation of water topping the spans. Waterloo officials closed the downtown area and five bridges serving the city, and asked downtown residents and business owners to evacuate. Part of a railroad bridge across the Cedar River at Waterloo was swept away and hit a downstream bridge forcing its closure. Three runaway barges on the Mississippi River rammed the Dubuque-East Dubuque, Ill., bridge causing it to be closed indefinitely.

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich declared six southeastern Illinois counties to be disaster areas: Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Jasper and Lawrence. A levee break, Tuesday, in Lawrence County, near the Indiana border, sent water from the Embarrass River pouring into homes and farms. About 200 homes were evacuated as water reached to the roofs of some buildings. A levee break along the Wabash River near Westport, Ill., caused evacuations from St. Francisville.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center both call for severe thunderstorms today for parts of the worst-hit areas and adjoining states. Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks are available at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook. Today's national map of rain and flooding risks is at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.pdf.

The public can keep up with changing conditions and local forecasts by selecting the desired location on the national weather map at http://weather.gov. Precipitation forecasts can be found at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Flash Flood Warning
Flood Warning
Flood Advisory
Flood Watch
Flash Flood Watch
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
392. TexasRiverRat
11:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND IN AND
AROUND GALVESTON BAY AND ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SOME
TIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...WILL CARRY ONLY ISOLATED
POPS FOR SHOWERS CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH MID 90S INLAND AND AROUND
90 ALONG THE COAST. WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE ON FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WORKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE SETTING UP LATE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SATURDAY AS >2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WORK THEIR WAY INLAND.
WILL CALL FOR HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH RAINS IN THE AREA.
SOME DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
RAIN FREE AS TEMPERATURES WARM. NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST IS STILL DEPENDENT
ON HOW FAR WEST UPPER RIDGING MOVES AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCES
CAN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM A DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THINK IT IS STILL BEST RIGHT NOW TO CARRY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AS IF RAINS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND CALL FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND
AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST. IF ORGANIZED RAINS DO MAKE IT INTO OUR
AREA...LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE GULF DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LOUISIANA WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS THAT TIME OF THE
YEAR. 42
&&

391. Cavin Rawlins
11:21 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
I posted an update to the tropics in my comment section of my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
389. eye
11:16 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Katrina was actually looking quite ragged at landfall, eyewall replacement cycle was occuring.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
388. eye
11:14 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
we had plenty of storms form the past couple seasons in 20+ kt of shear.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
387. Circle
11:13 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Is a hurricane ugly? Was Kathrina ugly to look at? Must be allowed to admire structure and power, although it causes death and devastation.
386. IKE
11:11 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
377. TampaSpin 5:13 AM CDT on June 12, 2008
373. STORMTTOP 1:47 AM EDT on June 12, 2008
Some nice looking stormtops lately in the midwest.

What a true idiot.......NICE you gotta be kidding.........what an irresponsible stupid comment to make after children are dead from those storms.


I can't believe he said that....does he/she have no heart?????

Admin needs to stop this talk on here by him/her....please!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
382. TampaSpin
10:47 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
The Blob in the GOM is under low Shear also it needs monitored very close although i could not find in pressures falling below normal in the area of the blob....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
381. TampaSpin
10:40 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
Before i go there is some serious blow up in the GOM.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
380. TampaSpin
10:34 AM GMT on June 12, 2008
It does appear the main circulation of 91L will go North of South America in my opinion..have a good day everyone. Off to work.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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