Tropics remain quiet, typical for June

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on June 09, 2008

Share this Blog
2
+

Although we got an early start to the 2008 hurricane season, things have since slowed down and returned to normal. I spent quite some time this morning scouring through the models and satellite images looking for some signs of tropical development, but none was to be found. The only action in the Atlantic is a weak upper level low moving from the Bahamas across South Florida today. Conditions are not favorable for development as the low enters the Gulf of Mexico.

2xat_vi.gif
Atlantic visible satellite

It is still very early in the season. Usually we wouldn't have seen a single storm by this point. Considering that the official long term 'forecasts' all called for climatology, this season remains unremarkable. We're still a couple months away from things getting very exciting.

peakofseason.gif
Hurricane frequency by date (Credit: NOAA)

If you're looking for tropical development in the Atlantic at this time of year, your best bet is looking in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. It is still very early to see development in the Atlantic proper. Wind shear is still strong at higher latitudes and the central Atlantic has yet to warm to temperatures conducive for tropical development.

June_climo.jpg
June hurricane genesis index and locations (Emanuel and Nolan 2004)

Elsewhere in the country, the severe weather situation seems to have quieted down from earlier in the season. While there are still active areas associated with frontal boundaries draped across the eastern half of the continent, they are significantly less active than earlier this season. Usually by June the severe weather season shifts to the High Plains. Those storms are associated with potential vorticity anomalies advecting off of the Rockies. Below you will find a map of yesterday's severe reports. A similar, though slightly advected pattern is expected today.

080608_rpts.gif
Yesterday's severe weather reports from SPC

Bryan Woods, filling in for Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1420 - 1370

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

1420. IKE
4:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1416. txalwaysprepared 11:20 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
IKE thanks for answering my question :)


Your welcome.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1419. DaytonaBeachWatcher
4:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
new blog
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
1418. moonlightcowboy
4:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1414. And, the BAMMS are probably more accurate at this point than most of any others would be. Of course, doesn't look like some of them are even picking it up yet! LOL, it'll be interesting to see the GFDL get on here and start squirming back and forth and around.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1416. txalwaysprepared
4:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
IKE thanks for answering my question :)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1415. sky1989
4:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
I think that even if 91L fails to become any stronger it is still significant that it got as strong as it did since it is only early June. The tropics will probably be very interesting when mid-July comes.
Member Since: June 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1414. Drakoen
4:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1412. IKE 4:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1406. Drakoen 11:04 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link

Looks like a WNW direction.


Yea. It will probably graze by the northern South American coast. The low-level steering currents in the Caribbean is similar to what the BAMS model is showing.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30616
1413. Cavin Rawlins
4:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
the link's on my blog
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1412. IKE
4:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1406. Drakoen 11:04 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link


Looks like a WNW direction.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1411. rareaire
4:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
im mowing my grass here in oklahoma like i would if i lived in the south. we have had so much rain i cant even get on the lakes. the other day we launched our boat from a parking lot. Were scheduled for rain tomorrow and friday as well..... I think I saw a cat with gills the other day!!
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
1410. stoormfury
4:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
456
do you have the latest QuickScat of 91L?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
1409. moonlightcowboy
4:08 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1407. LOL, K'man. Yeah, it's time for our "lookout" down there on the point to start giving us first-hand storm reports! ;P
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1408. KarenRei
4:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Yeah, all of the stuff that we on the tributaries are experiencing is going to end up in the Mississippi, so the end of our disaster could be the start of theirs.

The ducks seem to love it, though :P Every where you go, happy-looking ducks paddling around former parks and neighborhood streets.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1407. kmanislander
4:04 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Hi MLC

Not on really that much this morning-- work to do LOL

Will check in later to see if 91L scrapes by over Trinidad and Tobago.

I guess Pottery will have to take another look at his calabash tree leaves LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15904
1406. Drakoen
4:04 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Here's the FTP site to the Ships intensity forecast. You can see what there are based on.
Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30616
1405. Patrap
4:02 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
GOES-12 GOM IR Loop Link

Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) GOES-12 3 Channel views Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1404. 69Viking
4:02 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1386. smmcdavid

Good morning back at you SMMC! Yep, something tropical to watch and talk about this morning.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3078
1403. 69Viking
4:00 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1398. KarenRei

Ouch, sorry to here that KarenRei. I grew up in SE MN near the mighty Mississippi river and it's never a good thing when that river floods.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3078
1402. IKE
3:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
398. KarenRei 10:53 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
Meh, I've hardly noticed the boring tropics, as I've been turning my muscles to jello trying to sandbag against the rising waters here in the midwest :P (Iowa City). That jet stream has been a nightmare for us; we're going to be going over our "100 year flood" mark by a (un)healthy margin.


Sorry to read of your troubles...good luck...hope it gets better!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1401. moonlightcowboy
3:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Photobucket

Obstacles and inhibitors yet to overcome.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1400. Cavin Rawlins
3:57 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Invest 91L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1399. OUSHAWN
3:55 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
I wouldn't make too much of 91L. It looks destined to meet it's death when it hits SA as so many of these waves have done..."the graveyard" for those waves that never seem to catch enough latitude.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1398. KarenRei
3:53 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Meh, I've hardly noticed the boring tropics, as I've been turning my muscles to jello trying to sandbag against the rising waters here in the midwest :P (Iowa City). That jet stream has been a nightmare for us; we're going to be going over our "100 year flood" mark by a (un)healthy margin.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1397. weathermanwannabe
3:53 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1395. 69Viking 11:47 AM EDT on June 11, 2008 Thats exactly what makes this "science" so unpredictable; you need to have many of the primary factors, including track and proximity to land, "gel" at any given point in time for a particular wave to make it all the way to a closed circulation and TD status..........This one (and it is only a wave and not a TD at this point) may be riding a little too low and the proximity to land will make it difficult to form a closed low......You make a point as to "disruption" of an exisitng storm, but here, we are lookin at hinderances to cyclo-genisis; proximity to land is a very real impediment to this system....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
1396. Michfan
3:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1392 you may have been right about the invest but the ASCAT didn't support it having a closed low as you had clamed. There were no westerly winds associated with it, which still makes it an open circulation. It may close up as the day progresses.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1736
1395. 69Viking
3:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1367. weathermanwannabe

I agree, the close proximity to SA will hinder development but then again look at our two previous tropical storms that didn't die very fast over land in the mountains of Central America.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3078
1394. Michfan
3:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
I see we have something to watch finally. Its been boring as of late.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1736
1393. weathermanwannabe
3:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
These "low rider" waves will probably present the greatest threat to the Greater Antilles/Gulf earlier this season (if the A/B highs "set" in place near the current locations)....But, once the ITCZ lifts a little more, come August, they will probably be moving further North towards the northernm tier of the Lesser Antilles, and, that dreaded US approach through the Turks and Caicos........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
1392. stoormfury
3:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
well i got it right with my very early posting of the ascat pic. i even suggested that it was an invest. BRAVO
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
1391. moonlightcowboy
3:35 PM GMT on June 11, 2008


Vorticity looks better than it did last night at the 850mb (left) level and at 700mb. Also, the vorticity area is in an area of less shear as opposed to the area further north where the convection was getting ripped yesterday evening late.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1390. nrtiwlnvragn
3:35 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1387. WeatherfanPR

I don't think so, based on Best Track data NHC/TPC have been tracking it since last night.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
1389. kingy
3:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
H'mm, this is almost looking like a fast-forming invest. Surprising so early in the season and also surprising that conditions have been unfavourable really. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come
1388. Nolehead
3:32 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
lol, makes you wonder if everything is a suprise to NHC nowadays..
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
1387. WeatherfanPR
3:30 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
I think this invest it's a surprise for the NHC.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
1386. smmcdavid
3:30 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Good morning all!

So, what are the thoughts about our new invest?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
1385. 69Viking
3:29 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1366. moonlightcowboy

Yikes, as I've said the water is warm. Notice that warm patch in the NE Gulf, yep, that's where I live which means chances are a storm is going to continue to strengthen as it approaches the coast. Generally in the past the coastal waters are cooler and storms weeken just before landfall.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3078
1384. moonlightcowboy
3:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1375. G'morning, k'man. Yeah, the low level easterly flow looks like it's going to run right into sAmerica. Look out, Pottery! lol

But, too, it's been part of a large twave and as it gets under less shear, that center may egress more northwards to where more of the convection was yesterday. Slim chances, but it could still happen. It's in warmer waters, so it'll be interesting to see if it can keep building convection during the day.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1383. weathermanwannabe
3:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1375. kmanislander 11:18 AM EDT on June 11, 2008...Hey K-Man...I agree....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
1381. Drakoen
3:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
The NHC thinks thats 91L's 1012mb low will just barely scrape the South American coast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30616
1380. condesa
3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
838.0 hPa - Cuernavaca
774.02 hPa- Mexico City
90- 100% humidity
We're at 5800-7200 ft. elevation.
1379. cchsweatherman
3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
Wind shear in the Southern and Central Caribbean has been dropping at a steady clip now and could become favorable for tropical development in the next 48 hours based upon the current trends.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1377. Nolehead
3:19 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
well yeah that's true also...that's why they need to start drilling in other places, but that's for another place for that blog...sorry everyone..
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
1375. kmanislander
3:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
91L looks to be on a due W track which will take it ashore along the N coast of SA.

Unless it gains latitude quickly it may not be around this evening.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15904
1374. atmoaggie
3:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?

You must exclusively use biofuels.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1373. IKE
3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1372. Nolehead 10:15 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?


Gas prices.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1372. Nolehead
3:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
all i ask is for a nice storm to stay put in the GOM for about 2 weeks...pump out some great surf and then just disapate. no harm no foul...is that too much to ask for?
Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1934
1371. IKE
3:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
1368. txalwaysprepared 10:12 AM CDT on June 11, 2008
When was 91L named? This morning?


Within the last hour.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1370. cchsweatherman
3:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2008
See that we now have Invest 91L. Not a surprise to me. Looks very good right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169

Viewing: 1420 - 1370

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.