Jet stream moved northwards 270 miles in 22 years; climate change to blame?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on June 05, 2008

Share this Blog
3
+

Climate change is forcing the jet stream higher and closer to the pole in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, according research published this April in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In their paper, "Historical trends in the jet streams", researchers Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of Stanford's Carnegie Institution of Washington analyzed data from 1979-2001, and found that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream moved northward at approximately 125 miles per decade (270 miles during the 22-year period of the study). The jet moved higher by 5-23 meters during this period, and the wind speeds decreased by about 1 mph. Archer and Caldeira's study confirms other research showing a poleward movement of the jet stream in recent decades (Fu et al., 2006; Hu and Fu, 2007). All of these changes are consistent with the behavior of the jet stream predicted by global warming theory. For example, Lorenz and DeWeaver (2007) found poleward shifts of the jet stream by 2100 in the forecasts of 15 climate models used to formulate the "official" word on climate, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report. However, the authors were careful not to say how much of this shift in the jet stream was due to natural causes versus human-caused climate change. It is unknown if the jet stream has natural decades-long changes in its path that could account for the observed poleward shift.


Figure 1. The jet stream is located where the strongest winds at the top of the troposphere are found (35,000-45,000 feet high, 200-300 mb in pressure).

Archer and Caldeira note that "These changes in jet stream latitude, altitude, and strength have likely affected, and perhaps will continue to affect, the formation and evolution of storms in the mid-latitudes and of hurricanes in the sub-tropical regions." They don't specify what these changes might be. There is very little research that has been done suggesting how changes in the jet stream might affect hurricane formation and strength. One effect we may begin to see in coming decades is a reduction and/or delay in the number of hurricanes that recurve northward out to sea. Recurvature occurs when a hurricane begins to "feel" the westerly winds of the jet stream. As the jet stream continues to move northward and weaken as the globe warms, we can expect that hurricanes moving though the Caribbean will be less likely to recurve, resulting in more hurricane strikes in Mexico and Central America. Unfortunately, the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database for non-U.S. landfalls is not very good, and it will be several decades before we will be able to tell if the number of hurricane landfalls in Mexico and Central America is increasing due to a poleward shift in the jet stream.

References
Fu, Q., C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, and T. Reichler (2006), Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements, Science, 312, 1179, doi:10.1126/science.1125566.

Hu, Y., and Q. Fu (2007), Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Disc., 7, 9367.9384.

Lorenz, D. J., and E. T. DeWeaver (2007), Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10119, doi:10.1029/2006JD008087.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 564 - 514

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

564. guygee
5:02 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
545. GainesvilleGator 4:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
The issue making the price of Crude go thru the roof isn't the fear of running out of it in 20 years it has to do with "Peak Oil" theory. This pretty much says that demand will be greater than supply at some point in the future. This will cause shortages which will lead to higher prices. Most information I have read says we have a greater than 50 year supply of crude.

Bottom line, we are not running out of crude anytime soon but supplies will be tight unless we find alternative resources.


Technically we will not run out of crude oil and its byproducts, but speaking in practical terms if you cannot afford to pay $5, $10, $15.../gal for gasoline, then your ability to pay has run out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
563. Drakoen
5:06 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Good afternoon everyone! I see talk about the wave east of the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30202
561. OSUWXGUY
5:00 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Too early to say what steering pattern will be more common later this summer.

In May, there were was troughing near the East Coast...which would mean more fish storm. Now the first week of June we have a pattern of strong ridging over the SE United States...but the long range models show this being broken down for the second and third weeks of June and a more Zonal flow...

Lot of good 1,7,30 and 90 day anomalies can be found here.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
560. weathermanwannabe
1:00 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
554. Weather456 12:59 PM EDT on June 06, 2008 You are also "The Man" with the Charts, and, CCHS is right behind you; between you guys and Storm, we have a pretty good base from which to learn and speculate; maybe I'll graduate to the nice charts and analysis "lines" next season!......WW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
559. stormdude77
12:58 PM AST on June 06, 2008
Very impressive Twave at 11N, 56W...and it's holding ''strong'' convection, even in the Dmin. I located just NW of the wave, here in Barbados...I'll let y'all know what I observe this evening...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
558. Stoopid1
5:01 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Hey Weather456, Good observation about the ULL at 25 N, 68 W. I didn't even notice that feature until I saw your blog.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
557. Floodman
5:03 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
552. NEwxguy

The tropics especially, man...never a dull moment!

So how's by you? Summer getting there yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
556. Stoopid1
4:57 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Seems our wave may be about to hit a little break in the shear next to Trinidad. I don't think it will help development too much, though.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
555. cchsweatherman
12:59 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
Nice to see you again CaneAddict! Just from the last few images, it looks like the tropical wave may be falling apart just as fast as it developed. Still bares watching. Right now, I give it a 5% chance for further tropical development and 20% chance for tagging as an invest.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
554. Weather456
12:09 PM AST on June 06, 2008
I have updated my blog

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
553. CaneAddict
4:26 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Good Afternoon Folks!

Have not been blogging for a few, Been very busy trying to do things but i do take notice of a VERY impressive tropical wave/tropical low in the Central Atlantic....This area should be tagged an Invest very soon. Tropical depression status looks possible with this area but conditions may not allow it. Definitly interesting though,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
552. NEwxguy
4:54 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Flood,
Its what I love about weather,you can look at all the charts and computer models and trends and past history,but in the end you just have to "wait and see"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
551. cchsweatherman
12:52 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
Updated Shear Map

Updated Shear Tendency Map

Latest Visible Satellite Image
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
550. Floodman
4:49 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
546. NEwxguy

I just saw it, NEwx...it is a bit early to make a final determination; the eternal tropical weather "wait and see" conundrum
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
549. catastropheadjuster
4:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
GG- I didn't say it wasn't weather related I was just honestly wondering if anything was going on in the tropics. That's all just a very simple question.
Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:39 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
track mark57.1w 10.6n nw movement
that area at 67.3 w/25.8n lacking convection at this time but may flare shortly as well iam wwatchin that area as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
547. Floodman
4:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Ahhh, wannabe, my friend...drinking and relaxing on the beach. Lucky man!

As for the high, position is everything, but a weaker nearer high will make for interesting times on the east coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
546. NEwxguy
4:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Flood,
Did you see Storms tropical analysis earlier,he hinted at the high a little farther south,possibly curving CV ways out to sea,but still too early.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
545. GainesvilleGator
4:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
The issue making the price of Crude go thru the roof isn't the fear of running out of it in 20 years it has to do with "Peak Oil" theory. This pretty much says that demand will be greater than supply at some point in the future. This will cause shortages which will lead to higher prices. Most information I have read says we have a greater than 50 year supply of crude.

Bottom line, we are not running out of crude anytime soon but supplies will be tight unless we find alternative resources.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
544. weathermanwannabe
12:40 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
543. Floodman 12:39 PM EDT on June 06, 2008

Been fine (still have a job)and sporting a nice tan from the beach last weekend (and most of the alcohol is out of my system); looking at the charts this am, seems like the A/B high is still positioned in the Central Atlantic (not that close to the US) so we will have to see where it sets; it will make all the difference come August & September.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
543. Floodman
4:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
541. weathermanwannabe

Hey, wannabe, how you been?

It was my understanding that the high was going to be somewhat weaker and closer to the CONUS for most of the season, meaning considerably less fish storms and more chance of landfalls and near misses...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
542. stoormfury
4:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
cchs
yes the structure of the wave is getting better with every frame and i quite agree that the system does look like an invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
541. weathermanwannabe
12:34 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
540. Floodman 12:33 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
Hey Storm, how you doing? I'm with wannabe; is there any indication as to the position of the A/B high? A "final" position, that is?


Hey Bro....If it does set in place in the relative current postiion, then the "lowriders" will present the greatest threat, and, the "highriders" will generate some fish storms.....IMHO

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
540. Floodman
4:32 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Hey Storm, how you doing? I'm with wannabe; is there any indication as to the position of the A/B high? A "final" position, that is?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
539. Floodman
4:29 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
504. LakeShadow

Lake, how are they geting around the cost of the production? The return numbers I was seeing on Hydro-fuel cells was .06-1; they say that better extraction technologies are becoming available, but it takes large amounts of electricty to produce hydrogen, despite the fact that there are abundant supplies of hydrogen all over the planet.

Where the hell is Emmet Brown and his Mr. Fusion when you need him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
538. groundswell
4:27 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
The T-wave at 55w is not dying-if anything, it's improving in structure & holding convection. Let's see if the 2:05 update has a special feature (probaby not)-Hopefully Kimberlain is reporting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
537. weathermanwannabe
12:25 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
530. StormW 12:14 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
486.Not right now I don't...if the CFS model is correct in the strentgh and mean position of the A/B high.


Thanks Storm; You Da Man....So do you think that the A/B high has "set" in place for the Summer yet?............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
536. GainesvilleGator
4:17 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
From post #508 "Is there anything going on in the tropics, i have read thru most the blog and the only thing being talked about is Nuclear energy plants,lightning,and other stuff. Just wondering."

Sheri

This is all related to the weather via the global warming debate.

Do they still have those "Never mind the dog, beware of owner" signs?

Never mind global warming, beware of high energy prices.

Crude, Natural Gas, & Coal will all go up over time with increasing demand if alternative energy sources are not used. We put all of our energy eggs in one basket with the burning of fossil fuels. Yes, depending on OPEC and the coal cartel is a losing strategy.

I think the best solution is to build a slew of nuclear power plants in the U.S. even if we have to pay for them via a carbon tax. We can work solar, thermal, & wind into the mix as well. The bottom line is we need cheap electricity immune to price shocks related to politics, commodity trading & Wall Street pumping.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
535. Patrap
11:25 AM CDT on June 06, 2008
Ummmmmmmmmm,new data sets..yum,yum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
534. help4u
4:20 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
45 trillion nedded to defeat global warming.MY man Obama will be fair ,where the money comes from.Big oil,ford,ge,wal-mart,big business,will have to come up with their billions to save the planet.Change is coming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
533. CJ5
4:19 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
The wave at 56/12 continues to plow along. It is entering a moister enviro so it made it through the drier air that threaten it over the last few days. It has managed to maintain its flow and convection over the past few days as well. Shear in the area will be the deciding factor in the next 24-48hrs. It keeps plugging along.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
532. cchsweatherman
12:12 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
524. stoormfury 12:03 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
cchs
good flare up with trop wave. it appears that there is a LLC near 10N 56W associated with this ares of disturbed weather. no information on wind shear site down, and quickscat shows nothing at the moment. 500miles east of trinidad still more time for a little more organisation. what is your take on this system


Just based upon the latest satellite imagery, it would appear that there is enough to warrant an invest, but without the wind shear maps and newer data from QuikSCAT (last update on the area occured at 20:23UTC time or about 16 hours ago), it remains difficult to analyze what may be causing this recent convective activity and infant organization as well as the possible future for this wave. When we get in some new data, then we can make a better determination regarding the system.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
531. Patrap
11:15 AM CDT on June 06, 2008
Eyewitness to D-Day..June 6 1944 Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
529. myway
4:06 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
If you can read this
Thank a teacher
If are reading it in English
Thank the armed forces.

I thank the vetrans who made blogs like this and freedom possible. I hope all remember thoes who did not make it (3393), 64 years ago today. It is because of them that we enjoy our lives today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
528. Stoopid1
4:07 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Something interesting to read as far as tropical activity goes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_central_Pacific_cyclone

Track data (unofficial)

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/nov06tks.txt
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
527. nrtiwlnvragn
12:07 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
523. presslord

No intent to trump you, in response to 520.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
526. Patrap
11:04 AM CDT on June 06, 2008
Nice dataset showing animation sequence of hurricanes developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Shown on the earth on a sphere at NOAA, Boulder, CO

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
525. kilgores97
4:05 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
"However, the authors were careful not to say how much of this shift in the jet stream was due to natural causes versus human-caused climate change. It is unknown if the jet stream has natural decades-long changes in its path that could account for the observed poleward shift." Why bother doing a study if you're going to come to this conclusion? Please....all this global warming stuff is a hoax. A way for the government to control our lives even moreso than they already do and force us to pay more in taxes. The Earth goes through cyclical warming and cooling. It's just that man now has tools to study it and these "startling" conclusions are suddenly being blamed on man when they have existed all along.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
524. stoormfury
3:56 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
cchs
good flare up with trop wave. it appears that there is a LLC near 10N 56W associated with this ares of disturbed weather. no information on wind shear site down, and quickscat shows nothing at the moment. 500miles east of trinidad still more time for a little more organisation. what is your take on this system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
523. presslord
12:01 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
OK nrt...I'll grant that you trumped me....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
522. nrtiwlnvragn
12:00 PM EDT on June 06, 2008
D-Day, June 6, 1944
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
521. presslord
11:58 AM EDT on June 06, 2008
as a matter of fact .....it is National Doughnut Day....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
520. help4u
3:54 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Happy global warming day ,everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. Stoopid1
3:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Disturbed weather at 10 N, 56 W looks really good, but shear is high and surrounding air is on the dry side. Water temperature is marginal, about 80. I don't expect anything just yet.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2725
518. cchsweatherman
11:49 AM EDT on June 06, 2008
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
517. nrtiwlnvragn
11:47 AM EDT on June 06, 2008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
516. franck
3:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
Presslord...nothing much tropical going on. I have a suggestion though. Dr. Masters might be encouraged to rename the blog 'cyclonic weather' or some other name more inclusive of the inland storms occuring in the country at present. This might bring more focus on a problem much more serious than the hurricane threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:59 AM EDT on June 06, 2008
trackmark 56.9w/10.3n area of disturb weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
514. NorthxCakalaky
3:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2008
COLUMBIA, N.C. -- Smoke from an eastern North Carolina wildfire is causing school delays in some nearby counties while firefighters hope light winds may help them contain the growing blazes.

School delays were announced in three counties. The National Weather Service issued a dense smoke advisory until 9 a.m. Friday for Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell, Beaufort and mainland Hyde counties.

The fire has burned more than 28,000 acres on the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge and on adjacent private lands.

It started on private land Sunday with a lightning strike and spread onto the refuge Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 564 - 514

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
70 °F
Partly Cloudy